Starter edge
7.41 ERA
Lance McCullers Jr. vs Bryce Miller
Jr. owns the sharper run-prevention profile, giving HOU cleaner opening script tonight.
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Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
SEA
SEA
21-22
PregameWed, 8:10 PM EDT
HOU
HOU
16-27
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketDaikin Park · Houston, Texas
Probable starters
The mound matchup
B. Miller
vs
L. McCullers Jr.
2-3 · 7.41 ERA
Line movement
200 snapshots
HOU spread
+1.5
open PK · +1.5
Total
O/U 9.0
open O/U 9.0
HOU no-vig %
46.8%
open 46.8%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Bryce Miller
SP · #50
—
W-L
—
ERA
—
WHIP
—
K
—
IP
Home starter
Lance McCullers Jr.
SP · #43
2-3
W-L
7.41
ERA
1.50
WHIP
37
K
34.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsLADL(2-3)2.2 IP6 ER4 K
@BALW(2-2)6.0 IP3 ER9 K
vsNYYL(1-2)5.0 IP5 ER3 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 9
Money-130 / +108
Model edge
Win prob57% / 43%
LeanAway · 7pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesSEA leads series 2-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take SEA on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Projected lineups
Top of the order, top of mind.
Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.
SEA
- 1.J.P. CrawfordSS
- 2.J. RodriguezCF
- 3.J. Naylor1B
- 4.C. RaleighC
- 5.R. ArozarenaLF
- 6.L. RaleyRF
- 7.D. CanzoneDH
- 8.C. Young2B
- 9.L. Rivas3B
HOU
- 1.J. Altuve2B
- 2.Y. AlvarezDH
- 3.I. Paredes3B
- 4.C. Walker1B
- 5.Z. DezenzoLF
- 6.B. ShewmakeSS
- 7.B. MatthewsCF
- 8.Z. ColeRF
- 9.C. VazquezC
Scouting report · pre-game
HOU vs SEA.
HOU has dropped 4 straight; SEA is 5-5 over its last 10.
42.9%
model · HOU win prob
Recent form
- HOU4–6-1.6
- SEA5–5+0.6
Situational
- HOU2d rest
- SEA2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. HOU has 0 straight road games; SEA has 5.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
Players to watch
- Julio RodriguezSEA2.1total bases · ±1.9
Julio Rodriguez · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.3 vs season 1.7.
- Josh NaylorSEA1.7total bases · ±1.7
Josh Naylor · 1.7 TB · last-10 1.9 vs season 1.5.
- Randy ArozarenaSEA1.7total bases · ±2.7
Randy Arozarena · 1.7 TB · last-10 1.8 vs season 1.7.
Head-to-head · 0-6 · last 6
HOU is 0-6 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-04-12HOU @ SEA1–6
- 2026-04-12HOU @ SEA7–8
- 2026-04-13HOU @ SEA2–6
- 2026-05-11SEA @ HOU3–1
- 2026-05-12SEA @ HOU10–2
Line move
open +104→+104flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
42.9%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
42.9%
P(HOU win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
42.9%
P(HOU win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.8%
P(HOU win)
45%
weight
Disagreement
0.05 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
2 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
Player projections
HOU vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
121
projections · 58 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Emerson HancockSEA6.3± 4.9low
- Spencer ArrighettiHOU6.0± 3.9low
- Peter LambertHOU5.8± 3.1low
Hits
- Josh NaylorSEA1.2± 0.8high
- Randy ArozarenaSEA1.2± 1.3high
- Jose AltuveHOU1.1± 0.7high
Total bases
- Julio RodriguezSEA2.1± 1.9high
- Braden ShewmakeHOU1.9± 2.4low
- Josh NaylorSEA1.7± 1.7high
RBIs
- Luke RaleySEA0.9± 2.3high
- Zach ColeHOU0.7± 1.5low
- Dominic CanzoneSEA0.6± 1.6high
Earned runs
- Lance McCullers Jr.HOU4.0± 2.5low
- Luis CastilloSEA3.5± 3.5low
- Tatsuya ImaiHOU3.3± 3.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
The One modelLean
Wed, May 13SEA★
Mariners
22-26
vs57.1%SEA
HOU
Astros
15-32
SEA 57.1%win prob42.9% HOU
SEA 1508 · HOU 1435Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
