MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

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FINAL+1CHW

SEA

19-22

CHW

19-21

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

19,247 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 7.5 · +0.5

CHW no-vig %

45.8%

open 47.4% · -1.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.3%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
47.5%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.1%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.3%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Player projections

CHW vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 62 high confidence

Strikeouts

Emerson HancockSEA
6.3± 4.9low
Davis MartinCHW
6.1± 3.1low
Logan GilbertSEA
5.4± 2.2low

Hits

Josh NaylorSEA
1.3± 1.0high
Julio RodriguezSEA
1.3± 0.8high
Chase MeidrothCHW
1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

Julio RodriguezSEA
2.5± 2.6high
Colson MontgomeryCHW
2.0± 1.7high
Josh NaylorSEA
1.9± 2.1high

RBIs

Luke RaleySEA
0.9± 2.3high
Colson MontgomeryCHW
0.8± 1.0high
Josh NaylorSEA
0.8± 1.4high

Earned runs

Luis CastilloSEA
3.5± 3.5low
Noah SchultzCHW
2.6± 3.6low
Bryan WooSEA
2.6± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

SEA 1 · CHW 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
CHW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

MLBSun, May 10FinalSeriesCHW win series 2-1VegasSEA -141

Recap · MLB

hicago White Sox held off Seattle Mariners, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

CHW +1.5 cashed (SEA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

Connor Joe

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

RBI

CHW · top performer

Randal Grichuk

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

SEA19-22

CHW19-21

SEA19-22CHW19-21

SEA

19-22

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
B. Donovan★3B	0-5	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Rodriguez★CF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
SPRINT28.688
J. Naylor★1B	2-3	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
SPRINT23.81
C. Raleigh★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
R. Arozarena★LF	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	2
SPRINT26.941
L. Raley★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J.P. Crawford★SS	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT25.513
D. Canzone★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Young★2B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Joe1B	2-2	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
R. RefsnyderRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1

Team	7-33	33	1	7	1	0	3	12

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
L. Gilbert★SP	6.0	1	0	0	0	9	0
J. FerrerRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	0
E. BazardoRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	1
Team	8.0	5	2	2	1	10	1

CHW

19-21

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. Antonacci★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Murakami★1B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
SPRINT27.148
M. Vargas★3B	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT28.381
C. Montgomery★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Meidroth★2B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT2744
J. Kelenic★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Peters★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Grichuk★LF	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
SPRINT26.735
D. Romo★C	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT26.326

Team	5-27	27	2	5	2	1	1	10

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
D. Martin★SP	6.0	3	1	1	2	9	0
S. NewcombRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. HudsonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0
S. DominguezRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	0
Team	9.0	7	1	1	3	12	0

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

L. Gilbert
87 pitches34% CSW
- FF
  40%94.8 mph15% whiff
- SL
  26%85.9 mph38% whiff
- CH
  11%85.0 mph25% whiff
- FS
  11%82.3 mph50% whiff
- CU
  6%78.7 mph50% whiff
- FC
  5%91.4 mph0% whiff
E. Bazardo
15 pitches47% CSW
- SI
  67%94.6 mph25% whiff
- ST
  33%83.4 mph50% whiff

CHW

D. Martin
105 pitches27% CSW
- FF
  30%94.0 mph29% whiff
- CH
  18%90.8 mph30% whiff
- SI
  17%93.0 mph9% whiff
- SL
  16%87.0 mph27% whiff
- CU
  13%81.1 mph67% whiff
- FC
  5%88.8 mph0% whiff
S. Dominguez
23 pitches22% CSW
- FF
  35%97.2 mph25% whiff
- ST
  35%85.2 mph0% whiff
- SI
  26%96.7 mph50% whiff
- FS
  4%87.0 mph— whiff
S. Newcomb
15 pitches33% CSW
- FF
  53%94.5 mph33% whiff
- SV
  33%81.9 mph67% whiff
- CU
  13%80.5 mph0% whiff
B. Hudson
9 pitches56% CSW
- FF
  67%90.5 mph60% whiff
- ST
  33%79.6 mph50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

CHW win series 2-1

May 8

SEA12@

CHW8

May 9

SEA1@

CHW6

May 10

SEA1@

CHW2today

Season series

CHW lead series 2-1

May 8

SEA12@

CHW8

May 9

SEA1@

CHW6

May 10

SEA1@

CHW2today

May 19

CHW@

SEAupcoming

May 20

CHW@

SEAupcoming

May 20

CHW@

SEAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

0.5pt· 5.8h

Moneyline

SEA-14159%

CHW+11746%

7· 5.8h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 31pp · Bottom 8th Inning

SEA

C. Joe

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

L. Gilbert

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 9 K · 0 ER · 1 H

CHW

R. Grichuk

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

D. Martin

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CHW beat SEA 2-1. Grichuk's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).

Win probability

CHW vs SEA

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SEATop 8th Inning · 1-0

+12pp→ 76% WP

Donovan · struck out swinging.

CHWBottom 8th Inning · 1-1

+31pp→ 59% WP

Grichuk · homered to left (377 feet).

CHWTop 9th Inning · 1-2

+24pp→ 100% WP

Donovan · grounded out to first.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
CHW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	—	2

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · CHW won 1

Inn 1

Arozarena 1

Inn 2

Inn 3

Inn 4

Inn 5

Inn 6

Inn 7

Inn 8

Grichuk 1

Inn 9

SEA

CHW

Play-by-play · 539 plays

period

event

player

T9
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 2
T9
Donovan grounded out to first.BIG MOMENT
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 2
+24pp
T9
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 2
T9
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 2
T9
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 2
T9
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 2
T9
Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Brendan Donovan
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 2
T9
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 2
T9
Young popped out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 2
+19pp
T9
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 2
T9
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 2
T9
Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Cole Young
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 2
T9
Rivas ran for Refsnyder
·
SEA 1·CHW 2
T9
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 2
T9
Refsnyder walked, Crawford to second, Joe to third.BIG MOMENT
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 2
−18pp
T9
Pitch 4 : Ball 4
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 2
T9
Pitch 3 : Ball 3
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 2
T9
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 2
T9
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 2
T9
Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Rob Refsnyder
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 2
T9
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 2
T9
Crawford singled to right, Joe to second.BIG MOMENT
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 2
−9pp
T9
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 2
T9
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 2
T9
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 2
T9
Seranthony Dominguez pitches to J.P. Crawford
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 2
T9
·
SEA 1·CHW 2
T9
Joe singled to right.BIG MOMENT
·
SEA 1·CHW 2
−8pp
T9
Pitch 5 : Ball In Play
·
SEA 1·CHW 2
T9
Pitch 4 : Ball 1
·
SEA 1·CHW 2

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 8·SEA -141/CHW +117

DraftKings · via ESPN