MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

BOT 5TH+1DET

DET

19-23

NYM

16-25

Live · model leanBot 5thPolls every 30s

56.0%

DET wins · current

Pre-game: 50.3% DET

DET 2 · 1 NYM

DET +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsNYM leads

Key moments · live

newest first

ClutchNYMBottom 5th Inning · 2-1
+9pp→ 45% WP
Ewing · walked.
ClutchNYMTop 5th Inning · 2-1
+9pp→ 38% WP
Keith · grounded into double play, first to shortstop to first, Dingler out at second.
Lead flipNYMBottom 3rd Inning · 2-1
+11pp→ 56% WP
Benge · singled to right, Torrens to third.
SwingNYMTop 3rd Inning · 2-1
+7pp→ 38% WP
Greene · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Keith out at second.
SwingDETTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+10pp→ 74% WP
Greene · singled to center, McGonigle scored and Dingler scored.

Citi Field · Queens, New York

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.84

F. Valdez

2-2 · 4.57 ERA

C. Scott

0-0 · 3.27 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYM spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

NYM no-vig %

48.7%

open 48.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
49.7%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.3%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.2%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.90 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

71% confidence

Win prob · home

19.9%

-29.8ppvs pre-game · DET favored

Leverage

medium

1-point game · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.7pp

best edge · NYM · DraftKings

DET

no live price

NYM

★ best

+104DraftKings

edge +3.7pp · implied 46.0%

Book	DET	NYM	Best edge
DraftKings	-135	+104★	+3.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

NYM vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

116

projections · 51 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
7.1± 2.4low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
5.6± 3.0low
Christian ScottNYM
5.0± 4.9low

Hits

Riley GreeneDET
1.3± 0.8high
Colt KeithDET
0.9± 0.9high
Kevin McGonigleDET
0.9± 0.8high

Total bases

Riley GreeneDET
1.9± 1.1high
Mark VientosNYM
1.9± 2.7high
Dillon DinglerDET
1.7± 1.7high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
0.8± 1.0high
Mark VientosNYM
0.8± 1.3high
Matt VierlingDET
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Framber ValdezDET
2.7± 4.1low
Jack FlahertyDET
2.7± 2.7low
David PetersonNYM
2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

Wed, May 13

DET★

Tigers

20-25

vs50.3%DET

NYM

Mets

17-27

DET 50.3%win prob49.7% NYM

DET 1479 · NYM 1453Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
K. McGonigle★SS	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
SPRINT28.278
D. Dingler★C	2-3	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.765
C. Keith★3B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT28.381
R. Greene★LF	2-3	3	0	2	2	0	0	0
SPRINT2744
M. Vierling★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. Perez★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Torkelson★1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
Z. McKinstry★2B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT26.941
Z. Short★SS	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	7-20	20	2	7	2	0	2	5

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-2

2-3

1-3

2-3

0-3

0-2

0-1

1-2

0-1

Team

7-20

	Pitching
F. Valdez★SP	4.0	4	1	1	1	3	0
Team	4.0	4	1	1	1	3	0

Pitching

Player

F. Valdez★SP

4.0

Team

4.0

	Batting
C. Benge★RF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT28.586
B. Bichette★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Soto★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Vientos★1B	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.513
M. Semien★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Baty★RF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.735
T. Taylor★CF	0-2	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
SPRINT28.891
A.J. Ewing★CF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
L. Torrens★C	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.428
Team	4-16	16	1	4	1	0	1	3

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI