MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

MIA

26-32

PregameSat, 4:10 PM EDT

NYM

24-33

ATS/NYM -1.5O/U/7ML/NYM-136

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

96 total idx

Citi Field run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

4-6

MIA -1.4 vs NYM -2.0 margin

MIA brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 970 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Citi Field · Queens, New York

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.5 · -0.5

NYM no-vig %

55.1%

open 56.3% · -1.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Tyler Phillips

RP · #30

0-0

W-L

1.07

ERA

1.25

WHIP

33.2

Last 3 starts

vsNYM-3.2 IP0 ER4 K

vsATL-3.0 IP0 ER2 K

@TB-2.0 IP1 ER0 K

Home starter

Christian Scott

SP · #45

0-0

W-L

3.20

ERA

1.38

WHIP

25.1

Last 3 starts

@MIA-5.2 IP0 ER5 K

@WSH-4.0 IP3 ER5 K

vsDET-4.2 IP2 ER5 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 7

Money+113 / -136

Model edge

Win prob61% / 39%

LeanAway · 11pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesNYM lead series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take MIA on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

+113Bet MIA ML↗+113Bet MIA ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 7Bet the total↗O/U 7Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

NYM vs MIA.

NYM is 3-7 recently; MIA is 4-6.

38.9%

model · NYM win prob

Recent form

NYM3–7-2.0
MIA4–6-1.4

Situational

NYM1d restB2B
MIA1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. NYM has 0 straight road games; MIA has 4.

Model angle

+5.7ppon MIA

MIA's edge is mostly model confidence plus line steam. Venue split is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.3pp
▲Model confidence+1.5pp
▼Venue split-1.5pp

Players to watch

Juan SotoNYM
2.8total bases · ±2.6
Juan Soto · 2.8 TB · last-10 3.2 vs season 2.2.
Xavier EdwardsMIA
2.0total bases · ±1.8
Xavier Edwards · 2 TB · last-10 2.1 vs season 1.8.
Bo BichetteNYM
1.8total bases · ±2.9
Bo Bichette · 1.8 TB · last-10 2.2 vs season 1.3.

Head-to-head · 1-3 · last 4

NYM is 1-3 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-05-22NYM @ MIA1–2
2026-05-23NYM @ MIA1–4
2026-05-24NYM @ MIA0–4
2026-05-29MIA @ NYM7–9

Line move

open -143→-136toward MIA

The market has moved 1.2pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
49.4%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.9%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.7%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like MIA.

MIA's edge is mostly model confidence plus line steam. Venue split is the main caution flag.

+5.7

pp edge · MIA

+1.20

CLV pp

5.0u · large

on MIA

61.1%

±5.2pp band

5u large — +14.2pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+16.2pp

+10.5pp post-cal

Kelly

26.7%

5.0% sized

Decimal

2.13

+14.2pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 5.7pp · MIA over NYM

▲
Model confidence90% conf
MIA clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▼
Venue split70% conf
NYM's venue form trims MIA's edge by 40pp.
-1.5pp
▼
Travel burden58% conf
MIA is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
-1.1pp
▲
Line steam68% conf
The market moved 1.2pp toward MIA since open.
+0.5pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
MIA has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.2pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Market came to the model

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.2pp

best edge · MIA · DraftKings

MIA

★ best

+113DraftKings

edge +16.2pp · implied 44.9%

NYM

no live price

Book	MIA	NYM	Best edge
DraftKings	+113★	-136	+16.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NYM vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 70 high confidence

Strikeouts