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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5CIN
HOU

HOU

16-25

0
5
CIN

CIN

22-19

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
23,980 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CIN spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

CIN no-vig %

53.2%

open 53.2%

-1.0-2.0CIN SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL57.2%49.2%CIN NO-VIG %May 9, 11 PMMay 10, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

HOU 0 · CIN 5 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CIN +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0000000000
CIN000311005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 12, 26sim 97
    32
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 96
    213
    29(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 96
    44
    29(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 96
    181
    17(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 96
    211
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 95
    63
    4(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, May 10·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 2-1/VegasCIN -121

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds held off Houston Astros, 5–0.

CIN +1.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 9.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Cesar Salazar

Cesar Salazar

C

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
Elly De La Cruz

Elly De La Cruz

SS

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU16-25
0
5
CIN22-19
HOU16-25·CIN22-19
HOU

HOU

16-25

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT27.867
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
0-44000004
SPRINT24.64
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.18
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-33000001
SPRINT25.920
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-22000011
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
0-33000000
Z. ColeZ. Cole★LF
0-22000002
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
0-33000001
C. SalazarC. Salazar★C
1-33010000
Z. DezenzoZ. DezenzoLF
0-11000000
Team3-29290300110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. TengK. Teng★RP
3.0533110
A. BlubaughA. BlubaughRP
1.0100100
C. BoltonC. BoltonSP
2.0222341
J. MurrayJ. MurrayRP
1.0100000
L. VanWeyL. VanWeyRP
1.0000010
Team8.0955561
CIN

CIN

22-19

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. BensonW. Benson★RF
0-44000002
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
1-55111100
SPRINT28.483
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
3-44230000
SPRINT2872
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
1-44110002
SPRINT26.530
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
1-22112020
SPRINT27.457
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
1-44011001
SPRINT26.735
B. DunnB. Dunn★RF
1-33010010
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
0-22001020
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
1-44010001
Team9-3232595156
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. AbbottA. Abbott★SP
6.0300150
T. AntoneT. AntoneRP
1.0000020
S. MollS. MollRP
1.0000010
G. AshcraftG. AshcraftRP
1.0000020
Team9.03001100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • K. Teng
    63 pitches·30% CSW
    • ST
      38%·83.5 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      27%·93.6 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      13%·83.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      13%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      2%·86.4 mph·— whiff
  • C. Bolton
    50 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      46%·95.8 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      12%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      12%·95.1 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      12%·84.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      10%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·81.4 mph·— whiff
  • A. Blubaugh
    21 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      48%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      19%·83.9 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      14%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·88.3 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      5%·80.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Murray
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      45%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      36%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
  • L. VanWey
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • CH
      25%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·94.9 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      25%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·84.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      13%·92.2 mph·0% whiff

CIN

  • A. Abbott
    85 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      41%·93.1 mph·6% whiff
    • ST
      26%·82.1 mph·36% whiff
    • CH
      18%·86.3 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      15%·80.4 mph·57% whiff
  • S. Moll
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • ST
      41%·80.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      24%·92.4 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      18%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·90.5 mph·— whiff
  • T. Antone
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • ST
      62%·83.7 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      23%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.5 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Ashcraft
    12 pitches·50% CSW
    • SL
      83%·90.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      17%·98.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

9

0

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

CIN wins series 2-1

May 8HOUHOU10@CINCIN0
May 9HOUHOU1@CINCIN3
May 10HOUHOU0@CINCIN5today

Season series

CIN wins series 2-1

May 8HOUHOU10@CINCIN0
May 9HOUHOU1@CINCIN3
May 10HOUHOU0@CINCIN5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

HOUHOU+10050%
CINCIN-12155%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 4th Inning

HOUHOU
C. Salazar

C. Salazar

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

C. Bolton

C. Bolton

SP

Top reliever

2.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

CINCIN
E. De La Cruz

E. De La Cruz

SS

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 2 R · 1.500 OPS

A. Abbott

A. Abbott

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CIN beat HOU 5-0.

Win probability

CIN vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUBottom 2nd Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 50% WP

Stephenson · grounded into double play, pitcher to second to first, Bleday out at second.

CINBottom 4th Inning · 0-2
+13pp→ 85% WP

Bleday · tripled to right, De La Cruz scored and Stewart scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0000000000
CIN00031100—5

Period scoring

HOU won 0 · CIN won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
3

Inn 4

Bleday 2

0
1

Inn 5

McLain 1

0
1

Inn 6

Steer 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

HOU
CIN

Play-by-play · 531 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  2. T9

    Paredes struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  7. T9

    Graham Ashcraft pitches to Isaac Paredes

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  8. T9

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  9. T9

    Alvarez struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  15. T9

    Graham Ashcraft pitches to Yordan Alvarez

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  16. T9

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  17. T9

    Altuve grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  21. T9

    Graham Ashcraft pitches to Jose Altuve

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  22. T9

    Ashcraft relieved Moll

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  25. B8

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  26. B8

    Steer flied out to center.

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  27. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  28. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  29. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

  30. B8

    Logan VanWey pitches to Spencer Steer

    ·

    HOU 0·CIN 5

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

0

Runs

5

3

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

3

TB

16

0

HR

1

1

BB

5

10

K

6

6

LOB

17

Betting line

HOU -1.5·O/U 9.5·HOU +100/CIN -121

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brice MatthewsHOU · CF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Will BensonCIN · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

CIN vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.1%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    63.4%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.9%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    64.1%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.92 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.