MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Beta · every feature free · The One Analytics is in beta — every feature is free · share feedback

END 5TH+1PIT

PIT

19-17

ARI

17-17

Box score

Live · model leanEnd 5thPolls every 30s

54.5%

PIT wins · current

Pre-game: 53.5% ARI

PIT 1 · 0 ARI

PIT +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsARI leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingARIBottom 2nd Inning · 1-0
+7pp→ 35% WP
Del Castillo · grounded out to first.
SwingPITTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+8pp→ 73% WP
Horwitz · tripled to center.
SwingPITTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 65% WP
Lowe · homered to center (435 feet).

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.88

P. Skenes

4-2 · 3.18 ERA

M. Soroka

4-1 · 4.70 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

ARI no-vig %

41.7%

open 41.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.0%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
53.5%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.6%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.9%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

71% confidence

Win prob · home

15.8%

-37.7ppvs pre-game · PIT favored

Leverage

medium

1-point game · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+5.04

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+129

Close price

+104

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Market steamed in our direction

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

ARI vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 54 high confidence

Strikeouts

Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.4± 2.7low
Michael SorokaARI
6.0± 4.6low
Carmen MlodzinskiPIT
5.7± 3.5low

Hits

Ildemaro VargasARI
1.6± 1.2high
Nick GonzalesPIT
1.4± 1.3high
Konnor GriffinPIT
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Ildemaro VargasARI
2.4± 2.6high
Konnor GriffinPIT
1.9± 2.2high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.8± 2.3high

RBIs

Ryan O'HearnPIT
0.8± 1.2high
Adrian Del CastilloARI
0.7± 1.0medium
Ildemaro VargasARI
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
5.3± 3.4low
Ryne NelsonARI
3.3± 3.8low
Brandon PfaadtARI
2.7± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

● Live

PIT

Pirates

19-17

vs53.5%ARI

ARI★

Diamondbacks

17-17

PIT 46.5%win prob53.5% ARI

ARI 1499 · PIT 1499Box score→

MLBWed, May 6End 5thSeriesARI leads series 1-0VegasPIT -132

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

PIT · ARI

PIT

19-17

Player	H-AB	R	RBI	HR	OPS
O. Cruz★CF	0-3	0	0	0	0.000
B. Lowe★2B	2-3	1	1	1	2.333
B. Reynolds★LF	2-3	0	0	0	1.333
R. O'Hearn★RF	0-1	0	0	0	0.500
N. Gonzales★3B	0-2	0	0	0	0.000
M. Ozuna★DH	0-2	0	0	0	0.000
S. Horwitz★1B	1-2	0	0	0	1.000
K. Griffin★SS	0-2	0	0	0	0.000
H. Davis★C	0-1	0	0	0	0.500
Team	5-19	1	1	1	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
P. Skenes★SP	5.0	2	0	3
Team	5.0	2	0	3

ARI

17-17

Player	H-AB	OPS
G. Perdomo★SS	0-2	0.000
K. Marte★2B	0-2	0.000
C. Carroll★RF	0-2	0.000
A. Del Castillo★C	0-2	0.000
I. Vargas★1B	0-2	0.000
L. Gurriel Jr.★LF	1-2	1.000
N. Arenado★3B	1-2	1.000
G. Moreno★C	0-2	0.000
A. Thomas★CF	0-1	0.000
Team	2-17	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
M. Soroka★SP	5.0	5	1	5
Team	5.0	5	1	5

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

ARI leads series 1-0

May 6

PIT0@

ARI9

May 7

PIT@

ARItoday

May 7

PIT@

ARIupcoming

Season series

ARI leads series 1-0

May 6

PIT0@

ARI9

May 7

PIT@

ARItoday

May 7

PIT@

ARIupcoming

Jul 27

ARI@

PITupcoming

Jul 28

ARI@

PITupcoming

Jul 29

ARI@

PITupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

1.5pt· 6h

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PIT-13257%

ARI+10948%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

PITSP

P. Skenes

#30 · 4-2

ERA

3.18

—

Last 3 starts

4/30vs

STL5.0 IP · 3 ER · 9 KL(4-2)

