Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LV at CON?

The model favors CON, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+29LV

2-1

9869

CON

0-3

WNBAWed, May 13FinalSeriesLV leads series 2-0VegasLV -14.5

LV · top performer

Chennedy Carter

G · #23

24.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CON · top performer

Olivia Nelson-Ododa

C · #10

12.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLV ↔ CON

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. TalbotF · #7	12	4	2-2	—	—	+7	2	0
N. SmithF · #3	18	6	2-4	—	2-4	+5	5	2
A. WilsonC · #22	21	22	8-15	—	6-9	+33	11	1
C. GrayG · #12	26	7	3-7	1-3	—	+29	6	6
J. YoungG · #0	27	11	4-10	0-2	3-3	+14	1	6
Bench
C. Parker-TyusF · #32	18	10	3-5	—	4-5	+23	5	1
B. TurnerF · #21	18	0	—	—	—	-3	5	0
K. BellF · #1	9	0	0-2	0-1	—	-1	1	0
J. LoydG · #24	28	11	4-11	3-8	—	+22	2	1
C. CarterG · #23	25	27	13-16	1-2	—	+16	8	4
Team		98	39-72	5-16	15-21		46	21
DNP: J. Barker, D. Evans

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. MillerF · #1	24	5	1-9	1-3	2-2	-27	2	1
O. Nelson-OdodaC · #10	22	14	5-7	—	4-4	-13	6	3
K. BurkeG · #25	31	4	2-8	0-3	—	-21	1	5
S. RiversG · #22	30	8	2-11	0-1	4-4	-19	1	4
C. Leger-WalkerG · #4	16	2	1-2	—	—	-16	2	2
Bench
A. MorrowF · #24	24	16	4-16	1-3	7-10	-23	11	0
R. BeersF · #15	14	7	3-8	—	1-2	-5	3	0
H. Van LithG · #2	22	9	3-5	1-2	2-2	-14	0	1
G. KneepkensG · #5	16	4	2-4	0-1	—	-7	3	0
Team		69	23-70	3-13	20-24		29	16
DNP: A. Edwards, B. Griner, S. Peddy, A. Jackson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

CON

Home

39-72

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

23-70

FG %

5-16

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

3-13

15-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-24

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LV leads series 2-0

May 14

LV98@

CON69today

May 15

LV101@

CON94

Aug 21

CON@

LVupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LV -14.5

Between 10 and —

1.0pt· 6.3h

Total

172.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

LV-110092%

CON+70013%

125· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LV -14.5↗SpreadBet LV -14.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

14.5

+1.0 since open

Total

172.5

-2.0 since open

How it ended

LV beat CON 98-69. C. Carter paced them with 27 PTS, 8 REB, 4 AST. LV outscored the other side 30-16 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CON vs LV

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LVstarters 51% of pts

Starters(5)

50 PTS · 25 REB · 15 AST

GS 46

Bench(5)

48 PTS · 21 REB · 6 AST

GS 39

CONstarters 48% of pts

Starters(5)

33 PTS · 12 REB · 15 AST

GS 13

Bench(4)

36 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST

GS 25

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LV	28	20	30	20	98
CON	19	18	16	16	69

Period scoring

LV won 4 · CON won 0

Carter 8

Rivers 6

Carter 6

Morrow 10

Wilson 14

Lith 6

Carter 9

Beers 7

CON

Shooting comparison

CON

54%

39-72

33%

23-70

31%

5-16

3PT

23%

3-13

71%

15-21

83%

20-24

Play-by-play · 416 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 98·CON 69
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 98·CON 69
Q4·2.6
Chennedy Carter traveling turnover
LV 98·CON 69
Q4·25.8
Charlisse Leger-Walker out of bounds bad pass turnover
LV 98·CON 69
Q4·48.4
NaLyssa Smith out of bounds bad pass turnover
LV 98·CON 69
Q4·53.6
NaLyssa Smith defensive rebound
LV 98·CON 69
Q4·54.9
Raegan Beers misses layup
LV 98·CON 69
Q4·1:07
Olivia Nelson-Ododa defensive rebound
LV 98·CON 69
Q4·1:08
Jewell Loyd misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
LV 98·CON 69
Q4·1:22
Olivia Nelson-Ododa offensive foul turnover
LV 98·CON 69
Q4·1:22
Olivia Nelson-Ododa offensive charge
LV 98·CON 69
Q4·1:31
Charlisse Leger-Walker enters the game for Saniya Rivers
·
LV 98·CON 69
Q4·1:31
Chennedy Carter out of bounds lost ball turnover
LV 98·CON 69
Q4·1:52
Hailey Van Lith makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Saniya Rivers assists)
·
LV 98·CON 69
Q4·2:17
Raegan Beers defensive rebound
LV 98·CON 66
Q4·2:17
NaLyssa Smith misses running layup
LV 98·CON 66
Q4·2:21
Chennedy Carter defensive rebound
LV 98·CON 66
Q4·2:22
Saniya Rivers misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
LV 98·CON 66
Q4·2:40
Jewell Loyd offensive foul turnover
LV 98·CON 66
Q4·2:40
Jewell Loyd offensive charge
LV 98·CON 66
Q4·2:47
Raegan Beers makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 98·CON 66
Q4·2:47
Sun offensive team rebound
LV 98·CON 65
Q4·2:47
Raegan Beers misses free throw 1 of 2
LV 98·CON 65
Q4·2:47
NaLyssa Smith shooting foul
LV 98·CON 65
Q4·3:05
NaLyssa Smith offensive foul turnover
LV 98·CON 65
Q4·3:05
NaLyssa Smith offensive charge
LV 98·CON 65
Q4·3:17
NaLyssa Smith enters the game for Cheyenne Parker-Tyus
·
LV 98·CON 65
Q4·3:17
Gianna Kneepkens enters the game for Kennedy Burke
·
LV 98·CON 65
Q4·3:17
Hailey Van Lith out of bounds bad pass turnover
LV 98·CON 65
Q4·3:25
Olivia Nelson-Ododa defensive rebound
LV 98·CON 65

Betting line

LV -14.5·O/U 172.5·LV -1100/CON +700

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

as Vegas Aces went into Connecticut Sun and beat them, 98–69. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LV -14.5 cashed (won by 29). Total stayed UNDER 172.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CON

eFG%

shooting

57.6%

35.0%

TOV%

ball control

15.6%

13.9%

OREB%

offensive glass

36.4%

19.0%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

20.8%

28.6%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

NaLyssa SmithLV · F
eFG%.69599+
A'ja WilsonLV · C
USG%.32399+
Aneesah MorrowCON · F
DRB%.37599+
Jackie YoungLV · G
AST/TO3.396
Chelsea GrayLV · G
AST/TO2.183

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

7.1%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
17.5%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
15.7%
P(CON win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
19.3%
P(CON win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.47 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.23

CLV pp

Open price

+625

Close price

+700

Open no-vig

13.2%

Close no-vig

12.0%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LV at CON?: The model favors CON, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.9pp

best edge · LV · DraftKings

★ best

-1100DraftKings

edge +4.9pp · implied 88.0%

CON

no live price

Book	LV	CON	Best edge
DraftKings	-1100★	+700	+4.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CON vs LV.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
25.4± 8.1high
Jackie YoungLV
17.6± 8.4high
Brittney GrinerCON
14.5± 7.5medium

Rebounds

A'ja WilsonLV
9.7± 4.0high
Aneesah MorrowCON
8.6± 5.4high
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
6.4± 2.9high

Assists

Chelsea GrayLV
7.0± 2.0high
Jackie YoungLV
6.1± 3.4high
Leila LacanCON
4.5± 1.6medium

Blocks

Brittney GrinerCON
1.8± 1.0medium
A'ja WilsonLV
1.7± 1.4high
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
1.1± 1.2high

Steals

Leila LacanCON
2.1± 1.7medium
A'ja WilsonLV
1.7± 1.5high
Jewell LoydLV
1.5± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Las Vegas AcesConnecticut Sun

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop