MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

MIN

27-31

PregameSat, 4:05 PM EDT

PIT

30-28

ATS/PIT -1.5O/U/8ML/PIT-144

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

98 total idx

PNC Park run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

6-4

PIT +0.9 vs MIN -1.1 margin

PIT brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 970 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

PIT no-vig %

56.4%

open 56.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Bailey Ober

SP · #17

6-2

W-L

3.92

ERA

1.10

WHIP

62.0

Last 3 starts

@BOSW(6-2)5.0 IP4 ER3 K

vsMILW(5-2)5.0 IP3 ER1 K

vsMIAW(4-2)9.0 IP0 ER7 K

Home starter

Mitch Keller

SP · #23

5-2

W-L

3.64

ERA

1.07

WHIP

64.1

Last 3 starts

@TORW(5-2)6.0 IP1 ER5 K

@STL-5.2 IP4 ER3 K

vsCOLL(4-2)5.2 IP6 ER3 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 8

Money+119 / -144

Model edge

Win prob49% / 51%

LeanTossup

ConfidenceTossup

Head to head

SeriesPIT leads series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Pick a side.

Even matchup per the model — pick a side and we'll send you to the book.

+119Bet MIN ML↗+119Bet MIN ML↗

-144Bet PIT ML↗-144Bet PIT ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 8Bet the total↗O/U 8Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

PIT vs MIN.

PIT is 6-4 recently; MIN is 5-5.

50.7%

model · PIT win prob

Recent form

PIT6–4+0.9
MIN5–5-1.1

Situational

PIT1d restB2B
MIN1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. PIT has 0 straight road games; MIN has 8.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.2 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.2pp

Players to watch

Byron BuxtonMIN
2.5total bases · ±2.7
Byron Buxton · 2.5 TB · last-10 2.5 vs season 2.4.
Brandon LowePIT
2.1total bases · ±1.6
Brandon Lowe · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.1 vs season 2.1.
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.9total bases · ±1.9
Bryan Reynolds · 1.9 TB · last-10 2.2 vs season 1.5.

Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1

PIT is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-05-29MIN @ PIT5–6

Line move

open -143→-144flat

The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.9%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
52.5%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.8%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.5%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.07

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.6%

Line barely moved

Player projections

PIT vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts