MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

TOP 7THTied

28-13

TOR

18-24

Live · model leanTop 7thPolls every 30s

53.6%

TB wins · current

Pre-game: 59.0% TB

TB 0 · 0 TOR

Tied

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 7

away leadsTOR leads

Key moments · live

newest first

Lead flipTORTop 7th Inning · 0-0
+6pp→ 51% WP
Díaz popped out to first.
ClutchTORBottom 5th Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 62% WP
Gim · énez singled to right.
Lead flipTORBottom 4th Inning · 0-0
+15pp→ 62% WP
Guerrero Jr. · walked.

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.58

G. Jax

1-2 · 5.00 ERA

D. Cease

3-1 · 2.58 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

TOR no-vig %

60.0%

open 58.3% · +1.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.9%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
41.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
43.9%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
40.9%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

81% confidence

Win prob · home

41.0%

+0.0ppvs pre-game · TB favored

Leverage

peak

Tied · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Why we like TB.

TB's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Travel burden is the main caution flag.

+16.4

pp edge · TB

-1.04

CLV pp

5.0u · large

on TB

59.7%

±5.3pp band

5u large — +15.1pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+17.0pp

+0.7pp post-cal

Kelly

27.2%

5.0% sized

Decimal

2.24

+15.1pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 16.4pp · TB over TOR

▲
Model confidence90% conf
TB clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▲
Venue split68% conf
TB's venue form is 23.2pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.2pp
▼
Travel burden58% conf
TB is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
-1.1pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
TB is 4-1 over its last 5; TOR is 2-3.
+0.8pp
▼
Line steam71% conf
The market moved 1.7pp away from TB since open.
-0.7pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
TB has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.6pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Market faded the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+15.5pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

★ best

+116DraftKings

edge +15.5pp · implied 43.5%

TOR

no live price

Book	TB	TOR	Best edge
DraftKings	+116★	-151	+15.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

TOR vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.3± 3.7low
Drew RasmussenTB
5.4± 2.7low
Kevin GausmanTOR
5.3± 4.2low

Hits

Jonathan ArandaTB
1.4± 1.3high
Chandler SimpsonTB
1.2± 0.9high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.1± 1.5high

Total bases

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.0± 1.8high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.9± 1.7high
Junior CamineroTB
1.6± 1.7high

RBIs

Jonathan ArandaTB
0.8± 1.0high
Andres GimenezTOR
0.7± 1.6high
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
0.7± 1.5high

Earned runs

Aaron BrooksTB
3.0± 3.3low
Kevin GausmanTOR
2.4± 2.4low
Patrick CorbinTOR
2.1± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

Wed, May 13

TB★

Rays

33-13

vs59.0%TB

TOR

Blue Jays

18-29

TB 59.0%win prob41.0% TOR

TB 1565 · TOR 1477Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
C. Simpson★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
SPRINT29.496
J. Caminero★3B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.716
J. Aranda★1B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
SPRINT25.29
Y. Diaz★DH	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.716
J. Fraley★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
SPRINT28.278
R. Palacios★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Mullins★CF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. Feduccia★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. Walls★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	2-19	19	0	2	0	0	2	8

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-2

1-3

1-2

0-3

0-2

0-2

0-1

0-2

0-2

Team

2-19

	Pitching
G. Jax★RP	5.0	4	0	0	4	1	0
H. BiggeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	6.0	4	0	0	4	1	0

Pitching

Player

G. Jax★RP

5.0

H. BiggeRP

1.0

Team

6.0

	Batting
G. Springer★DH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
SPRINT25.920
Y. Pinango★LF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT2622
V. Guerrero Jr.★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
SPRINT26.123
K. Okamoto★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. Varsho★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Sanchez★RF	2-2	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.818
E. Clement★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Gimenez★SS	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.560
T. Heineman★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	4-18	18	0	4	0	0	4	1

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI