Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · COL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
135
projections · 117 high confidence
Shots on goal
Goals
Points
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
MIN · top performer
Matt Boldy
LW · #12
0
G
2
A
—
SOG
COL · top performer
Parker Kelly
C · #17
1
G
0
A
—
SOG
NHL · Box score
MIN
46-24-12
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
COL
55-16-11
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
0
PIM
2
Playoff series
COL leads series 3-1
MIN6@COL9MIN2@COL5COL1@MIN5COL5@MIN2MIN@COLtodayCOL@MINupcomingMIN@COLupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
COL -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN+19034%COL-23070%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
How it's going
MIN lead COL 3-1 (4:13 - 2nd).
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| COL | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
COL
Home
16
Shots
19
0.0
PCT
0.0
0
PIM
2
17
Faceoffs W
21
14
Blocks
6
9
Giveaways
5
2
Takeaways
4
Betting line
COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIN +190/COL -230
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
Period scoring
MIN won 1 · COL won 1
1
2
Play-by-play · 220 plays
Off-side
MIN 3·COL 1
Logan O'Connor shot blocked by Quinn Hughes
·
MIN 3·COL 1
Brock Nelson Tip-In Wide Right
·
MIN 3·COL 1
Brett Kulak Wide Left
·
MIN 3·COL 1
Brock Nelson Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
MIN 3·COL 1
Ross Colton hit Quinn Hughes
·
MIN 3·COL 1
Nathan MacKinnon shot blocked by Brock Faber
·
MIN 3·COL 1
Devon Toews Slap Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 3·COL 1
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Gabriel Landeskog
·
MIN 3·COL 1
Goalie Stopped
MIN 3·COL 1
Joel Kiviranta Tip-In saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 3·COL 1
Jack Drury Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
MIN 3·COL 1
Cale Makar shot blocked by Vladimir Tarasenko
·
MIN 3·COL 1
Jack Drury faceoff won against Nico Sturm
·
MIN 3·COL 1
Puck in Netting
MIN 3·COL 1
Nazem Kadri Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
MIN 3·COL 1
Giveaway by Marcus Johansson
MIN 3·COL 1
Brent Burns Snap Shot Wide Left
·
MIN 3·COL 1
Martin Necas shot blocked by Quinn Hughes
·
MIN 3·COL 1
Gabriel Landeskog faceoff won against Michael McCarron
·
MIN 3·COL 1
Icing
MIN 3·COL 1
Gabriel Landeskog hit Brock Faber
·
MIN 3·COL 1
Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
MIN 3·COL 1
Puck in Netting
MIN 3·COL 1
Quinn Hughes shot blocked by Nicolas Roy
·
MIN 3·COL 1
Nico Sturm faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
MIN 3·COL 1
Parker Kelly Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brent Burns (2), Brett Kulak (4)
· ·
MIN 3·COL 1
Jack Drury faceoff won against Michael McCarron
·
MIN 3·COL 0
Puck in Benches
MIN 3·COL 0
Matt Boldy Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
MIN 3·COL 0