MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

BOT 3RD+2MIA

MIA

19-23

MIN

19-23

Live · model leanBot 3rdPolls every 30s

60.5%

MIA wins · current

Pre-game: 52.3% MIN

MIA 4 · 2 MIN

MIA +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 3

away leadsMIN leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingMINBottom 3rd Inning · 4-2
+10pp→ 31% WP
Buxton · homered to left center (418 feet).
SwingMIATop 2nd Inning · 4-1
+14pp→ 81% WP
Caissie · homered to left center (400 feet), Jiménez scored.
SwingMIABottom 1st Inning · 2-1
+7pp→ 59% WP
Clemens · popped out to shortstop.
SwingMINBottom 1st Inning · 2-1
+10pp→ 42% WP
Buxton · homered to left (382 feet).
SwingMIATop 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 65% WP
Hicks · safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Keaschall, Edwards safe at third on error.

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 9.71

M. Meyer

2-0 · 2.79 ERA

S. Woods Richardson

0-5 · 6.92 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIN spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 9.0 · -0.5

MIN no-vig %

46.8%

open 46.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.0%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
52.3%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.8%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

62% confidence

Win prob · home

17.3%

-35.0ppvs pre-game · MIA favored

Leverage

medium

One swing game · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Why we like MIN.

MIN's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. The signals lean the same way.

+6.3

pp edge · MIN

0.00

CLV pp

1.6u · medium

on MIN

51.4%

±7.3pp band

1.6u medium — +3.3pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+5.4pp

-0.9pp post-cal

Kelly

6.4%

1.6% sized

Decimal

2.08

+3.3pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 6.3pp · MIN over MIA

▲
Model confidence90% conf
MIN clears the model's lock threshold.
+4.5pp
▲
Venue split64% conf
MIN's venue form is 7.1pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.2pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
MIN has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.6pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+104

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+17.8pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

MIA

no live price

MIN

★ best

+173DraftKings

edge +17.8pp · implied 34.4%

Book	MIA	MIN	Best edge
DraftKings	-231	+173★	+17.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

MIN vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 67 high confidence

Strikeouts

Eury PerezMIA
5.9± 2.6low
Max MeyerMIA
5.6± 1.8low
Connor PrielippMIN
5.3± 1.3low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.4± 1.0high
Brooks LeeMIN
1.2± 1.1high
Austin MartinMIN
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
2.6± 2.7high
Ryan JeffersMIN
2.2± 2.5high
Otto LopezMIA
2.0± 1.4high

RBIs

Liam HicksMIA
0.8± 1.1high
Byron BuxtonMIN
0.8± 1.1high
Brooks LeeMIN
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
3.8± 2.3low
Eury PerezMIA
2.9± 2.0low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
2.8± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

Wed, May 13

MIA

Marlins

23-24

vs52.3%MIN

MIN★

Twins

25-24

MIA 47.7%win prob52.3% MIN

MIN 1483 · MIA 1492Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
X. Edwards★2B	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
SPRINT2872
L. Hicks★C	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.614
O. Lopez★SS	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT28.381
K. Stowers★LF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. Norby★1B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Marsee★CF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. Jimenez★2B	1-1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.662
O. Caissie★RF	1-1	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
SPRINT28.586
J. Mack★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	4-12	12	4	4	3	1	3	1

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-1

0-2

1-2

0-1

1-2

0-1

1-1

1-1

0-1

Team

4-12

	Pitching
M. Meyer★SP	2.0	3	2	2	0	3	2
Team	2.0	3	2	2	0	3	2

Pitching

Player

M. Meyer★SP

2.0

Team

2.0

	Batting
B. Buxton★CF	2-2	2	2	2	2	2	0	0
SPRINT29.597
B. Lee★SS	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.428
A. Martin★LF	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.867
J. Bell★DH	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.18
K. Clemens★1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.457
L. Keaschall★2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Caratini★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Wallner★RF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Gray★3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	3-10	10	2	3	2	2	0	3

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

B. Buxton★CF

2-2