SEA
1-1
TOR
0-1
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q4Key moments · live
newest firstModel ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · TOR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
SEA · top performer
Jade Melbourne
G · #5
14
Pts
1
Reb
6
Ast
TOR · top performer
Marina Mabrey
G · #3
20
Pts
3
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Box score
SEA
1-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| 18 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +4 | |
| 27 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -9 | |
| 16 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 24 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -9 | |
| 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 16 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | |
| 12 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 21 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +2 | |
| Team | 69 | 21 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 14 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson, E. Magbegor, A. Fam, T. Mair | ||||||||
TOR
0-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 19 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | |
| 26 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +4 | |
| 22 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +7 | |
| 24 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +10 | |
| 25 | 16 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| 19 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| Team | 75 | 27 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 12 | ||
| DNP: M. Fasoula | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
50
FG %
47
17
Ast
18
Season series
SEA@TORtodaySEA@TORupcomingTOR@SEAupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
TOR -3.5
Between — and 5
Total
168.5
Standard · +3.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.3h
Moneyline
SEA+13043%TOR-15561%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
+1.0 since open
Total
168.5
+3.0 since open
Live · top performers so far
6:47 - 4thRecent swing: 8pp · 4th Quarter · 8:23
Zia Cooke de · fensive rebound
SEAJ. Melbourne
GLeading · 6:47 - 4th · 21 min
14 PTS · 1 REB · 6 AST
On pace: 27 PTS · 2 REB · 11 AST
TORM. Mabrey
GLeading · 6:47 - 4th · 22 min
20 PTS · 3 REB · 2 AST
On pace: 36 PTS · 5 REB · 4 AST
How it's going
TOR lead SEA 75-69 (6:47 - 4th). M. Mabrey led with 20 PTS, 3 REB, 2 AST.
Win probability
TOR vs SEA
Starters vs bench
production by unitSEAstarters 67% of ptsStarters(5)
46 PTS · 12 REB · 9 AST
GS 31
Bench(5)
23 PTS · 9 REB · 8 AST
GS 19
TORstarters 60% of ptsStarters(5)
45 PTS · 17 REB · 15 AST
GS 43
Bench(6)
30 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST
GS 18
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMarina Mabrey · makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Julie Allemand assists)
Jade Melbourne · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Natisha Hiedeman assists)
Maria Conde · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julie Allemand assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 22 | 23 | 17 | 7 | 69 |
| TOR | 27 | 17 | 23 | 8 | 75 |
Period scoring
SEA won 1 · TOR won 3
Q1
Malonga 9
Conde 12
Q2
Melbourne 6
Sykes 13
Q3
Malonga 6
Mabrey 8
Q4
Johnson 3
Sykes 3
Shooting comparison
50%
26-52
FG
47%
27-58
41%
7-17
3PT
41%
9-22
77%
10-13
FT
86%
12-14
Play-by-play · 318 plays
Zia Cooke defensive rebound
SEA 69·TOR 75
−0.8pp
Kiki Rice misses 24-foot three point jumper
SEA 69·TOR 75
−3pp
Jade Melbourne makes 4-foot two point shot
SEA 69·TOR 75
−4pp
Storm defensive team rebound
SEA 67·TOR 75
−0.6pp
Marina Mabrey misses 29-foot three point step back jumpshot
SEA 67·TOR 75
−2pp
Nikolina Milic defensive rebound
SEA 67·TOR 75
+0.7pp
Zia Cooke misses 9-foot turnaround jump shot
SEA 67·TOR 75
+2pp
Marina Mabrey makes 2-foot layup (Nikolina Milic assists)
·
SEA 67·TOR 75
+4pp
Flau'jae Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 67·TOR 73
Marina Mabrey enters the game for Julie Allemand
·
SEA 66·TOR 73
Storm offensive team rebound
SEA 66·TOR 73
+3pp
Flau'jae Johnson misses free throw 1 of 2
SEA 66·TOR 73
+4pp
Kiki Rice shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SEA 66·TOR 73
−8pp
Kiki Rice makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brittney Sykes assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SEA 66·TOR 73
+8pp
Zia Cooke makes driving layup (Jade Melbourne assists)
·
SEA 66·TOR 70
−3pp
Laura Juskaite enters the game for Maria Conde
·
SEA 64·TOR 70
Maria Conde personal foul
SEA 64·TOR 70
−1pp
Brittney Sykes makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Julie Allemand assists)
·
SEA 64·TOR 70
+4pp
Tempo offensive team rebound
SEA 64·TOR 68
+4pp
Dominique Malonga blocks Maria Conde 's 2-foot reverse layup
·
SEA 64·TOR 68
−3pp
Brittney Sykes defensive rebound
SEA 64·TOR 68
+1pp
Zia Cooke misses 23-foot three point jumper
SEA 64·TOR 68
+4pp
Flau'jae Johnson defensive rebound
SEA 64·TOR 68
Brittney Sykes misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
SEA 64·TOR 68
−8pp
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 64·TOR 68
Flau'jae Johnson shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SEA 64·TOR 67
+8pp
Flau'jae Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 64·TOR 67
+3pp
Flau'jae Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 63·TOR 67
Brittney Sykes shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SEA 62·TOR 67
−9pp
Julie Allemand bad pass turnover (Flau'jae Johnson steals)
·
SEA 62·TOR 67
−3pp
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
TOR
Home
26-52
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
27-58
50
FG %
47
7-17
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-22
10-13
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-14
17
Assists
18
14
Turnovers
12
Betting line
TOR -3.5·O/U 168.5·SEA +130/TOR -155
