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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2ATL
ATL

ATL

6-2

2
0
ARI

ARI

3-5

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
29,192 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

ARI spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ARI no-vig %

49.6%

open 49.6%

+2.0+1.0ARI SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL53.6%45.6%ARI NO-VIG %MODEL 47.4%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 2 · ARI 0 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ARI +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL0000000022
ARI0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 968 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 4, 26sim 97
    151
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 95
    172
    28(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 95
    111
    21(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 95
    121
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 94
    123
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 94
    172
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Apr 3·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasATL -112

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves went into Arizona Diamondbacks and beat them, 2–0.

ATL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 9.0 by 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Ozzie Albies

Ozzie Albies

2B

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Alek Thomas

Alek Thomas

CF

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL6-2
2
0
ARI3-5
ATL6-2·ARI3-5
ATL

ATL

6-2

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
1-44010000
SPRINT26.838
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
1-44010000
SPRINT26.632
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
3-44131100
SPRINT27.354
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-44111101
SPRINT25.513
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
0-44000001
SPRINT27.765
E. WhiteE. White★CF
0-33000000
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
0-44000001
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
0-22000010
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
0-22000000
D. SmithD. SmithDH
0-11000001
M. YastrzemskiM. YastrzemskiLF
0-11000001
Team6-3333262215
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. HolmesG. Holmes★SP
6.0100340
D. LeeD. LeeRP
1.0100010
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.0000000
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0000000
Team9.0200350
ARI

ARI

3-5

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
0-22000021
SPRINT29.496
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-44000000
SPRINT26.838
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
0-44000001
SPRINT26.428
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
0-33000001
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
1-33010000
SPRINT27.867
J. McCannJ. McCann★C
0-33000001
C. SantanaC. Santana★1B
0-33000001
T. TawaT. Tawa★LF
0-22000010
Team2-2828020035
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. RodriguezE. Rodriguez★SP
7.0400130
J. MorilloJ. MorilloRP
1.0000010
P. SewaldP. SewaldRP
0.2222012
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
0.1000000
Team9.0622152

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

ARI

  • P. Sewald
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • ST
      71%·83.3 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      29%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Morillo
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • CH
      43%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      36%·98.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      14%·98.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      7%·83.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

2

2

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 3ATLATL17@ARIARI2
Apr 4ATLATL2@ARIARI0today
Apr 4ATLATL1@ARIARI2
Apr 5ATLATL5@ARIARI6

Season series

ATL leads series 2-0

Apr 3ATLATL17@ARIARI2
Apr 4ATLATL2@ARIARI0today
Apr 4ATLATL1@ARIARI2
Apr 5ATLATL5@ARIARI6
Aug 14ARIARI@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 15ARIARI@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 16ARIARI@ATLATLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATLATL-11253%
ARIARI-10852%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 32pp · Top 9th Inning

ATLATL
O. Albies

O. Albies

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

G. Holmes

G. Holmes

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 3 BB

ARIARI
A. Thomas

A. Thomas

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

E. Rodriguez

E. Rodriguez

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ATL beat ARI 2-0. Albies's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (32pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ARI vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 6th Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 50% WP

Olson · struck out swinging.

ATLTop 7th Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 47% WP

White · grounded out to shortstop.

ATLTop 9th Inning · 1-0
+32pp→ 81% WP

Albies · homered to right (382 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL0000000022
ARI0000000000

Period scoring

ATL won 1 · ARI won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

2
0

Inn 9

Albies 1

ATL
ARI

Play-by-play · 480 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  2. B9

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  3. B9

    Moreno flied out to right.

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  10. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Gabriel Moreno

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  11. B9

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  12. B9

    Perdomo grounded out to second.

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

    −4pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  19. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Geraldo Perdomo

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  20. B9

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  21. B9

    Carroll flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

    −5pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  26. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Corbin Carroll

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  27. B9

    Iglesias relieved Smith

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ATL 2·ARI 0

  30. T9

    ·

    ATL 2·ARI 0

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

2

Runs

0

6

Hits

2

0

Errors

0

12

TB

2

2

HR

0

1

BB

3

5

K

5

10

LOB

7

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 9·ATL -112/ARI -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

ARI vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.8± 1.0high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Tommy TroyARI
    1.3± 0.7low

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.1± 1.9high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.6± 2.9high
  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.6± 3.2high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Michael Harris IIATL
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    2.7± 3.3low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.6± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.7%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    50.4%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.3%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.1%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496