Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at TOR?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+13TOR

SEA

1-2

7386

TOR

1-1

WNBAWed, May 13FinalSeriesTOR leads series 2-0VegasTOR -3.5

SEA · top performer

Dominique Malonga

C · #14

13.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Marina Mabrey

G · #3

21.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSEA ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 11pp · 4th Quarter · 5:20

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. HorstonF · #23	18	1	—	—	1-2	-2	2	1
S. DolsonC · #31	22	16	6-8	2-3	2-2	-5	3	0
D. MalongaC · #14	32	21	9-19	2-3	1-4	-10	7	1
N. HiedemanG · #2	22	5	2-6	1-4	—	-11	0	5
F. JohnsonG · #4	29	7	2-7	0-1	3-4	-13	6	2
Bench
M. HolmesF · #54	5	0	—	—	—	-9	1	0
G. VanSlootenF · #40	12	2	—	—	2-2	0	2	0
L. BrownG · #8	16	0	0-1	0-1	—	-10	3	1
Z. CookeG · #7	16	7	3-8	1-5	—	0	3	2
J. MelbourneG · #5	28	14	5-9	1-3	3-3	-5	1	6
Team		73	27-58	7-20	12-17		28	18
DNP: K. Samuelson, E. Magbegor, A. Fam, T. Mair

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. SaballyF · #8	26	8	2-4	0-1	4-6	+8	5	3
T. KeyF · #7	8	2	1-1	—	—	+1	1	0
B. SykesG · #20	33	18	5-14	0-2	8-9	+11	8	6
M. MabreyG · #3	29	26	9-20	6-11	2-2	+14	4	3
J. AllemandG · #22	29	2	1-5	0-2	—	+19	3	6
Bench
M. CondeF · #10	29	16	6-13	4-8	—	+11	8	0
N. MilicF · #31	10	2	1-1	—	—	+3	1	1
L. JuskaiteF · #2	7	0	0-1	0-1	—	+4	1	0
K. NurseG · #11	7	0	0-1	0-1	—	-1	0	1
L. HeldG · #12	2	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
K. RiceG · #1	21	12	5-9	1-3	1-1	-3	2	1
Team		86	30-69	11-29	15-18		33	21
DNP: M. Fasoula

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

27-58

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

30-69

FG %

7-20

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-29

12-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR leads series 2-0

May 13

SEA73@

TOR86today

May 30

SEA72@

TOR93

Aug 27

TOR@

SEAupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

168.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

SEA+13043%

TOR-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -3.5↗SpreadBet TOR -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

+1.0 since open

Total

168.5

+3.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat SEA 86-73. M. Mabrey paced them with 26 PTS, 4 REB, 3 AST. TOR outscored the other side 19-11 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs SEA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SEAstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

50 PTS · 18 REB · 9 AST

GS 30

Bench(5)

23 PTS · 10 REB · 9 AST

GS 16

TORstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

56 PTS · 21 REB · 18 AST

GS 54

Bench(6)

30 PTS · 12 REB · 3 AST

GS 18

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SEA2nd Quarter · 1:45 · 43-44

+10pp→ 40% WP

Jade Melbourne · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Natisha Hiedeman assists)

TOR3rd Quarter · 5:00 · 52-56

+10pp→ 70% WP

Maria Conde · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julie Allemand assists)

TOR4th Quarter · 5:20 · 71-75

+11pp→ 78% WP

Jordan Horston · misses free throw 2 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SEA	22	23	17	11	73
TOR	27	17	23	19	86

