MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

TOP 6TH+3COL

COL

16-26

PIT

23-19

Live · model leanTop 6thPolls every 30s

58.4%

COL wins · current

Pre-game: 69.2% PIT

COL 6 · 3 PIT

COL +3

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsPIT leads

Key moments · live

newest first

Lead flipCOLTop 5th Inning · 6-3
+38pp→ 74% WP
Moniak · homered to right (372 feet), Tovar scored and Sullivan scored.
ClutchCOLTop 5th Inning · 2-3
+15pp→ 42% WP
McCarthy · doubled to right, Johnston scored, Karros to third.
SwingPITBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+15pp→ 86% WP
Davis · grounded into fielder's choice to third, Gonzales scored on interference by pitcher Quintana and O'Hearn scored, Davis second, Lowe safe at third on error.

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 6.77

J. Quintana

1-2 · 3.90 ERA

M. Keller

4-1 · 2.87 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

PIT no-vig %

62.2%

open 63.1% · -0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.6%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
69.2%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
70.4%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
69.3%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

76% confidence

Win prob · home

1.0%

-68.2ppvs pre-game · COL favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Why we like PIT.

PIT's edge is mostly travel burden plus model confidence. Line steam is the main caution flag.

+7.0

pp edge · PIT

-0.89

CLV pp

2.3u · medium

on PIT

68.3%

±5.5pp band

2.34u medium — +3.3pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+6.1pp

-0.9pp post-cal

Kelly

9.4%

2.3% sized

Decimal

1.54

+3.3pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 7.0pp · PIT over COL

▲
Travel burden58% conf
COL is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
+1.1pp
▲
Model confidence82% conf
PIT grades as a real model edge, not just noise.
+0.9pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
PIT has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.6pp
▼
Line steam66% conf
The market moved 0.9pp away from PIT since open.
-0.4pp

Open price

-194

Close price

-186

Open no-vig

63.1%

Close no-vig

62.2%

Market faded the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+19.6pp

best edge · COL · DraftKings

COL

★ best

+740DraftKings

edge +19.6pp · implied 11.2%

PIT

no live price

Book	COL	PIT	Best edge
DraftKings	+740★	-1720	+19.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

PIT vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.4± 2.5low
Paul SkenesPIT
6.2± 3.5low
Chase DollanderCOL
5.2± 4.0low

Hits

Nick GonzalesPIT
1.2± 1.5high
Oneil CruzPIT
1.2± 1.2high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Brandon LowePIT
2.3± 2.7high
Mickey MoniakCOL
2.2± 2.8high
Oneil CruzPIT
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Brandon LowePIT
0.9± 1.2high
Spencer HorwitzPIT
0.8± 1.1high
Jake McCarthyCOL
0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

Michael LorenzenCOL
3.2± 3.8low
Kyle FreelandCOL
2.9± 3.4low
Bubba ChandlerPIT
2.5± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One model★ Lock

Wed, May 13

COL

Rockies

16-31

vs69.2%PIT

PIT★

Pirates

24-20

COL 30.8%win prob69.2% PIT

PIT 1506 · COL 1389Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
E. Julien★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Moniak★LF	1-3	3	1	1	3	1	0	1
SPRINT2872
T. Freeman★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Rumfield★1B	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT24.85
T. Johnston★RF	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.326
K. Karros★3B	1-2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT27.251
J. McCarthy★LF	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
E. Tovar★SS	1-2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT27.867
B. Sullivan★C	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team	6-21	21	6	6	6	1	0	3

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-3

1-3

0-3

1-2

1-2

1-2

1-2

1-2

0-2

Team

6-21

	Pitching
J. Quintana★SP	4.0	5	3	2	3	2	0
A. SenzatelaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	5.0	5	3	2	3	3	0

Pitching

Player

J. Quintana★SP

4.0

A. SenzatelaRP

1.0

Team

5.0

	Batting
O. Cruz★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
K. Griffin★SS	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT29.899
B. Reynolds★LF	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT27.969
M. Ozuna★DH	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.614
R. O'Hearn★RF	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.735
N. Gonzales★3B	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
SPRINT28.586
B. Lowe★2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Triolo★SS	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
H. Davis★C	0-2	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team	5-19	19	3	5	2	0	3	3

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI