Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at COL?

The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1COL

MIN

46-24-12

COL

55-16-11

NHLWed, May 13FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasCOL -230

MIN · top performer

Nick Foligno

LW · #71

2Points

—

SOG

COL · top performer

Nathan MacKinnon

C · #29

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoldyLW · #12	0	2	-1	5	3	0	0	22:55
N. FolignoLW · #71	2	0	0	3	3	1	0	12:45
M. FolignoLW · #17	0	0	-1	0	5	2	0	11:59
R. HartmanRW · #38	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	18:34
M. JohanssonLW · #90	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	16:15
K. KaprizovLW · #97	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	22:36
M. McCarronC · #47	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	17:31
N. SturmC · #78	0	2	1	2	2	1	0	12:54
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	11:03
Y. TreninC · #13	0	0	-1	1	4	0	0	12:34
D. YurovRW · #22	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	13:08
M. ZuccarelloRW · #36	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	18:57

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. FaberD · #7	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	32:06
Q. HughesD · #43	0	1	1	2	1	2	0	30:35
D. HuntD · #48	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	10:13
J. MiddletonD · #5	0	0	-2	0	3	3	0	21:55
J. PetryD · #2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:03
J. SpurgeonD · #46	0	0	-1	1	2	4	0	22:48

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WallstedtG · #30	34	4	30	.882	63:21

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. ColtonC · #20	0	0	-1	3	5	0	0	13:05
J. DruryC · #18	1	0	3	4	2	0	0	12:02
N. KadriC · #91	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:30
P. KellyC · #17	1	1	1	1	6	1	0	11:09
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	9:42
G. LandeskogLW · #92	0	0	0	4	4	1	2	24:44
N. MacKinnonC · #29	1	0	0	9	0	0	0	23:01
M. NecasC · #88	0	2	2	3	1	1	0	23:17
B. NelsonC · #11	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	16:17
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	15:32
L. O'ConnorRW · #25	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	12:56
N. RoyC · #10	0	1	0	1	2	2	0	14:33

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AhcanD · #15	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	3:35
B. BurnsD · #84	0	2	2	3	2	0	0	19:47
B. KulakD · #27	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	26:54
C. MakarD · #8	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	25:50
J. MansonD · #42	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	19:19
D. ToewsD · #7	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	29:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BlackwoodG · #39	13	3	10	.769	20:00
S. WedgewoodG · #41	7	0	7	1.000	43:14

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

COL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

COL wins series 4-1

May 4

MIN6@

COL9

May 6

MIN2@

COL5

May 10

COL1@

MIN5

May 12

COL5@

MIN2

May 14

MIN3@

COL4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN+19034%

COL-23070%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat MIN 4-3. N. MacKinnon led the way — 1 G · 9 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
MIN	3	0	0	0	3
COL	0	1	2	1	4

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · COL won 3

MIN

COL

Play-by-play · 372 plays

period

event

player

1st OT·3:52
Game End
MIN 3·COL 4
1st OT·3:52
End of OT
MIN 3·COL 4
1st OT·3:52
Brett Kulak Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (10), Parker Kelly (1)
· ·
MIN 3·COL 4
1st OT·3:34
Jack Drury Snap Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 3·COL 3
1st OT·3:19
Matt Boldy faceoff won against Jack Drury
·
MIN 3·COL 3
1st OT·3:19
Icing
MIN 3·COL 3
1st OT·3:01
Joel Kiviranta Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 3·COL 3
1st OT·2:57
Brock Faber shot blocked by Parker Kelly
·
MIN 3·COL 3
1st OT·2:12
Gabriel Landeskog shot blocked by Jake Middleton
·
MIN 3·COL 3
1st OT·2:11
Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
MIN 3·COL 3
1st OT·2:11
Puck in Netting
MIN 3·COL 3
1st OT·2:10
Logan O'Connor shot blocked by Quinn Hughes
·
MIN 3·COL 3
1st OT·1:48
Ross Colton Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
MIN 3·COL 3
1st OT·1:40
Michael McCarron faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
MIN 3·COL 3
1st OT·1:40
Icing
MIN 3·COL 3
1st OT·1:26
Giveaway by Matt Boldy
MIN 3·COL 3
1st OT·1:22
Nathan MacKinnon Backhand Above Crossbar
·
MIN 3·COL 3
1st OT·1:05
Gabriel Landeskog Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 3·COL 3
1st OT·0:54
Takeaway by Martin Necas
MIN 3·COL 3
1st OT·0:47
Michael McCarron faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon
·
MIN 3·COL 3
1st OT·0:47
Icing
MIN 3·COL 3
1st OT·0:15
Brent Burns hit Michael McCarron
·
MIN 3·COL 3
1st OT·0:12
Michael McCarron Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
MIN 3·COL 3
1st OT·0:00
Nazem Kadri faceoff won against Michael McCarron
·
MIN 3·COL 3
1st OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
MIN 3·COL 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MIN 3·COL 3
3rd·19:58
Giveaway by Martin Necas
MIN 3·COL 3
3rd·19:53
Gabriel Landeskog hit Mats Zuccarello
·
MIN 3·COL 3
3rd·19:45
Ryan Hartman hit Gabriel Landeskog
·
MIN 3·COL 3
3rd·19:10
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon
·
MIN 3·COL 3

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIN +190/COL -230

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche held off Minnesota Wild, 4–3 in overtime.

MIN +1.5 cashed (COL won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Brock FaberMIN · D
BURSTS2799+
Ross ColtonNSH · C
SKATE MPH23.799+
Cale MakarCOL · D
SKATE MPH23.999+
Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
iXG40.699+
Kirill KaprizovMIN · LW
iXG38.499+

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Nathan MacKinnon · COL23:180.7878.8%80.7%23:18 TOI · 0.78 iXG · 78.8% CF · 80.7% xGF
Gabriel Landeskog · COL25:000.6577.4%78.9%25:00 TOI · 0.65 iXG · 77.4% CF · 78.9% xGF
Ryan Hartman · MIN18:480.5940.0%54.8%18:48 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 40.0% CF · 54.8% xGF
Matt Boldy · MIN23:060.5343.1%47.8%23:06 TOI · 0.53 iXG · 43.1% CF · 47.8% xGF
Ross Colton · COL13:180.4755.6%63.2%13:18 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 55.6% CF · 63.2% xGF
Jack Drury · COL12:060.3548.0%41.2%12:06 TOI · 0.35 iXG · 48.0% CF · 41.2% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Scott Wedgewood · COL7–01.000+0.347–0 · 1.000 SV% · +0.34 GSAx
Jesper Wallstedt · MIN30–4.882-0.8030–4 · .882 SV% · -0.80 GSAx
Mackenzie Blackwood · COL10–3.769-1.4710–3 · .769 SV% · -1.47 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

74.4%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
73.7%
P(COL win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
73.7%
P(COL win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
73.7%
P(COL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-205

Close price

-205

Open no-vig

64.5%

Close no-vig

64.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at COL?: The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.5pp

best edge · COL · DraftKings

MIN

no live price

COL

★ best

-230DraftKings

edge +7.5pp · implied 66.9%

Book	MIN	COL	Best edge
DraftKings	+190	-230★	+7.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.