Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CLE at DET?

The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4CLE

CLE

52-30

117113

DET

60-22

NBAWed, May 13FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasDET -4.5

CLE · top performer

Max Strus

G · #2

21.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DET · top performer

Cade Cunningham

G · #2

28.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCLE ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 21pp · 3rd Quarter · 3:28

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	23	0	—	—	—	+2	6	0
J. AllenC · #31	36	16	6-10	—	4-5	+14	10	1
E. MobleyC · #4	43	19	6-13	2-3	5-6	-7	8	8
J. HardenG · #1	43	30	8-21	3-10	11-14	+11	8	6
D. MitchellG · #45	42	21	7-18	1-8	6-6	-4	4	3
Bench
D. SchroderG · #8	17	5	1-4	0-1	3-5	+9	0	5
M. StrusG · #2	36	20	6-8	6-8	2-2	+9	8	1
S. MerrillG · #5	21	6	2-5	2-5	—	-7	0	1
J. TysonG · #20	3	0	0-1	—	—	-7	0	0
Team		117	36-80	14-35	31-38		44	25
DNP: L. Nance Jr., N. Tomlin, T. Bryant, C. Porter Jr., K. Ellis, T. Proctor

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	40	13	6-19	1-7	—	-2	6	3
J. DurenC · #0	25	9	3-5	—	3-4	-16	5	4
C. CunninghamG · #2	48	39	13-27	6-10	7-8	-4	7	9
A. ThompsonG · #9	41	6	2-6	0-1	2-2	+1	7	5
D. JenkinsG · #24	41	19	8-17	2-8	1-1	-9	2	3
Bench
P. ReedF · #7	17	10	4-7	—	2-2	0	8	1
I. StewartF · #28	11	8	3-5	2-3	—	+12	2	1
C. LeVertG · #8	24	7	2-7	0-3	3-3	-7	1	1
K. HuerterG · #27	3	0	—	—	—	-4	0	1
M. SasserG · #25	16	2	1-2	0-1	—	+9	2	0
Team		113	42-95	11-33	18-20		40	28
DNP: T. Smith, R. Holland II, J. Green, C. Lanier

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

DET

Home

36-80

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-95

FG %

14-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-33

31-38

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-20

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

CLE leads series 3-2

May 5

CLE101@

DET111

May 7

CLE97@

DET107

May 9

DET109@

CLE116

May 12

DET103@

CLE112

May 14

CLE117@

DET113today

May 15

DET115@

CLE94

May 18

CLE125@

DET94

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

210.5

Defensive · -15.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE+14241%

DET-17063%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -4.5↗SpreadBet DET -4.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

210.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CLE beat DET 117-113. M. Strus led with 20 PTS, 8 REB, 1 AST. CLE outscored the other side 32-20 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DET vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 36 REB · 18 AST

GS 71

Bench(4)

31 PTS · 8 REB · 7 AST

GS 27

DETstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 27 REB · 24 AST

GS 73

Bench(5)

27 PTS · 13 REB · 4 AST

GS 24

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CLE3rd Quarter · 3:28 · 73-75

+21pp→ 35% WP

Dennis Schroder · makes free throw 1 of 2

DETOT · 3:00 · 107-103

+17pp→ 34% WP

Jarrett Allen · shooting foul

DETOT · 28.7 · 113-109

+15pp→ 28% WP

Max Strus · personal foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
CLE	27	25	32	19	14	117
DET	29	31	20	23	10	113

Period scoring

CLE won 2 · DET won 3

Strus 6

Cunningham 10

Harden 9

Cunningham 10

Harden 9

Schroder 15

Mobley 7

Cunningham 8

Mitchell 7

Reed 6

CLE

DET

Shooting comparison

CLE

DET

45%

36-80

44%

42-95

40%

14-35

3PT

33%

11-33

82%

31-38

90%

18-20

Play-by-play · 505 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
CLE 117·DET 113
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
CLE 117·DET 113
OT·0.7
Paul Reed makes 2-foot driving dunk (Daniss Jenkins assists)
·
CLE 117·DET 113
OT·3.4
Pistons Full timeout
CLE 117·DET 111
OT·3.4
Evan Mobley makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 117·DET 111
OT·3.4
Evan Mobley makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 116·DET 111
OT·3.4
Paul Reed personal foul
CLE 115·DET 111
−0.9pp
OT·3.4
Evan Mobley defensive rebound
CLE 115·DET 111
−0.9pp
OT·4.1
Daniss Jenkins misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
CLE 115·DET 111
−6pp
OT·8.8
Cade Cunningham offensive rebound
CLE 115·DET 111
+3pp
OT·10.3
Tobias Harris misses 27-foot running jump shotBIG MOMENT
CLE 115·DET 111
−6pp
OT·16.8
Paul Reed defensive rebound
CLE 115·DET 111
−0.7pp
OT·18.8
James Harden misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CLE 115·DET 111
+9pp
OT·18.8
James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 115·DET 111
−0.8pp
OT·18.8
Cade Cunningham personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 114·DET 111
−7pp
OT·22.1
James Harden offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
CLE 114·DET 111
−10pp
OT·24.4
James Harden misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CLE 114·DET 111
+13pp
OT·24.4
Dean Wade enters the game for Dennis Schroder
·
CLE 114·DET 111
OT·24.4
Tobias Harris enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
CLE 114·DET 111
OT·24.4
James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 114·DET 111
−1pp
OT·24.4
Paul Reed personal foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 113·DET 111
−11pp
OT·25.9
Dennis Schroder enters the game for Jarrett Allen
·
CLE 113·DET 111
OT·25.9
Ausar Thompson enters the game for Tobias Harris
·
CLE 113·DET 111
OT·25.9
Cavaliers Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
CLE 113·DET 111
−6pp
OT·25.9
(00:25.9) [Cavaliers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)BIG MOMENT
CLE 113·DET 111
+6pp
OT·25.9
Cade Cunningham makes 21-foot pullup jump shot (Tobias Harris assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 113·DET 111
+6pp
OT·28.7
Pistons Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
CLE 113·DET 109
−14pp
OT·28.7
Max Strus personal foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 113·DET 109
+15pp
OT·28.7
Cade Cunningham defensive rebound
CLE 113·DET 109
+1pp
OT·29.2
James Harden misses 5-foot floating jump shot
CLE 113·DET 109
+3pp

Betting line

DET -4.5·O/U 210.5·CLE +142/DET -170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers went into Detroit Pistons and beat them, 117–113 in overtime. Decided by 4.

CLE +4.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total cleared the 210.5 OVER by 19.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.5%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
39.5%
P(DET win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
44.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
38.1%
P(DET win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

2.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

83% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.31

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+136

Close price

+150

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

38.4%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CLE at DET?: The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+20.9pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

CLE

★ best

+142DraftKings

edge +20.9pp · implied 39.6%

DET

no live price

Book	CLE	DET	Best edge
DraftKings	+142★	-170	+20.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

DET vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
James HardenCLE
19.6± 6.6high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Donovan MitchellCLE
3.9± 2.0high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high
Jalen DurenDET
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
Elijah HarklessDET
1.5± 1.4high
James HardenCLE
1.4± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

DET

55.6%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.2%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

48.0%

117.4

PPG

◀

114.9

115.9

27.1

Assists / G

25.0

27.0

13.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR