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Live · 9
  • MLBMid 1
    MIN 0@PIT 0
    -5.8ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    SD 0@WSH 0
    -5.5ppmedium
  • MLBMid 1
    TOR 0@BAL 0
    -5.6ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    KC 0@TEX 0
    -5.9ppmedium
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    LAA 0@TB 0
    -5.7ppmedium
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    BOS 0@CLE 0
    -6.0ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    MIA 0@NYM 0
    -5.5ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    MIL 0@HOU 0
    -4.8ppmedium
  • MLBTop 8
    DET 1@CHW 4
    +36.2pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+9ATL
ATL

ATL

71-83

10
1
DET

DET

85-69

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
33,554 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 10 · DET 1 (by 9)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL33000002210
DET0001000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 64-42
62%Last 30 · 327-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Sep 19·Final/SeriesATL wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves went into Detroit Tigers and beat them, 10–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Drake Baldwin

Drake Baldwin

C

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Spencer Torkelson

Spencer Torkelson

1B

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL71-83
10
1
DET85-69
ATL71-83·DET85-69
ATL

ATL

71-83

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
2-55220000
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-44211000
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
1-44212111
SPRINT26.838
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
2-44123110
SPRINT26.632
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
3-44132010
SPRINT27.354
H. KimH. Kim★SS
1-55112102
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-44000001
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
0-33000011
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
1-44110001
Team11-3737101110346
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ElderB. Elder★SP
7.0511061
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
1.0000000
H. StrattonH. StrattonRP
1.0000020
Team9.0511081
DET

DET

85-69

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.381
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
2-33020000
SPRINT25.18
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
0-33000000
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-44000002
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-33111102
SPRINT26.123
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-33000001
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
1-33010000
SPRINT27.251
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0-33000000
SPRINT26.941
J. RogersJ. Rogers★C
0-33000000
J. JungJ. Jung3B
0-11000001
T. SweeneyT. SweeneySS
0-11000001
Team5-3131151108
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MortonC. Morton★SP
1.1566221
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0.1000000
SPRINT26.941
R. MonteroR. MonteroRP
1.2100110
C. PaddackC. PaddackSP
5.0322021
P. SewaldP. SewaldRP
0.2222111
Team9.0111010463

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • B. Elder
    98 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      41%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·83.8 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      21%·93.7 mph·23% whiff
    • CH
      9%·87.0 mph·25% whiff
  • T. Kinley
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      73%·88.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      18%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Stratton
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • FF
      45%·97.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      36%·95.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      18%·87.5 mph·50% whiff

DET

  • C. Paddack
    68 pitches·19% CSW
    • CU
      28%·78.4 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      25%·84.7 mph·27% whiff
    • FF
      24%·93.2 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      12%·87.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      12%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Morton
    45 pitches·24% CSW
    • CU
      33%·82.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·89.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      9%·86.4 mph·33% whiff
  • P. Sewald
    28 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      57%·91.1 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      43%·82.7 mph·20% whiff
  • R. Montero
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • FS
      76%·86.6 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      10%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·83.1 mph·— whiff
  • Z. McKinstry
    2 pitches·0% CSW
    • EP
      100%·36.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

5

10

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 3-0

Sep 19ATLATL10@DETDET1today
Sep 20ATLATL6@DETDET5
Sep 21ATLATL6@DETDET2

Season series

ATL leads series 1-0

Sep 19ATLATL10@DETDET1today
Sep 20ATLATL6@DETDET5
Sep 21ATLATL6@DETDET2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 10pp · Top 1st Inning

ATLATL
D. Baldwin

D. Baldwin

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

B. Elder

B. Elder

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 5 H

DETDET
S. Torkelson

S. Torkelson

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

C. Paddack

C. Paddack

SP

Top reliever

5.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 3 H

How it ended

ATL beat DET 10-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

DET vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+10pp→ 76% WP

Albies · singled to left, Acuña Jr. scored and Olson scored, Baldwin to second.

ATLTop 2nd Inning · 6-0
+9pp→ 91% WP

Acu · ña Jr. homered to right center (386 feet), Olson scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL33000002210
DET0001000001

Period scoring

ATL won 4 · DET won 1

3
0

Inn 1

Albies 2

3
0

Inn 2

Acu 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Torkelson 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Kim 2

2
0

Inn 9

Baldwin 2

ATL
DET

Play-by-play · 549 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATL 10·DET 1

  2. B9

    ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  3. B9

    Greene grounded out to first.

    ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  7. B9

    Hunter Stratton pitches to Riley Greene

    ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  8. B9

    ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  9. B9

    Sweeney struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  13. B9

    Hunter Stratton pitches to Trey Sweeney

    ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  14. B9

    ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  15. B9

    Jung struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  21. B9

    Hunter Stratton pitches to Jace Jung

    ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  22. B9

    Stratton relieved Kinley

    ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  23. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ATL 10·DET 1

  24. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ATL 10·DET 1

  25. T9

    ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  26. T9

    Kim grounded into fielder's choice to third, Albies out at second.

    · ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  29. T9

    Zach McKinstry pitches to Ha-Seong Kim

    · ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

  30. T9

    Pitching Change: Zach McKinstry replaces Paul Sewald, batting 8th.

    ·

    ATL 10·DET 1

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

DET

Home

10

Runs

1

11

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

22

TB

10

3

HR

1

4

BB

0

6

K

8

14

LOB

6

Player projections

DET vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 70 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Dominic SmithATL
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Dominic SmithATL
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low
  • Keider MonteroDET
    2.5± 1.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.7%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    55.5%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.8%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.8%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 13 players in cohort
  • Parker MeadowsDET · CF
    SPRINT28.381

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 14, 25sim 99
    174
    11(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 97
    305
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 97
    265
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 97
    261
    29(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 96
    156
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 96
    50
    13(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs