CLE
52-30
DET
60-22
59.5%
DET wins · current
Pre-game: 62.0% DET
CLE 64 · 66 DET
DET +2
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q3Key moments · live
newest firstLive · model intelligence
79% confidence
Win prob · home
62.3%
Leverage
85
peak
2-point game
Live edge
—
No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.
Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.
Line shopping · 1 book
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+1.6pp
best edge · DET · DraftKings
CLE
no live price
DET
★ bestedge +1.6pp · implied 60.4%
| Book | CLE | DET | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +142 | -170★ | +1.6 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
The receipts
DET's edge is driven by line steam. Model confidence keeps it from reading cleaner.
+1.6
pp edge · DET
+2.31
CLV pp · steam
62.0%
±8.9pp band
Pass — negative expected value (-1pp edge).
Edge
+1.6pp
no calibration shift
Kelly
—
no stake
Decimal
1.59
-1.0pp vs price
Contributor breakdown · sums to 1.6pp · DET over CLE
DET sits near the model-market noise floor.
The market moved 1pp toward DET since open.
CLE has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
Open price
-162
Close price
-180
Open no-vig
59.3%
Close no-vig
61.6%
Market steamed in our direction
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
CLE · top performer
James Harden
G · #1
19
Pts
2
Reb
3
Ast
DET · top performer
Cade Cunningham
G · #2
22
Pts
2
Reb
5
Ast
NBA · Box score
CLE
52-30
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 16 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| 21 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +13 | |
| 23 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -14 | |
CONT9.497 DEFL2.670 TOUCHES63.659 | ||||||||
| 24 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +8 | |
DRIVES12.676 TOUCHES70.370 DEFL2.670 | ||||||||
| 23 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -14 | |
DRIVES12.371 TOUCHES63.659 DEFL1.512 | ||||||||
| 9 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +7 | |
| 16 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | |
| 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| Team | 64 | 21 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 11 | ||
| DNP: L. Nance Jr., N. Tomlin, T. Bryant, C. Porter Jr., K. Ellis, T. Proctor | ||||||||
DET
60-22
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 22 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | |
DRIVES755 CONT4.952 TOUCHES58.748 | ||||||||
| 20 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -10 | |
CONT994 TOUCHES4524 DEFL1.512 | ||||||||
| 25 | 22 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +1 | |
DRIVES1999+ TOUCHES9799+ CONT6.779 | ||||||||
| 22 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +8 | |
DEFL3.592 CONT4.745 TOUCHES44.115 | ||||||||
| 21 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -8 | |
| 9 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +12 | |
| 14 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +15 | |
| Team | 66 | 17 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 7 | ||
| DNP: P. Reed, T. Smith, R. Holland II, J. Green, C. Lanier | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
51
FG %
49
15
Ast
18
Playoff series
Series tied 2-2
CLE101@DET111CLE97@DET107DET109@CLE116DET103@CLE112CLE@DETtodayDET@CLEupcomingCLE@DETupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DET -4.5
Half-pt below key 5
Total
210.5
Defensive · -15.5 vs avg
Moneyline
CLE+14241%DET-17063%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
4.5
0.0 since open
Total
210.5
0.0 since open
Live · top performers so far
6:55 - 3rdRecent swing: 7pp · 3rd Quarter · 7:29
Dean Wade de · fensive rebound
CLEJ. Harden
GLeading · 6:55 - 3rd · 24 min
19 PTS · 2 REB · 3 AST
On pace: 38 PTS · 4 REB · 6 AST
DETC. Cunningham
GLeading · 6:55 - 3rd · 25 min
22 PTS · 2 REB · 5 AST
On pace: 42 PTS · 4 REB · 10 AST
How it's going
DET lead CLE 66-64 (6:55 - 3rd). C. Cunningham led with 22 PTS, 2 REB, 5 AST.
Win probability
DET vs CLE
Starters vs bench
production by unitCLEstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
46 PTS · 17 REB · 11 AST
GS 37
Bench(4)
18 PTS · 4 REB · 4 AST
GS 15
DETstarters 77% of ptsStarters(5)
51 PTS · 15 REB · 16 AST
GS 45
Bench(4)
15 PTS · 2 REB · 2 AST
GS 14
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactTobias Harris · blocks Evan Mobley 's 7-foot layup
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 27 | 25 | 12 | 64 |
| DET | 29 | 31 | 6 | 66 |
Period scoring
CLE won 1 · DET won 2
Q1
Strus 6
Cunningham 10
Q2
Harden 9
Cunningham 10
Q3
Allen 4
Duren 4
Shooting comparison
51%
22-43
FG
49%
25-51
44%
8-18
3PT
43%
6-14
86%
12-14
FT
91%
10-11
Play-by-play · 252 plays
Dean Wade defensive rebound
CLE 61·DET 66
−0.7pp
Isaiah Stewart misses tip shot
CLE 61·DET 66
−2pp
Isaiah Stewart offensive rebound
CLE 61·DET 66
+2pp
Caris LeVert misses 13-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
CLE 61·DET 66
−6pp
Dennis Schroder enters the game for Donovan Mitchell
·
CLE 61·DET 66
Max Strus enters the game for Evan Mobley
·
CLE 61·DET 66
James Harden personal foul
CLE 61·DET 66
+4pp
Cade Cunningham defensive rebound
CLE 61·DET 66
+0.7pp
Tobias Harris blocks Evan Mobley 's 7-foot layupBIG MOMENT
·
CLE 61·DET 66
+7pp
Isaiah Stewart enters the game for Jalen Duren
·
CLE 61·DET 66
Daniss Jenkins personal foul
CLE 61·DET 66
−5pp
Cade Cunningham bad pass turnover (Dean Wade steals)
·
CLE 61·DET 66
−3pp
Jarrett Allen makes 3-foot alley oop dunk (Evan Mobley assists)
·
CLE 61·DET 66
−3pp
Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 59·DET 66
−2pp
Cade Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 59·DET 65
+0.6pp
Donovan Mitchell shooting foul
CLE 59·DET 64
+4pp
shot clock turnover
CLE 59·DET 64
+3pp
Cavaliers offensive team rebound
CLE 59·DET 64
−2pp
Donovan Mitchell misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
CLE 59·DET 64
+2pp
Caris LeVert enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
CLE 59·DET 64
Jalen Duren makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 59·DET 64
−2pp
Jalen Duren makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 59·DET 63
+0.7pp
Evan Mobley shooting foul
CLE 59·DET 62
+4pp
James Harden makes 27-foot three pointer (Jarrett Allen assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 59·DET 62
−5pp
Cade Cunningham traveling turnover
CLE 56·DET 62
−3pp
Jarrett Allen traveling turnover
CLE 56·DET 62
+3pp
Jalen Duren makes 4-foot dunk (Cade Cunningham assists)
·
CLE 56·DET 62
+2pp
Donovan Mitchell personal foul
CLE 56·DET 60
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 56·DET 60
+2pp
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 55·DET 60
−0.6pp
Team stats
CLE
Away
Stat
DET
Home
22-43
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
25-51
51
FG %
49
8-18
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-14
12-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
10-11
15
Assists
18
11
Turnovers
7
Betting line
DET -4.5·O/U 210.5·CLE +142/DET -170
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
Rebounds
Assists
Blocks
Steals
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
60.9%
ensemble · DET favored
Elo Static
62.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
63.2%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
57.7%
P(DET win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
2.38 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
84% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
