MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

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END 8TH+2CIN

HOU

16-23

CIN

20-19

Live · model leanEnd 8thPolls every 30s

64.1%

CIN wins · current

Pre-game: 56.7% CIN

HOU 1 · 3 CIN

CIN +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 8

away leadsCIN leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingCINBottom 5th Inning · 1-2
+22pp→ 80% WP
McLain · singled to left, Benson scored and Steer scored, McLain to second, Trevino safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Cole.
Lead flipHOUTop 5th Inning · 1-0
+16pp→ 55% WP
Shewmake · homered to right center (388 feet).

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 4.16

S. Arrighetti

4-0 · 1.96 ERA

C. Burns

3-1 · 2.20 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

CIN spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

CIN no-vig %

60.3%

open 58.3% · +2.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.4%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
56.7%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.4%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

85% confidence

Win prob · home

99.0%

+42.3ppvs pre-game · CIN favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.07

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+129

Close price

+141

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

39.7%

Market faded the model hard

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

CIN vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 51 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.6± 3.6low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
6.3± 4.5low
Peter LambertHOU
5.8± 3.5low

Hits

Christian WalkerHOU
1.2± 1.0high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.1± 0.9high
Spencer SteerCIN
1.0± 0.6high

Total bases

Zach ColeHOU
2.3± 2.8low
JJ BledayCIN
2.1± 2.8low
Brice MatthewsHOU
1.9± 2.5high

RBIs

Zach ColeHOU
1.3± 1.7low
Brice MatthewsHOU
0.7± 1.0high
JJ BledayCIN
0.6± 0.9low

Earned runs

Lance McCullers Jr.HOU
4.0± 2.5low
Mike BurrowsHOU
3.1± 2.5low
Brady SingerCIN
3.0± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

HOU

Astros

15-23

vs56.7%CIN

CIN★

Reds

20-18

HOU 43.3%win prob56.7% CIN

CIN 1495 · HOU 1472Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

MLBSat, May 9End 8thSeriesHOU leads series 1-0VegasCIN -163

Updated 0s ago

HOU · top performer

Braden Shewmake

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

RBI

CIN · top performer

Elly De La Cruz

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

End 8th

HOU16-23

CIN20-19

HOU16-23CIN20-19

HOU

16-23

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Altuve★2B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
Y. Alvarez★LF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	2	1
I. Paredes★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Walker★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Smith★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
Z. Cole★CF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Matthews★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Shewmake★2B	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
C. Vazquez★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
Z. DezenzoLF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	4-26	26	1	4	1	1	3	5

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
S. Arrighetti★SP	5.2	5	3	1	3	5	0
E. De Los SantosRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0
S. OkertRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. AbreuRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	8.0	5	3	1	3	7	0

CIN

20-19

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. Friedl★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Bleday★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. De La Cruz★SS	2-4	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
S. Stewart★1B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
N. Lowe★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Steer★LF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
W. Benson★RF	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	2	1
J. Trevino★C	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
M. McLain★2B	1-3	3	0	1	2	0	0	1
D. MyersCF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	5-27	27	3	5	3	0	3	7

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
C. Burns★SP	6.0	4	1	1	3	2	1
B. BurkeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0
G. AshcraftRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0
Team	8.0	4	1	1	3	5	1

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

S. Arrighetti
93 pitches26% CSW
- CU
  35%77.1 mph30% whiff
- FF
  34%92.7 mph22% whiff
- CH
  15%83.7 mph13% whiff
- ST
  9%79.8 mph0% whiff
- SI
  6%93.0 mph0% whiff
S. Okert
10 pitches10% CSW
- SL
  90%80.9 mph0% whiff
- FF
  10%90.4 mph0% whiff
E. De Los Santos
9 pitches67% CSW
- FF
  44%94.9 mph67% whiff
- CH
  33%87.1 mph100% whiff
- SL
  22%85.2 mph0% whiff
B. Abreu
5 pitches40% CSW
- SL
  100%83.9 mph50% whiff

CIN

C. Burns
87 pitches21% CSW
- FF
  57%98.0 mph13% whiff
- SL
  36%91.1 mph38% whiff
- CH
  7%90.6 mph0% whiff
G. Ashcraft
19 pitches26% CSW
- FC
  79%98.5 mph0% whiff
- SL
  21%89.9 mph50% whiff
B. Burke
8 pitches38% CSW
- SL
  50%86.1 mph0% whiff
- FF
  25%96.9 mph50% whiff
- CH
  13%87.3 mph0% whiff
- SI
  13%96.3 mph100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