4/24@

MIL7.0 IP · 0 ER · 7 KW(4-1)

4/18vs

TB4.0 IP · 0 ER · 5 K-

ARISP

M. Soroka

#34 · 4-1

ERA

4.70

—

Last 3 starts

4/30@

MIL3.0 IP · 8 ER · 2 KL(4-1)

4/23vs

CHW5.0 IP · 1 ER · 6 K-

4/18vs

TOR7.0 IP · 2 ER · 5 KW(4-0)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

PIT4L · 4R · 1S

1
O. Cruz
CF · #15
L
2
B. Lowe
2B · #5
L
3
B. Reynolds
LF · #10
B
4
R. O'Hearn
RF · #29
L
5
N. Gonzales
3B · #3
R
6
M. Ozuna
DH · #24
R
7
S. Horwitz
1B · #2
L
8
K. Griffin
SS · #6
R
9
H. Davis
C · #32
R

ARI3L · 3R · 3S

1
G. Perdomo
SS · #2
B
2
K. Marte
2B · #4
B
3
C. Carroll
RF · #7
L
4
A. Del Castillo
DH · #25
L
5
I. Vargas
1B · #6
B
6
L. Gurriel Jr.
LF · #12
R
7
N. Arenado
3B · #28
R
8
G. Moreno
C · #14
R
9
A. Thomas
CF · #5
L

Live · top performers so far

End 5th

Game flowPIT ↔ ARI

Recent swing: 5pp · Bottom 5th Inning

Just happened

End of the 5th inning

PIT

B. Lowe

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

P. Skenes

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 2 H

On pace: 7 IP · 4 K · 0 ER

ARI

L. Gurriel Jr.

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

M. Soroka

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 7 K · 1 ER

How it's going

PIT lead ARI 1-0 (End 5th).

Win probability

ARI vs PIT

Score progression

0 lead changes

PIT1

ARI0

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PITTop 1st Inning · 1-0

+10pp→ 65% WP

Lowe · homered to center (435 feet).

PITTop 2nd Inning · 1-0

+8pp→ 73% WP

Horwitz · tripled to center.

ARIBottom 2nd Inning · 1-0

+7pp→ 35% WP

Del Castillo · grounded out to first.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	R
PIT	1	0	0	0	0	1
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · ARI won 0

Inn 1

Lowe 1

Inn 2

Inn 3

Inn 4

Inn 5

PIT

ARI

Game flow · key plays

B5
Moreno lined out to right.
PIT 1·ARI 0
−5pp
B2
Del Castillo grounded out to first.
PIT 1·ARI 0
+7pp
T2
Horwitz tripled to center.
PIT 1·ARI 0
−8pp
T1
Ozuna flied out to right.
PIT 1·ARI 0
+3pp
T1
Gonzales grounded into fielder's choice to third, O'Hearn to second, Reynolds out at third.
PIT 1·ARI 0
+4pp
T1
Lowe homered to center (435 feet).
PIT 1·ARI 0
−10pp

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

Hits

Errors

Runs

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 7.5·PIT -132/ARI +109

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+5.04

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+129

Close price

+104

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Market steamed in our direction

Live · model intelligence

71% confidence

Win prob · home

15.8%

-37.7ppvs pre-game · PIT favored

Leverage

medium

1-point game · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Player projections

ARI vs PIT.

126

projections · 54 high confidence

Strikeouts

Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.4± 2.7low
Michael SorokaARI
6.0± 4.6low
Carmen MlodzinskiPIT
5.7± 3.5low

Hits

Ildemaro VargasARI
1.6± 1.2high
Nick GonzalesPIT
1.4± 1.3high
Konnor GriffinPIT
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Ildemaro VargasARI
2.4± 2.6high
Konnor GriffinPIT
1.9± 2.2high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.8± 2.3high

RBIs

Ryan O'HearnPIT
0.8± 1.2high
Adrian Del CastilloARI
0.7± 1.0medium
Ildemaro VargasARI
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
5.3± 3.4low
Ryne NelsonARI
3.3± 3.8low
Brandon PfaadtARI
2.7± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

53.0%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
53.5%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.6%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.9%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen