MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

TOP 8TH+2BOS

PHI

20-22

BOS

17-24

Live · model leanTop 8thPolls every 30s

60.1%

BOS wins · current

Pre-game: 53.3% PHI

PHI 1 · 3 BOS

BOS +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 8

away leadsBOS leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingBOSBottom 6th Inning · 1-3
+27pp→ 85% WP
Rafaela · homered to left center (376 feet), Abreu scored.
ClutchPHITop 6th Inning · 1-1
+7pp→ 47% WP
Sosa · singled to right.
SwingPHITop 4th Inning · 1-1
+6pp→ 34% WP
Garc · ía struck out looking.
SwingPHITop 3rd Inning · 1-1
+9pp→ 31% WP
Crawford · homered to center (403 feet).
SwingBOSBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 78% WP
Story · homered to center (424 feet).

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 10.43

A. Painter

1-4 · 6.89 ERA

S. Gray

3-1 · 3.54 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

BOS no-vig %

55.1%

open 56.3% · -1.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.8%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
46.7%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.8%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.8%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.18 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

85% confidence

Win prob · home

99.0%

+52.3ppvs pre-game · BOS favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Why we like PHI.

PHI's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. The signals lean the same way.

+7.4

pp edge · PHI

+2.07

CLV pp · steam

2.9u · large

on PHI

54.1%

±6.1pp band

2.9u large — +6pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+8.2pp

+0.8pp post-cal

Kelly

11.6%

2.9% sized

Decimal

2.08

+6.0pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 7.4pp · PHI over BOS

▲
Model confidence90% conf
PHI clears the model's lock threshold.
+2.5pp
▲
Venue split70% conf
PHI's venue form is 31.8pp stronger in the recent sample.
+2.5pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
PHI is 3-2 over its last 5; BOS is 1-4.
+1.3pp
▲
Line steam68% conf
The market moved 1.2pp toward PHI since open.
+0.8pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
PHI has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.3pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

45.8%

Market steamed in our direction

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+1.5pp

best edge · PHI · DraftKings

PHI

★ best

-123DraftKings

edge +1.5pp · implied 51.7%

BOS

no live price

Book	PHI	BOS	Best edge
DraftKings	-123★	-106	+1.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

BOS vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 57 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.4± 2.5low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.1± 3.7low
Payton TolleBOS
6.7± 4.6low

Hits

Brandon MarshPHI
1.6± 1.1high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.1high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
1.0± 1.0high

Total bases

Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.7± 2.8high
Bryce HarperPHI
2.2± 3.3high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.0± 1.5high

RBIs

Alec BohmPHI
0.7± 1.2high
Bryson StottPHI
0.7± 1.1high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.6± 3.3low
Brayan BelloBOS
3.5± 3.1low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
3.5± 3.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

Wed, May 13

PHI★

Phillies

25-22

vs53.3%PHI

BOS

Red Sox

17-29

PHI 53.3%win prob46.7% BOS

PHI 1529 · BOS 1483Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
K. Schwarber★DH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
SPRINT25.818
B. Harper★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
SPRINT2744
A. Garcia★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Marsh★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Bohm★3B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.632
B. Stott★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J.T. Realmuto★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Crawford★CF	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
SPRINT29.798
E. Sosa★2B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT28.278
Team	3-25	25	1	3	1	1	1	7

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-2

0-3

0-3

0-3

1-3

0-3

0-3

1-3

1-2

Team

3-25

	Pitching
A. Painter★SP	5.0	4	1	1	0	4	1
T. BanksRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	0
O. KerkeringRP	0.1	2	1	1	0	0	1
B. KellerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	0
Team	7.0	7	3	3	0	8	2

Pitching

Player

5.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

7.0

	Batting
J. Duran★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
SPRINT29.294
M. Gasper★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Abreu★RF	3-3	3	1	3	0	0	0	0
SPRINT2872
W. Contreras★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Yoshida★DH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Story★SS	2-3	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
SPRINT27.969
M. Mayer★2B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.560
C. Wong★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Durbin★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. RafaelaCF	1-1	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
SPRINT28.790
Team	7-26	26	3	7	3	2	0	8

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI