Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — May 4, 2026

FINAL+1PHI

PHI

15-20

MIA

16-19

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

7,626 attended

Line movement

98 snapshots

MIA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIA no-vig %

51.1%

open 48.3% · +2.8

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.0%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
48.4%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.5%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.8%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.7± 3.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.4± 2.8medium
Zack WheelerPHI
6.3± 2.6low

Hits

Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.3± 1.2high
Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 0.7high
Alec BohmPHI
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.9± 3.8high
Bryce HarperPHI
2.2± 3.8high
Kyle StowersMIA
1.9± 3.5high

RBIs

Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.0± 2.0high
Kyle StowersMIA
0.9± 1.7high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.3± 2.2medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.2± 3.1medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
2.2± 2.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

MIA

.696

OPS

.719

▶

.710

.300

OBP

.319

▶

.323

4.27

Runs / G

4.50

4.31

4.06

Team ERA

4.19

4.07

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

9.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 1 · MIA 0 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. SchwarberDH	.213	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Harper1B	.271	4	1	3	1	1	0	0
A. GarciaRF	.244	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
B. MarshLF	.309	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Stott2B	.198	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Bohm3B	.157	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. StubbsC	.267	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. CrawfordCF	.260	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		35	1	7	1	1	0	8

Player

.236

.213

.271

.244

.309

.198

.157

.267

.260

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NolaSP	6.0	5	0	0	0	5	94
T. BanksRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18
J. AlvaradoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
B. KellerRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	10
Team	9.0	7	0	0	0	7	130

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

130

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MarseeCF	.185	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
K. StowersLF	.240	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
O. LopezSS	.338	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
X. Edwards2B	.333	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. HicksC	.297	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Morel1B	.286	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. MackC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. CaissieRF	.202	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Pauley3B	.181	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Sanoja3B	.304	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. RuizRF	.267	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Norby1B	.235	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	0	7	0	0	0	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JunkSP	5.1	5	1	1	0	6	92
J. KingRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	10
C. FaucherRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15
L. BacharRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	29
Team	9.0	7	1	1	0	8	146

Team

PHI

MIA

3 sub-models, blended.

MIA vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.