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · TOR won 3

Malonga 9

Conde 12

Melbourne 6

Sykes 13

Malonga 6

Mabrey 8

Johnson 3

Mabrey 8

SEA

TOR

Shooting comparison

SEA

TOR

47%

27-58

43%

30-69

35%

7-20

3PT

38%

11-29

71%

12-17

83%

15-18

Play-by-play · 384 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 73·TOR 86
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 73·TOR 86
Q4·11.4
Tempo defensive team rebound
SEA 73·TOR 86
Q4·13.9
Natisha Hiedeman misses 25-foot three point jumper
SEA 73·TOR 86
Q4·20.1
Zia Cooke defensive rebound
SEA 73·TOR 86
Q4·22.9
Julie Allemand misses 27-foot three point shot
SEA 73·TOR 86
Q4·44.8
Tempo defensive team rebound
SEA 73·TOR 86
Q4·44.8
Jade Melbourne vs. Julie Allemand (Nyara Sabally gains possession)
· ·
SEA 73·TOR 86
Q4·48.4
Natisha Hiedeman misses 24-foot three point jumper
SEA 73·TOR 86
Q4·55.9
Dominique Malonga defensive rebound
SEA 73·TOR 86
Q4·59.9
Marina Mabrey misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot
SEA 73·TOR 86
Q4·1:13
Flau'jae Johnson bad pass turnover (Maria Conde steals)
·
SEA 73·TOR 86
Q4·1:24
Flau'jae Johnson defensive rebound
SEA 73·TOR 86
Q4·1:25
Nyara Sabally misses free throw 2 of 2
SEA 73·TOR 86
Q4·1:25
Flau'jae Johnson enters the game for Stefanie Dolson
·
SEA 73·TOR 86
Q4·1:25
Nyara Sabally makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 73·TOR 86
Q4·1:25
Stefanie Dolson shooting foul
SEA 73·TOR 85
Q4·1:42
Natisha Hiedeman lost ball turnover (Marina Mabrey steals)
·
SEA 73·TOR 85
Q4·1:48
Nyara Sabally makes driving layup (Marina Mabrey assists)
·
SEA 73·TOR 85
+0.6pp
Q4·2:06
Jade Melbourne bad pass turnover (Nyara Sabally steals)
·
SEA 73·TOR 83
+0.7pp
Q4·2:16
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 73·TOR 83
Q4·2:16
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 73·TOR 82
Q4·2:16
Stefanie Dolson shooting foul
SEA 73·TOR 81
+2pp
Q4·2:23
Jade Melbourne personal foul
SEA 73·TOR 81
Q4·2:33
Stefanie Dolson makes 5-foot floating jump shot (Zia Cooke assists)
·
SEA 73·TOR 81
−0.7pp
Q4·2:50
Dominique Malonga defensive rebound
SEA 71·TOR 81
Q4·2:52
Maria Conde misses 4-foot jumper
SEA 71·TOR 81
−0.8pp
Q4·2:53
Maria Conde offensive rebound
SEA 71·TOR 81
+0.9pp
Q4·2:56
Julie Allemand misses 23-foot three point jumper
SEA 71·TOR 81
−0.6pp
Q4·3:13
Dominique Malonga enters the game for Jordan Horston
·
SEA 71·TOR 81

Betting line

TOR -3.5·O/U 168.5·SEA +130/TOR -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

oronto Tempo held off Seattle Storm, 86–73.

TOR -3.5 cashed (won by 13). Total stayed UNDER 168.5 by 9.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

SEA

TOR

eFG%

shooting

52.6%

51.4%

TOV%

ball control

22.5%

13.5%

OREB%

offensive glass

11.1%

26.5%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

20.7%

21.7%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Marina MabreyTOR · G
USG%.29496
Brittney SykesTOR · G
USG%.29195
Nyara SaballyTOR · F
ORB%.10991
Stefanie DolsonSEA · C
TS%.64588
Natisha HiedemanSEA · G
USG%.25484

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.4%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
63.6%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
68.1%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
68.6%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.04

CLV pp

Open price

-155

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at TOR?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

SEA

no live price

TOR

no live price

Book	SEA	TOR	Best edge
DraftKings	+130	-155	+0.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TOR vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 80 high confidence

Points

Marina MabreyTOR
23.1± 13.1high
Brittney SykesTOR
18.1± 10.6medium
Natisha HiedemanSEA
16.6± 8.6high

Rebounds

Dominique MalongaSEA
9.5± 3.3high
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
6.8± 2.8medium
Awa FamSEA
6.6± 2.6high

Assists

Julie AllemandTOR
6.4± 3.6high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
4.4± 2.5high
Jade MelbourneSEA
3.8± 1.0high

Blocks

Awa FamSEA
1.3± 0.7high
Dominique MalongaSEA
1.2± 1.2high
Nyara SaballyTOR
0.9± 1.5medium

Steals

Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
1.7± 1.2high
Julie AllemandTOR
1.4± 1.0high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
1.3± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Seattle StormToronto Tempo

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop