MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

TOP 5THTied

19-23

CHW

20-21

Live · model leanTop 5thPolls every 30s

51.7%

CHW wins · current

Pre-game: 54.2% CHW

KC 3 · 3 CHW

Tied

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsCHW leads

Key moments · live

newest first

ClutchKCTop 4th Inning · 3-3
+22pp→ 50% WP
Pasquantino · singled to center, Witt Jr. scored and Thomas scored.
ClutchKCTop 4th Inning · 0-3
+8pp→ 39% WP
Thomas · walked, Witt Jr. to second, Garcia to third.
SwingCHWTop 3rd Inning · 0-2
+8pp→ 74% WP
Collins · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Marte out at second.
SwingCHWBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+13pp→ 63% WP
Peters · doubled to right, Kelenic scored, Peters to third.

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.89

S. Lugo

1-2 · 3.21 ERA

N. Schultz

2-2 · 4.68 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

CHW no-vig %

48.3%

open 47.4% · +0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.4%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
54.2%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.4%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.6%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

71% confidence

Win prob · home

47.9%

-6.3ppvs pre-game · KC favored

Leverage

high

Tied · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Why we like CHW.

CHW's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. The signals lean the same way.

+5.2

pp edge · CHW

+1.23

CLV pp

1.1u · medium

on CHW

53.3%

±6.3pp band

1.06u medium — +2.1pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+4.3pp

-0.9pp post-cal

Kelly

4.2%

1.1% sized

Decimal

1.95

+2.1pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 5.2pp · CHW over KC

▲
Model confidence82% conf
CHW grades as a real model edge, not just noise.
+2.3pp
▲
Venue split64% conf
CHW's venue form is 12.9pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.6pp
▲
Line steam66% conf
The market moved 0.9pp toward CHW since open.
+0.8pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
CHW has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.5pp

Open price

+102

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

48.6%

Market came to the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

no live price

CHW

no live price

Book	KC	CHW	Best edge
DraftKings	+106	-138	+0.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

CHW vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 65 high confidence

Strikeouts

Davis MartinCHW
6.5± 3.1low
Kris BubicKC
5.9± 3.7low
Michael WachaKC
5.3± 2.1low

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.4± 1.1high
Chase MeidrothCHW
1.2± 0.5high
Maikel GarciaKC
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
2.5± 2.1high
Chase MeidrothCHW
1.9± 1.3high
Miguel VargasCHW
1.9± 2.5high

RBIs

Nick LoftinKC
0.8± 1.6medium
Colson MontgomeryCHW
0.7± 1.1high
Miguel VargasCHW
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Noah CameronKC
3.1± 2.3low
Noah SchultzCHW
2.6± 3.6low
Anthony KayCHW
2.4± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

Wed, May 13

Royals

20-25

vs54.2%CHW

CHW★

White Sox

25-21

KC 45.8%win prob54.2% CHW

CHW 1493 · KC 1488Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
M. Garcia★3B	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	2	1
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.★SS	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
SPRINT30.399+
L. Thomas★CF	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
SPRINT28.688
S. Perez★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Loftin★2B	0-1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
SPRINT2872
V. Pasquantino★1B	1-2	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
SPRINT25.411
S. Marte★RF	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
I. Collins★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Diaz★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	2-13	13	3	2	3	0	5	3

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-1

0-1

0-1

0-2

0-1

1-2

1-1

0-2

0-2

Team

2-13

	Pitching
S. Lugo★SP	4.0	6	3	3	1	4	0
Team	4.0	6	3	3	1	4	0

Pitching

Player

S. Lugo★SP

4.0

Team

4.0

	Batting
S. Antonacci★LF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT28.175
M. Murakami★1B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.148
M. Vargas★3B	1-1	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
SPRINT28.381
C. Montgomery★SS	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Meidroth★2B	0-1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
A. Benintendi★DH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Kelenic★RF	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. Peters★CF	1-2	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
SPRINT28.586
D. Romo★C	0-2	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team	6-18	18	3	6	3	0	1	4

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI