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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1ATH
ATH

ATH

8-7

1
0
NYM

NYM

7-9

Citi Field · Queens, New York
37,316 attended

Line movement

14 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

NYM no-vig %

59.3%

open 59.3%

-1.0-2.0NYM SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL63.3%55.3%NYM NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 7 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 1 · NYM 0 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATH +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH0010000001
NYM0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

52%Last 7 · 46-42
61%Last 30 · 309-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+135

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sun, Apr 12·Final/SeriesATH wins series 3-0/VegasNYM -163

Recap · MLB

Athletics went into New York Mets and beat them, 1–0. It came down to the final possession.

ATH +1.5 cashed (NYM lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.0 by 6.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Nick Kurtz

Nick Kurtz

1B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Francisco Lindor

Francisco Lindor

SS

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Athletics at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH8-7
1
0
NYM7-9
ATH8-7·NYM7-9
ATH

ATH

8-7

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
0-44000001
SPRINT26.530
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
1-33111112
SPRINT26.632
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
1-44010002
SPRINT28.586
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
0-44000001
C. CortesC. Cortes★RF
1-33010000
SPRINT25.716
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-33000011
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT25.920
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
0-22000012
D. ClarkeD. Clarke★CF
0-33000001
A. IbanezA. Ibanez2B
0-11000000
Team4-31311411310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. CivaleA. Civale★SP
5.2400030
H. HarrisH. HarrisRP
1.0000020
S. BarlowS. BarlowRP
1.0000100
E. AlvaradoE. AlvaradoRP
0.1000000
J. KuhnelJ. KuhnelRP
1.0000000
Team9.0400150
NYM

NYM

7-9

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
2-44020000
SPRINT26.941
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
0-44000002
SPRINT25.310
J. YoungJ. Young★1B
1-22010000
SPRINT27.354
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
0-44000002
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
0-33000001
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-33000000
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
0-33000000
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
1-33010000
SPRINT26.428
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
0-22000010
M. VientosM. Vientos1B
0-22000000
SPRINT25.513
Team4-3030040015
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. PeraltaF. Peralta★SP
6.0411361
S. ManaeaS. ManaeaRP
3.0000040
Team9.04113101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • A. Civale
    75 pitches·28% CSW
    • FC
      39%·87.5 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      24%·77.1 mph·44% whiff
    • SI
      16%·91.2 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      12%·91.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      5%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Barlow
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • CU
      29%·77.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      29%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      24%·79.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      18%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Harris
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      69%·94.8 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      15%·74.8 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      8%·83.6 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·83.4 mph·— whiff
  • E. Alvarado
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      83%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      17%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Kuhnel
    4 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      50%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      25%·91.0 mph·— whiff

NYM

  • F. Peralta
    100 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      58%·93.5 mph·28% whiff
    • CH
      24%·86.6 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      12%·79.3 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      5%·81.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CS
      1%·75.1 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Manaea
    41 pitches·41% CSW
    • FF
      59%·89.3 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      37%·73.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      5%·88.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

4

1

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATH wins series 3-0

Apr 10ATHATH4@NYMNYM0
Apr 11ATHATH11@NYMNYM6
Apr 12ATHATH1@NYMNYM0today

Season series

ATH wins series 3-0

Apr 10ATHATH4@NYMNYM0
Apr 11ATHATH11@NYMNYM6
Apr 12ATHATH1@NYMNYM0today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATHATH+13543%
NYMNYM-16362%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 3rd Inning

ATHATH
N. Kurtz

N. Kurtz

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

A. Civale

A. Civale

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 4 H

NYMNYM
F. Lindor

F. Lindor

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

F. Peralta

F. Peralta

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ATH beat NYM 1-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYM vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+13pp→ 49% WP

Kurtz · homered to right (363 feet).

ATHTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+9pp→ 62% WP

McNeil · doubled to right, Muncy to third.

ATHBottom 6th Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 63% WP

Vientos · flied out to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH0010000001
NYM0000000000

Period scoring

ATH won 1 · NYM won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Kurtz 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

ATH
NYM

Play-by-play · 500 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATH 1·NYM 0

  2. B9

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

  3. B9

    Bichette grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

    −6pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

  5. B9

    Joel Kuhnel pitches to Bo Bichette

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

  6. B9

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

  7. B9

    Vientos grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

    −8pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

  9. B9

    Joel Kuhnel pitches to Mark Vientos

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

  10. B9

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

  11. B9

    Polanco grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

    −9pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

  14. B9

    Joel Kuhnel pitches to Jorge Polanco

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

  15. B9

    Kuhnel relieved Alvarado

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

  16. B9

    Ibáñez as designated hitter.

    ATH 1·NYM 0

  17. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ATH 1·NYM 0

  18. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ATH 1·NYM 0

  19. T9

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

  20. T9

    McNeil popped out to first.

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

  25. T9

    Sean Manaea pitches to Jeff McNeil

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

  26. T9

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

  27. T9

    Muncy grounded out to second.

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

    +1pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 1·NYM 0

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

1

Runs

0

4

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

8

TB

4

1

HR

0

3

BB

1

10

K

5

11

LOB

8

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 7·ATH +135/NYM -163

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 954 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 10, 26sim 96
    280
    6(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 96
    221
    28(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 95
    172
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 95
    220
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 95
    152
    29(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 95
    231
    29(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

NYM vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    6.0± 3.1low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.7± 3.3low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.8± 2.6high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.8± 2.9high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.6± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Brent RookerATH
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.8%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    49.7%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.5%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.0%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Carson BengeNYM · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175