HOU leads series 1-0

May 8

HOU10@

CIN0

May 9

HOU@

CINtoday

May 10

HOU@

CINupcoming

Season series

HOU leads series 1-0

May 8

HOU10@

CIN0

May 9

HOU@

CINtoday

May 10

HOU@

CINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CIN -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

0.5pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

HOU+13543%

CIN-16362%

8· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CIN -1.5↗SpreadBet CIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

9.0

+0.5 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

HOUSP

S. Arrighetti

#41 · 4-0

ERA

1.96

—

Last 3 starts

5/2@

BOS5.0 IP · 1 ER · 4 KW(4-0)

4/26vs

NYY7.0 IP · 1 ER · 8 KW(3-0)

4/20@

CLE5.0 IP · 2 ER · 3 KW(2-0)

CINSP

C. Burns

#26 · 3-1

ERA

2.20

—

Last 3 starts

5/3@

PIT7.0 IP · 0 ER · 7 K-

4/28vs

COL6.0 IP · 2 ER · 9 KW(3-1)

4/21@

TB5.2 IP · 2 ER · 8 KW(2-1)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

HOU3L · 6R

1
J. Altuve
2B · #27
R
2
Y. Alvarez
DH · #44
L
3
I. Paredes
3B · #15
R
4
C. Walker
1B · #8
R
5
C. Smith
RF · #11
R
6
Z. Cole
LF · #16
L
7
B. Matthews
CF · #0
R
8
B. Shewmake
SS · #28
L
9
C. Vazquez
C · #2
R

CIN4L · 4R · 1S

1
T. Friedl
CF · #29
L
2
J. Bleday
LF · #22
L
3
E. De La Cruz
SS · #44
B
4
S. Stewart
3B · #27
R
5
N. Lowe
DH · #31
L
6
S. Steer
1B · #7
R
7
W. Benson
RF · #30
L
8
J. Trevino
C · #35
R
9
M. McLain
2B · #9
R

Live · top performers so far

End 8th

Game flowHOU ↔ CIN

Recent swing: 6pp · Top 6th Inning

Just happened

End of the 8th inning

HOU

B. Shewmake

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

S. Arrighetti

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 6 K · 1 ER

CIN

E. De La Cruz

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

C. Burns

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 2 K · 1 ER

How it's going

CIN lead HOU 3-1 (End 8th). McLain's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Win probability

CIN vs HOU

Score progression

1 lead change

HOU1

CIN3

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

HOUTop 5th Inning · 1-0

+16pp→ 55% WP

Shewmake · homered to right center (388 feet).

CINBottom 5th Inning · 1-2

+22pp→ 80% WP

McLain · singled to left, Benson scored and Steer scored, McLain to second, Trevino safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Cole.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
CIN	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	—	3

Period scoring

HOU won 0 · CIN won 1

Inn 1

Inn 2

Inn 3

Inn 4

Inn 5

Shewmake 1

McLain 2

Inn 6

Inn 7

Inn 8

Inn 9

HOU

CIN

Play-by-play · 463 plays

period

event

player

End 8t
End of the 8th inning
HOU 1·CIN 3
B8
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
B8
Stewart flied out to center.
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
−0.6pp
B8
Pitch 5 : Ball In Play
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
B8
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
B8
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
B8
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
B8
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
B8
Bryan Abreu pitches to Sal Stewart
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
B8
Abreu relieved Okert
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
B8
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
B8
De La Cruz grounded out to third.
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
−0.8pp
B8
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
B8
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
B8
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
B8
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
B8
Steven Okert pitches to Elly De La Cruz
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
B8
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
B8
Bleday flied out to left.
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
−0.8pp
B8
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
B8
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
B8
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
B8
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
B8
Steven Okert pitches to JJ Bleday
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
B8
Bottom of the 8th inning
HOU 1·CIN 3
M8
Middle of the 8th inning
HOU 1·CIN 3
T8
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
T8
Alvarez struck out looking.
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
+1pp
T8
Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking
·
HOU 1·CIN 3
T8
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
·
HOU 1·CIN 3

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

CIN -1.5·O/U 9·HOU +135/CIN -163

DraftKings · via ESPN