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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1TOR
TOR

TOR

20-25

2
1
DET

DET

20-26

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
38,295 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

DET spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

DET no-vig %

53.2%

open 52.6% · +0.6

+2.0+1.0DET SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL57.2%48.6%DET NO-VIG %MODEL 49.4%May 16, 12 AMMay 16, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 2 · DET 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
TOR00000010012
DET00000100001

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.9pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

TOR

★ best
+110DraftKings

edge +5.9pp · implied 44.7%

DET

no live price

BookTORDETBest edge
DraftKings+110★-143+5.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Sat, May 16·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 2-1/VegasDET -120

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays went into Detroit Tigers and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

DET +1.5 cashed (TOR won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Yohendrick Pinango

Yohendrick Pinango

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Matt Vierling

Matt Vierling

CF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
TOR20-25
2
1
DET20-26
TOR20-25·DET20-26
TOR

TOR

20-25

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
0-44000001
SPRINT25.920
Y. PinangoY. Pinango★LF
2-44121101
SPRINT2622
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
0-44100000
SPRINT26.123
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
0-44000001
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
2-33021010
SPRINT26.838
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
0-33000002
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT26.941
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-33000000
T. HeinemanT. Heineman★C
0-22000000
M. StrawM. StrawRF
0-11000000
E. ClementE. Clement2B
0-11000000
D. SchneiderD. SchneiderLF
0-11000001
Team5-3434252116
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. FluhartyM. Fluharty★RP
1.1100030
S. MilesS. MilesRP
3.2200250
B. FisherB. FisherRP
1.0111021
T. NanceT. NanceRP
1.0000010
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0100010
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
2.0200020
Team10.07112141
DET

DET

20-26

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
2-55020001
SPRINT28.278
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-44000012
H. LeeH. Lee★2B
0-11000001
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
2-44121100
SPRINT28.483
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
1-44010002
SPRINT2744
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-44010003
SPRINT26.123
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT26.941
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-33000000
J. RogersJ. Rogers★C
0-33000012
G. WorkmanG. Workman3B
0-33000002
C. KeithC. Keith3B
0-11000001
Team7-36361711214
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MizeC. Mize★SP
6.0200040
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
1.0111101
C. SeaboldC. SeaboldRP
1.0000010
K. JansenK. JansenRP
1.0000010
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
1.0210000
Team10.0521161

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • S. Miles
    56 pitches·32% CSW
    • CU
      36%·80.3 mph·42% whiff
    • SI
      36%·95.7 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      14%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.8 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      2%·86.2 mph·— whiff
  • L. Varland
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • KC
      35%·87.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      23%·92.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      23%·98.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Fisher
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • SL
      55%·88.7 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      25%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Nance
    20 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      40%·88.6 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      30%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      30%·94.5 mph·33% whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    18 pitches·44% CSW
    • FC
      56%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      28%·80.7 mph·75% whiff
    • CH
      17%·84.7 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      64%·83.6 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      36%·73.5 mph·50% whiff

DET

  • C. Mize
    71 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      30%·88.4 mph·42% whiff
    • FF
      27%·93.9 mph·9% whiff
    • FS
      24%·88.5 mph·30% whiff
    • SI
      14%·93.2 mph·10% whiff
    • SV
      6%·81.5 mph·— whiff
  • K. Finnegan
    13 pitches·8% CSW
    • FF
      54%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      46%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Jansen
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      67%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·92.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      8%·84.2 mph·— whiff
  • T. Holton
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • FC
      45%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      27%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      18%·79.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Seabold
    8 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      88%·94.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      13%·87.8 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

7

2

Runs

1

1

Errors

0

Current series

TOR wins series 2-1

May 15TORTOR2@DETDET3
May 16TORTOR2@DETDET1today
May 17TORTOR4@DETDET1

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 15TORTOR2@DETDET3
May 16TORTOR2@DETDET1today
May 17TORTOR4@DETDET1
Sep 14DETDET@TORTORupcoming
Sep 15DETDET@TORTORupcoming
Sep 16DETDET@TORTORupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TORTOR-10150%
DETDET-12055%

↘4· 1.7h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 26pp · Top 10th Inning

TORTOR
Y. Pinango

Y. Pinango

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

S. Miles

S. Miles

RP

Top reliever

3.2 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

DETDET
M. Vierling

M. Vierling

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

C. Mize

C. Mize

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 2 H

How it ended

TOR beat DET 2-1. Varsho's play in the top 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Win probability

DET vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORTop 7th Inning · 1-1
+21pp→ 47% WP

Pinango · homered to right (348 feet).

TORTop 10th Inning · 2-1
+26pp→ 64% WP

Varsho · singled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.

TORBottom 10th Inning · 2-1
+17pp→ 100% WP

Dingler · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
TOR00000010012
DET00000100001

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · DET won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Vierling 1

1
0

Inn 7

Pinango 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

1
0

Inn 10

Varsho 1

TOR
DET

Play-by-play · 555 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    TOR 2·DET 1

  2. B10

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 1

  3. B10

    Dingler struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 1

    −17pp

  4. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 1

  5. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 1

  6. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 1

  7. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 1

  8. B10

    Louis Varland pitches to Dillon Dingler

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 1

  9. B10

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 1

  10. B10

    McGonigle grounded out to first, Short to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 1

    −12pp

  11. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 1

  12. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 1

  13. B10

    Louis Varland pitches to Kevin McGonigle

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 1

  14. B10

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 1

  15. B10

    Rogers grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 1

    −14pp

  16. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 1

  17. B10

    Louis Varland pitches to Jake Rogers

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 1

  18. B10

    Clement at shortstop.

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 1

  19. B10

    Straw in left field.

    TOR 2·DET 1

  20. B10

    Pinango in right field.

    TOR 2·DET 1

  21. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    TOR 2·DET 1

  22. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    TOR 2·DET 1

  23. T10

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 1

  24. T10

    Clement flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 1

    +8pp

  25. T10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 1

  26. T10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 1

  27. T10

    Tyler Holton pitches to Ernie Clement

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 1

  28. T10

    Clement hit for Giménez

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 1

  29. T10

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 1

  30. T10

    Sosa doubled to left, Varsho to third.

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 1

    −5pp

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

DET

Home

2

Runs

1

5

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

10

TB

10

1

HR

1

1

BB

2

6

K

14

8

LOB

18

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 8·TOR -101/DET -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 13, 26sim 98
    62
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 97
    142
    6(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 96
    144
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 94
    92
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 94
    12
    4(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 9, 26sim 94
    61
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

DET vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    4.9± 2.2low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • George SpringerTOR
    1.7± 2.0high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    1.7± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Yohendrick PinangoTOR
    0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low
  • Keider MonteroDET
    2.5± 1.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    51.6%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.6%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278