MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3ATH

CIN

74-75

ATH

70-80

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

8,778 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.9%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
55.0%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.3%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.1%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATH vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.5± 3.8low
Luis SeverinoATH
5.5± 3.7low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
4.8± 2.0low

Hits

Blake DunnCIN
1.3± 1.1medium
Sal StewartCIN
1.3± 1.4high
Nick KurtzATH
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Nathaniel LoweCIN
2.2± 1.7high
Sal StewartCIN
2.2± 2.7high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.8± 2.4high

RBIs

Nick KurtzATH
0.8± 1.5high
Nathaniel LoweCIN
0.8± 1.0high
Elly De La CruzCIN
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Chris PaddackCIN
3.5± 3.4low
Nick LodoloCIN
3.3± 2.3low
Brady SingerCIN
3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

CIN 4 · ATH 7 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATH +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4
ATH	0	0	0	2	2	1	2	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
T. Friedl★CF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Marte★RF	2-4	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
SPRINT28.992
E. De La Cruz★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Stewart★1B	1-4	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
SPRINT26.530
G. Lux★LF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
W. Benson★RF	1-2	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
SPRINT2872
K. Hayes★3B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Trevino★C	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT23.40
M. McLain★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. HaysLF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	7-33	33	4	7	4	3	3	3

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-4

2-4

0-4

1-4

1-3

1-2

0-4

2-4

0-3

0-1

Team

7-33

	Pitching
N. Lodolo★SP	5.1	8	5	5	0	5	3
T. SantillanRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0
Z. MaxwellUN	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	1
S. BarlowRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	8.0	10	7	7	1	7	4

Pitching

Player

5.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

	Batting
S. Langeliers★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Wilson★SS	1-3	3	2	1	1	1	0	0
SPRINT27.148
N. Kurtz★1B	1-3	3	2	1	2	1	1	0
SPRINT26.632
B. Rooker★DH	1-4	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
SPRINT27.148
C. Thomas★RF	3-4	4	2	3	1	1	0	0
D. Hernaiz★SS	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Harris★3B	3-3	3	0	3	1	0	0	0
W. MacIver★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. Schuemann★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CortesRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. ButlerRF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1

Team	10-33	33	7	10	7	4	1	7

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI