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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1ARI
ATL

ATL

6-3

1
2
ARI

ARI

4-5

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
37,457 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

ARI spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

ARI no-vig %

50.6%

open 50.6%

+2.0+1.0ARI SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 9.0TOTAL54.6%46.6%ARI NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ATL 1 · ARI 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL0100000001
ARI020000002

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

52%Last 7 · 46-42
61%Last 30 · 309-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-107

Close price

-107

Open no-vig

49.4%

Close no-vig

49.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Sat, Apr 4·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasARI -113

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks held off Atlanta Braves, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ARI +1.5 cashed (ATL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 9.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Matt Olson

Matt Olson

1B

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Gabriel Moreno

Gabriel Moreno

C

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL6-3
1
2
ARI4-5
ATL6-3·ARI4-5
ATL

ATL

6-3

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
0-33000010
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
0-33000000
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-33010011
SPRINT25.513
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
0-44000002
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
0-33100012
SPRINT2744
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
0-44000001
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.148
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
1-33011000
SPRINT25.716
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
1-33010000
SPRINT26.428
Team4-3030141037
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ElderB. Elder★SP
7.0420180
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
1.0000010
Team8.0420190
ARI

ARI

4-5

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
0-33000002
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
0-22000011
SPRINT29.496
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-33000000
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
2-33120000
SPRINT26.428
AA. Del Castillo★DH
0-33000002
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
1-33110000
SPRINT25.29
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
1-33010002
SPRINT29.597
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
0-33000001
J. BarrosaJ. Barrosa★CF
0-33000001
Team4-2626240019
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. SorokaM. Soroka★SP
5.0411330
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
1.0000010
J. LoaisigaJ. LoaisigaRP
1.0000000
J. MorilloJ. MorilloRP
1.0000010
P. SewaldP. SewaldRP
1.0000020
Team9.0411370

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • B. Elder
    89 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      39%·83.4 mph·35% whiff
    • FF
      21%·92.6 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      19%·90.7 mph·22% whiff
    • FC
      12%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·85.9 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Kinley
    7 pitches·57% CSW
    • SL
      86%·86.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      14%·95.2 mph·— whiff

ARI

  • M. Soroka
    91 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      31%·94.8 mph·10% whiff
    • SV
      27%·82.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      20%·86.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      14%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Sewald
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • ST
      71%·83.3 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      29%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Morillo
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • CH
      43%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      36%·98.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      14%·98.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      7%·83.4 mph·— whiff
  • T. Clarke
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      33%·89.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      25%·93.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      25%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·87.9 mph·— whiff
  • J. Loaisiga
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      50%·98.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      40%·88.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      10%·89.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

4

1

Runs

2

1

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 3ATLATL17@ARIARI2
Apr 4ATLATL2@ARIARI0
Apr 4ATLATL1@ARIARI2today
Apr 5ATLATL5@ARIARI6

Season series

ATL leads series 2-1

Apr 3ATLATL17@ARIARI2
Apr 4ATLATL2@ARIARI0
Apr 4ATLATL1@ARIARI2today
Apr 5ATLATL5@ARIARI6
Aug 14ARIARI@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 15ARIARI@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 16ARIARI@ATLATLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ATLATL-10752%
ARIARI-11353%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

ATLATL
M. Olson

M. Olson

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

B. Elder

B. Elder

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

ARIARI
G. Moreno

G. Moreno

C

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

M. Soroka

M. Soroka

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ARI beat ATL 2-1. Fernandez's play in the bottom 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

ARI vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 55% WP

Smith · singled to left, Yastrzemski scored, Smith to second.

ARIBottom 2nd Inning · 1-2
+18pp→ 69% WP

Fernandez · reached on bunt single to pitcher, Moreno scored on throwing error by pitcher Elder and Arenado scored on error, Fernandez to second.

ARITop 3rd Inning · 1-2
+9pp→ 69% WP

Baldwin · flied out to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL0100000001
ARI02000000—2

Period scoring

ATL won 0 · ARI won 1

0
0

Inn 1

1
2

Inn 2

Smith 1

Fernandez 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

ATL
ARI

Play-by-play · 467 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  2. T9

    Harris II flied out to center.

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

    +4pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  5. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  6. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  7. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  11. T9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Michael Harris II

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  12. T9

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  13. T9

    Albies struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

    +6pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  15. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  16. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  17. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  22. T9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Ozzie Albies

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  23. T9

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  24. T9

    Yastrzemski struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

    +8pp

  25. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

  30. T9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Mike Yastrzemski

    ·

    ATL 1·ARI 2

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

1

Runs

2

4

Hits

4

1

Errors

1

5

TB

4

0

HR

0

3

BB

1

7

K

9

11

LOB

5

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 9.5·ATL -107/ARI -113

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jose FernandezARI · DH
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 954 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 4, 26sim 97
    152
    29(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 96
    22
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 95
    121
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 95
    123
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 94
    111
    21(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 94
    123
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

ARI vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.8± 1.0high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Tommy TroyARI
    1.3± 0.7low

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.1± 1.9high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.6± 2.9high
  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.6± 3.2high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Michael Harris IIATL
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    2.7± 3.3low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.6± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    49.1%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.2%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.8%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.