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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1TOR
TOR

TOR

28-29

2
1
BAL

BAL

26-31

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
13,778 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

BAL no-vig %

55.1%

open 54.2% · +0.9

+0.5-2.0BAL SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL59.1%50.2%BAL NO-VIG %May 27, 4 PMMay 28, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 2 · BAL 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0010000102
BAL0001000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+14.4pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

TOR

★ best
+105DraftKings

edge +14.4pp · implied 46.7%

BAL

no live price

BookTORBALBest edge
DraftKings+105★-126+14.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Thu, May 28·Final/SeriesTOR leads series 1-0/VegasBAL -126

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays went into Baltimore Orioles and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

TOR +1.5 cashed (BAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Myles Straw

Myles Straw

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Coby Mayo

Coby Mayo

3B

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR28-29
2
1
BAL26-31
TOR28-29·BAL26-31
TOR

TOR

28-29

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-55110001
SPRINT25.920
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
1-33010000
SPRINT27.148
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
0-33000010
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-33000010
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
0-33000001
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
1-22010001
SPRINT25.818
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-44010001
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
1-44111101
SPRINT27.560
B. ValenzuelaB. Valenzuela★C
0-22000020
M. StrawM. StrawRF
1-11010000
SPRINT29.597
Team6-3030262155
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. CorbinP. Corbin★SP
5.0411141
B. FisherB. FisherRP
1.0000010
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0100020
T. RogersT. RogersRP
0.2200010
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.1100000
Team9.0811181
BAL

BAL

26-31

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
2-33020010
SPRINT27.457
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
0-44000001
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
1-44010000
SPRINT26.632
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-44010002
SPRINT25.29
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-22111101
SPRINT2872
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
1-44010001
SPRINT2993
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
0-22000001
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
1-44010001
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
1-33010001
S. BasalloS. BasalloC
0-11000000
W. WilsonW. Wilson3B
0-11000000
C. CowserC. CowserCF
0-22000000
Team8-3434181118
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. BassittC. Bassitt★SP
6.0411121
G. WolframG. WolframRP
1.0100000
A. NunezA. NunezRP
1.0111320
C. WestonC. WestonRP
1.0000110
Team9.0622551

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • P. Corbin
    80 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      35%·91.5 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      28%·76.8 mph·27% whiff
    • CH
      23%·78.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      10%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      67%·86.0 mph·71% whiff
    • FF
      19%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      14%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      85%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·73.5 mph·100% whiff
  • L. Varland
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      38%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      31%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      23%·91.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      8%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Fisher
    6 pitches·50% CSW
    • CU
      50%·79.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·87.8 mph·100% whiff

BAL

  • C. Bassitt
    80 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      49%·92.9 mph·21% whiff
    • FC
      21%·91.0 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      10%·71.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·80.1 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      5%·72.9 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Nunez
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      38%·86.5 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      29%·96.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      25%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·95.8 mph·— whiff
  • G. Wolfram
    17 pitches·12% CSW
    • SI
      59%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      12%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      12%·85.8 mph·— whiff
  • C. Weston
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      41%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      35%·78.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FO
      12%·79.0 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      12%·83.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

8

2

Runs

1

1

Errors

0

Current series

TOR leads series 1-0

May 28TORTOR2@BALBAL1today
May 29TORTOR6@BALBAL5
May 30TORTOR@BALBALupcoming
May 31TORTOR@BALBALupcoming

Season series

TOR leads series 1-0

May 28TORTOR2@BALBAL1today
May 29TORTOR6@BALBAL5
May 30TORTOR@BALBALupcoming
May 31TORTOR@BALBALupcoming
Jun 5BALBAL@TORTORupcoming
Jun 6BALBAL@TORTORupcoming
Jun 7BALBAL@TORTORupcoming
Sep 11BALBAL@TORTORupcoming
Sep 12BALBAL@TORTORupcoming
Sep 13BALBAL@TORTORupcoming
Sep 21TORTOR@BALBALupcoming
Sep 22TORTOR@BALBALupcoming
Sep 23TORTOR@BALBALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TORTOR+10549%
BALBAL-12656%

↘5· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 8th Inning

TORTOR
M. Straw

M. Straw

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

P. Corbin

P. Corbin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

BALBAL
C. Mayo

C. Mayo

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

C. Bassitt

C. Bassitt

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TOR beat BAL 2-1. Adley Rutschman's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BAL vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALBottom 4th Inning · 1-1
+14pp→ 57% WP

Mayo · homered to center (400 feet).

TORTop 8th Inning · 1-1
+14pp→ 61% WP

Springer · doubled to center.

TORTop 8th Inning · 2-1
+24pp→ 72% WP

Adley Rutschman · challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Yohendrick Piñango walks. George Springer scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 3rd. Daulton Varsho to 2nd.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0010000102
BAL0001000001

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · BAL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Gim 1

0
1

Inn 4

Mayo 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Rutschman 1

0
0

Inn 9

TOR
BAL

Play-by-play · 564 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TOR 2·BAL 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

  3. B9

    Holliday grounded out to first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

    −9pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

  5. B9

    Louis Varland pitches to Jackson Holliday

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

  6. B9

    ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

  7. B9

    Cowser grounded into fielder's choice to second, Taveras out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

    −12pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

  11. B9

    Louis Varland pitches to Colton Cowser

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

  12. B9

    ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

  13. B9

    Taveras singled to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

    +9pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

  16. B9

    Louis Varland pitches to Leody Taveras

    ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

  17. B9

    ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

  18. B9

    Wilson flied out to right.

    ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

    −5pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

  24. B9

    Louis Varland pitches to Weston Wilson

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TOR 2·BAL 1

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TOR 2·BAL 1

  27. T9

    ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

  28. T9

    Springer grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Valenzuela out at second.

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

  29. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 1

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

2

Runs

1

6

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

11

TB

12

1

HR

1

5

BB

1

5

K

8

19

LOB

16

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 8.5·TOR +105/BAL -126

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.87

CLV pp

Open price

+109

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

45.8%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 23, 26sim 97
    120
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 96
    122
    7(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 94
    23
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 93
    161
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 93
    124
    11(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 93
    281
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

BAL vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    49.8%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.1%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.5%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.01 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.