MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

TOP 6TH+3TEX

ARI

20-21

TEX

20-22

Live · model leanTop 6thPolls every 30s

68.9%

TEX wins · current

Pre-game: 57.0% TEX

ARI 0 · 3 TEX

TEX +3

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6

away leadsTEX leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingTEXBottom 5th Inning · 0-3
+26pp→ 90% WP
Burger · homered to right (370 feet), Carter scored and Osuna scored.

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 10.69

R. Nelson

1-3 · 5.68 ERA

K. Rocker

1-4 · 5.01 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

TEX spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

TEX no-vig %

53.2%

open 53.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.2%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
57.0%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.8%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.9%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

76% confidence

Win prob · home

99.0%

+42.0ppvs pre-game · TEX favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Why we like TEX.

TEX's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Head to head is the main caution flag.

+6.8

pp edge · TEX

-0.60

CLV pp

1.8u · medium

on TEX

56.1%

±6.6pp band

1.84u medium — +3.5pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+5.9pp

-0.9pp post-cal

Kelly

7.4%

1.8% sized

Decimal

1.90

+3.5pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 6.8pp · TEX over ARI

▲
Model confidence90% conf
TEX clears the model's lock threshold.
+3.3pp
▲
Venue split66% conf
TEX's venue form is 25pp stronger in the recent sample.
+2.9pp
▲
Travel burden58% conf
ARI is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
+1.1pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
ARI has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.4pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-122

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

52.6%

Market faded the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.8pp

best edge · TEX · DraftKings

ARI

no live price

TEX

★ best

-111DraftKings

edge +6.8pp · implied 50.2%

Book	ARI	TEX	Best edge
DraftKings	-109	-111★	+6.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

TEX vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 62 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
7.1± 3.3low
Jack LeiterTEX
6.1± 3.5low
Michael SorokaARI
5.9± 3.9low

Hits

Josh JungTEX
1.3± 1.3high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.1± 1.1high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Ezequiel DuranTEX
1.9± 1.8high
Josh JungTEX
1.8± 2.0high
Ildemaro VargasARI
1.6± 1.5high

RBIs

Adrian Del CastilloARI
0.6± 0.8high
Ildemaro VargasARI
0.6± 0.8high
Ryan WaldschmidtARI
0.6± 1.8low

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
4.4± 3.9low
Ryne NelsonARI
3.0± 3.7low
Zac GallenARI
3.0± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

Wed, May 13

ARI

Diamondbacks

22-22

vs57.0%TEX

TEX★

Rangers

24-23

ARI 43.0%win prob57.0% TEX

TEX 1521 · ARI 1497Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
K. Marte★2B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
SPRINT26.225
C. Carroll★RF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
SPRINT29.496
G. Perdomo★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Arenado★3B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT25.29
I. Vargas★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Gurriel Jr.★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Del Castillo★DH	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
G. Moreno★C	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.428
R. Waldschmidt★CF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team	4-19	19	0	4	0	0	4	4

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-2

0-1

0-3

1-3

0-3

0-2

0-1

1-2

1-2

Team

4-19

	Pitching
R. Nelson★SP	5.0	3	3	3	0	6	1
Team	5.0	3	3	3	0	6	1

Pitching

Player

R. Nelson★SP

5.0

Team

5.0

	Batting
J. Pederson★DH	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.716
B. Nimmo★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
SPRINT28.278
C. Seager★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Jung★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Carter★CF	2-2	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT28.175
E. Duran★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. Osuna★LF	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT2872
J. Burger★1B	1-2	2	1	1	3	1	0	0
SPRINT2744
D. Jansen★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	3-18	18	3	3	3	1	0	6

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI