Pitcher· TOR
H. Juenger
0.0 IP, 0 ER
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
TOR
0LiveBot 6th
BAL
6Updated 1:57 PM ET
BOT 6TH+6BAL
TOR
29-30
06
BAL
27-32
MLB · At bat
Bottom 60-20 outs
Batter· BAL
T. Ward
0-3
LastPitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
4 of 15 players in cohort
Leody TaverasBAL · CFSPRINT2993
Gunnar HendersonBAL · SSSPRINT28.175
Colton CowserBAL · CFSPRINT28.175
Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3BSPRINT28.175
Live · model leanBot 6thPolls every 30s
74.7%
BAL wins · current
Pre-game: 50.8% TOR
TOR 0 · 6 BAL
BAL +6
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Inn 6away leadsBAL leads
Key moments · live
newest firstOriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
Probable starters
The mound matchup
Combined ERA 6.02
S. Miles
2-0 · 2.16 ERA
vs
K. Bradish
2-6 · 3.86 ERA
Line movement
200 snapshots
BAL spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
BAL no-vig %
53.3%
open 54.2% · -0.9
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Ensemble breakdown
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.6%
ensemble · TOR favored
Elo Static
51.0%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.9%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.5%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.13 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
93% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Live model · pick
Receipts
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+0.90
CLV pp
Open price
+109
Close price
+105
Open no-vig
45.8%
Close no-vig
46.7%
Market came to the model
Line shop
Player props
Player projections
BAL vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 87 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Kyle BradishBAL5.6± 3.0low
- Trey YesavageTOR5.6± 2.2low
- Shane BazBAL5.3± 2.1low
Hits
- Ernie ClementTOR1.2± 0.8high
- Nathan LukesTOR1.2± 1.0high
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR1.2± 1.3high
Total bases
- Ernie ClementTOR2.1± 2.0high
- Gunnar HendersonBAL1.9± 2.7high
- Pete AlonsoBAL1.9± 1.8high
RBIs
- Pete AlonsoBAL0.8± 1.3high
- Jesus SanchezTOR0.7± 1.2high
- Blaze AlexanderBAL0.6± 1.9high
Earned runs
- Trevor RogersBAL3.7± 2.8low
- Shane BazBAL2.8± 2.3low
- Chris BassittBAL2.7± 2.8low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
The One modelTossup
● Live
0TOR★
Blue Jays
28-38
vs50.8%TOR
BAL
Orioles
30-38
6TOR 50.8%win prob49.2% BAL
TOR 1487 · BAL 1470Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
