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FINAL+1PHI
PHI

PHI

15-20

1
0
MIA

MIA

16-19

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
7,626 attended

Line movement

66 snapshots

MIA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIA implied %

53.5%

open 50.5% · +3.0

+2.0+1.0MIA SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL57.5%46.5%MIA IMPLIED %MODEL 52.3%May 3, 5 PMMay 4, 9 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 1 · MIA 0 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI0010000001
MIA0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

58%Last 7 · 66-48
55%Last 30 · 237-196
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, May 4·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 3-1/VegasMIA -115

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies went into Miami Marlins and beat them, 1–0. It came down to the final possession.

MIA +1.5 cashed (PHI won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line just movedMoneyline ↘ 5 over 6.4h1m ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

PHI · MIA

PHI

PHI

15-20

1
T. Turner

T. Turner★

SS

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

K. Schwarber

K. Schwarber★

LF

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

B. Harper

B. Harper★

1B

OPS

2.250

H-AB

3-4

R

1

RBI

1

HR

1

A. Garcia

A. Garcia★

RF

OPS

1.000

H-AB

2-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

B. Marsh

B. Marsh★

LF

OPS

0.500

H-AB

1-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

B. Stott

B. Stott★

2B

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

A. Bohm

A. Bohm★

3B

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

G. Stubbs

G. Stubbs★

C

OPS

0.500

H-AB

1-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

J. Crawford

J. Crawford★

CF

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-3

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

Team total

H-AB

7-35

R

1

RBI

1

HR

1

PlayerH-ABRRBIHROPS
T. Turner
T. Turner★SS
0-40000.000
K. Schwarber
K. Schwarber★LF
0-40000.000
B. Harper
B. Harper★1B
3-41112.250
A. Garcia
A. Garcia★RF
2-40001.000
B. Marsh
B. Marsh★LF
1-40000.500
B. Stott
B. Stott★2B
0-40000.000
A. Bohm
A. Bohm★3B
0-40000.000
G. Stubbs
G. Stubbs★C
1-40000.500
J. Crawford
J. Crawford★CF
0-30000.000
Team7-35111—
A. Nola

A. Nola★

SP

IP

6.0

H

5

ER

0

K

5

T. Banks

T. Banks

RP

IP

1.0

H

0

ER

0

K

1

J. Alvarado

J. Alvarado

RP

IP

1.0

H

0

ER

0

K

1

B. Keller

B. Keller

RP

IP

1.0

H

2

ER

0

K

0

Team total

IP

9.0

H

7

ER

0

K

7

PlayerIPHERK
A. Nola
A. Nola★SP
6.0505
T. Banks
T. BanksRP
1.0001
J. Alvarado
J. AlvaradoRP
1.0001
B. Keller
B. KellerRP
1.0200
Team9.0707
MIA

MIA

16-19

0
J. Marsee

J. Marsee★

CF

OPS

1.000

H-AB

2-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

K. Stowers

K. Stowers★

LF

OPS

1.000

H-AB

2-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

O. Lopez

O. Lopez★

SS

OPS

0.500

H-AB

1-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

X. Edwards

X. Edwards★

2B

OPS

0.500

H-AB

1-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

L. Hicks

L. Hicks★

C

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

C. Morel

C. Morel★

LF

OPS

0.667

H-AB

1-3

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

J. Mack

J. Mack★

C

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-3

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

O. Caissie

O. Caissie★

RF

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-2

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

G. Pauley

G. Pauley★

3B

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-2

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

E. Ruiz

E. Ruiz

CF

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-1

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

C. Norby

C. Norby

1B

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-1

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

Team total

H-AB

7-32

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

PlayerH-ABRRBIHROPS
J. Marsee
J. Marsee★CF
2-40001.000
K. Stowers
K. Stowers★LF
2-40001.000
O. Lopez
O. Lopez★SS
1-40000.500
X. Edwards
X. Edwards★2B
1-40000.500
L. Hicks
L. Hicks★C
0-40000.000
C. Morel
C. Morel★LF
1-30000.667
J. Mack
J. Mack★C
0-30000.000
O. Caissie
O. Caissie★RF
0-20000.000
G. Pauley
G. Pauley★3B
0-20000.000
E. Ruiz
E. RuizCF
0-10000.000
C. Norby
C. Norby1B
0-10000.000
Team7-32000—
J. Junk

J. Junk★

SP

IP

5.1

H

5

ER

1

K

6

J. King

J. King

RP

IP

0.2

H

0

ER

0

K

0

C. Faucher

C. Faucher

RP

IP

1.0

H

1

ER

0

K

1

L. Bachar

L. Bachar

RP

IP

2.0

H

1

ER

0

K

1

Team total

IP

9.0

H

7

ER

1

K

8

PlayerIPHERK
J. Junk
J. Junk★SP
5.1516
J. King
J. KingRP
0.2000
C. Faucher
C. FaucherRP
1.0101
L. Bachar
L. BacharRP
2.0101
Team9.0718

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

7

1

Runs

0

1

Errors

1

Current series

PHI wins series 3-1

May 1PHIPHI6@MIAMIA5
May 2PHIPHI0@MIAMIA4
May 3PHIPHI7@MIAMIA2
May 4PHIPHI1@MIAMIA0today

Season series

PHI leads series 3-1

May 1PHIPHI6@MIAMIA5
May 2PHIPHI0@MIAMIA4
May 3PHIPHI7@MIAMIA2
May 4PHIPHI1@MIAMIA0today
Jun 15MIAMIA@PHIPHIupcoming
Jun 16MIAMIA@PHIPHIupcoming
Jun 17MIAMIA@PHIPHIupcoming
Jul 27PHIPHI@MIAMIAupcoming
Jul 28PHIPHI@MIAMIAupcoming
Jul 29PHIPHI@MIAMIAupcoming
Aug 17MIAMIA@PHIPHIupcoming
Aug 18MIAMIA@PHIPHIupcoming
Aug 19MIAMIA@PHIPHIupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI-10551%
MIAMIA-11553%

↘5· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 66 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 32pp · Bottom 9th Inning

PHIPHI
B. Harper

B. Harper

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

A. Nola

A. Nola

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 5 H

MIAMIA
J. Marsee

J. Marsee

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

J. Junk

J. Junk

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 5 H

How it ended

PHI beat MIA 1-0. Lopez's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (32pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIA vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Score progression

0 lead changes

T2T3T4T5T6T7T8T9
PHI1
MIA0

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHITop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 46% WP

Harper · homered to right center (393 feet).

PHIBottom 4th Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 54% WP

Edwards · flied out to center.

PHIBottom 9th Inning · 1-0
+32pp→ 94% WP

Lopez · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Sanoja out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI0010000001
MIA0000000000

Period scoring

PHI won 1 · MIA won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Harper 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

PHI
MIA

Game flow · key plays

  1. B9

    Hicks grounded out to second.

    PHI 1·MIA 0

    −10pp

  2. B9

    Lopez grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Sanoja out at second.

    PHI 1·MIA 0

    −32pp

  3. B9

    Stowers singled to left.

    PHI 1·MIA 0

    +16pp

  4. B7

    Hicks grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Edwards out at second.

    PHI 1·MIA 0

    −7pp

  5. B4

    Edwards flied out to center.

    PHI 1·MIA 0

    −11pp

  6. T3

    Harper homered to right center (393 feet).

    PHI 1·MIA 0

    −12pp

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

7

Hits

7

1

Errors

1

1

Runs

0

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 8.5·PHI -105/MIA -115

DraftKings · via ESPN