MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

MID 6THTied

WSH

20-22

CIN

22-20

Live · model leanMid 6thPolls every 30s

53.9%

CIN wins · current

Pre-game: 59.8% CIN

WSH 6 · 6 CIN

Tied

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6

away leadsCIN leads

Key moments · live

newest first

ClutchWSHTop 5th Inning · 5-6
+11pp→ 46% WP
Lile · singled to center, Young to third.
SwingCINBottom 3rd Inning · 5-5
+10pp→ 67% WP
Steer · singled to left.
SwingWSHTop 2nd Inning · 4-5
+13pp→ 27% WP
Ruiz · homered to left (386 feet), Wiemer scored.
SwingCINBottom 1st Inning · 0-5
+19pp→ 93% WP
Stephenson · homered to left center (406 feet), Bleday scored, Steer scored and Lowe scored.
SwingCINBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 72% WP
Bleday · doubled to right, De La Cruz scored.

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 11.97

J. Irvin

1-4 · 5.22 ERA

N. Lodolo

0-1 · 6.75 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

CIN spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.5 · -0.5

CIN no-vig %

59.3%

open 58.3% · +1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.9%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
59.8%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.0%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.74 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

76% confidence

Win prob · home

49.8%

-10.0ppvs pre-game · WSH favored

Leverage

peak

Tied · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Why we like WSH.

WSH's edge is driven by head to head. Travel burden keeps it from reading cleaner.

+2.4

pp edge · WSH

+1.72

CLV pp · steam

Pass

41.1%

±6.5pp band

Pass — model probability is at or below the coin flip line.

Edge

+3.3pp

+0.9pp post-cal

Kelly

—

no stake

Decimal

2.53

+1.6pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 2.4pp · WSH over CIN

▼
Travel burden58% conf
WSH is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
-1.1pp
▼
Model confidence68% conf
WSH sits near the model-market noise floor.
-0.8pp
▼
Line steam67% conf
The market moved 1pp away from WSH since open.
-0.4pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
WSH has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.2pp

Open price

-156

Close price

-168

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

60.0%

Market steamed in our direction

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.5pp

best edge · WSH · DraftKings

WSH

★ best

+178DraftKings

edge +6.5pp · implied 33.7%

CIN

no live price

Book	WSH	CIN	Best edge
DraftKings	+178★	-241	+6.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

CIN vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.0± 4.0low
Foster GriffinWSH
5.3± 3.7low
Jake IrvinWSH
5.1± 2.8low

Hits

Elly De La CruzCIN
1.3± 1.2high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.1± 1.1high
Blake DunnCIN
1.0± 1.4low

Total bases

Blake DunnCIN
2.3± 3.4low
JJ BledayCIN
2.3± 2.6low
James WoodWSH
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

CJ AbramsWSH
1.0± 1.6high
JJ BledayCIN
0.9± 1.1low
Brady HouseWSH
0.9± 1.4high

Earned runs

Chris PaddackCIN
3.7± 4.0low
Zack LittellWSH
3.5± 3.3low
Miles MikolasWSH
3.1± 4.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

Wed, May 13

WSH

Nationals

22-26

vs59.8%CIN

CIN★

Reds

26-20

WSH 40.2%win prob59.8% CIN

CIN 1505 · WSH 1460Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
J. Wood★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Mead★1B	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
SPRINT26.838
B. House★3B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Abrams★SS	2-3	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
SPRINT28.483
J. Young★CF	2-2	2	2	2	0	0	1	0
SPRINT29.496
D. Lile★LF	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. Wiemer★RF	1-2	2	1	1	2	0	1	1
SPRINT28.891
N. Nunez★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Ruiz★C	1-3	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
SPRINT25.411
L. Garcia Jr.1B	0-1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team	8-25	25	6	8	6	1	3	8

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-3

1-3

0-4

2-3

2-2

1-2

1-2

0-2

1-3

0-1

Team

8-25

	Pitching
J. Irvin★SP	3.0	4	6	5	4	4	1
M. ParkerRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	1	0
Team	5.0	4	6	5	5	5	1

Pitching

Player

J. Irvin★SP

3.0

M. ParkerRP

2.0

Team

5.0

	Batting
W. Benson★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. De La Cruz★SS	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT2872
S. Stewart★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Bleday★LF	1-2	2	1	1	1	0	1	1
SPRINT27.457
S. Steer★LF	1-2	2	2	1	0	0	1	0
SPRINT28.483
N. Lowe★DH	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	2	1
SPRINT25.411
T. Stephenson★C	1-3	3	1	1	4	1	0	1
SPRINT26.735
T. Friedl★CF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. McLain★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. MyersCF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	4-19	19	6	4	5	1	5	5

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI