MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

BOT 5THTied

CHC

27-15

ATL

29-13

Live · model leanBot 5thPolls every 30s

53.2%

ATL wins · current

Pre-game: 57.9% ATL

CHC 1 · 1 ATL

Tied

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsATL leads

Key moments · live

newest first

Lead flipCHCTop 5th Inning · 1-1
+13pp→ 54% WP
Hoerner · singled to left, Kelly scored, Swanson to second.
ClutchCHCTop 5th Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 40% WP
Kelly · singled to right.
SwingATLBottom 4th Inning · 0-1
+13pp→ 71% WP
Baldwin · homered to center (402 feet).
ClutchCHCTop 4th Inning · 0-0
+6pp→ 47% WP
Ballesteros · lined out to right.

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 5.91

S. Imanaga

4-2 · 2.28 ERA

J. Ritchie

1-0 · 3.63 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

ATL no-vig %

43.7%

open 44.9% · -1.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.4%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
57.9%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.3%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.9%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

71% confidence

Win prob · home

59.1%

+1.2ppvs pre-game · ATL favored

Leverage

high

Tied · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Why we like ATL.

ATL's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Line steam is the main caution flag.

+11.9

pp edge · ATL

-1.20

CLV pp

4.3u · large

on ATL

57.0%

±5.5pp band

4.3u large — +8.9pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+11.0pp

-0.9pp post-cal

Kelly

17.2%

4.3% sized

Decimal

2.08

+8.9pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 11.9pp · ATL over CHC

▲
Model confidence90% conf
ATL clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▲
Venue split64% conf
ATL's venue form is 31.4pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.5pp
▲
Travel burden58% conf
CHC is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
+1.1pp
▼
Line steam68% conf
The market moved 1.2pp away from ATL since open.
-0.5pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
CHC has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.2pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Market faded the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.8pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

CHC

no live price

ATL

★ best

-124DraftKings

edge +5.8pp · implied 52.1%

Book	CHC	ATL	Best edge
DraftKings	-104	-124★	+5.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

ATL vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 65 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.0± 3.1low
Shota ImanagaCHC
6.6± 4.5low
Bryce ElderATL
5.9± 3.2low

Hits

Austin RileyATL
1.1± 0.8high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.1± 0.9high
Matt OlsonATL
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.7± 1.9high
Drake BaldwinATL
2.1± 2.3high
Austin RileyATL
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Matt OlsonATL
0.9± 0.6high
Michael BuschCHC
0.8± 1.5high
Austin RileyATL
0.7± 0.6high

Earned runs

Grant HolmesATL
2.5± 1.9low
Edward CabreraCHC
2.5± 2.3low
Jameson TaillonCHC
2.5± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

Wed, May 13

CHC

Cubs

27-19

vs57.9%ATL

ATL★

Braves

32-13

CHC 42.1%win prob57.9% ATL

ATL 1576 · CHC 1544Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
N. Hoerner★2B	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT28.278
M. Ballesteros★DH	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT24.53
A. Bregman★3B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT25.818
I. Happ★LF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
SPRINT27.662
S. Suzuki★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Busch★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Kelly★C	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.716
P. Crow-Armstrong★CF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. Swanson★SS	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	3-18	18	1	3	1	0	3	4

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-3

0-3

1-3

0-1

0-2

0-2

1-2

0-1

0-1

Team

3-18

	Pitching
S. Imanaga★SP	4.1	4	1	1	0	4	1
Team	4.1	4	1	1	0	4	1

Pitching

Player

S. Imanaga★SP

4.1

Team

4.1

	Batting
M. Dubon★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.428
D. Baldwin★C	1-2	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
SPRINT26.632
O. Albies★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Olson★1B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.513
A. Riley★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Harris II★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. Kim★SS	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Leon★C	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Azocar★RF	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team	4-15	15	1	4	1	1	0	4

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI