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  • MLBBot 6
    MIN 7@PIT 8
    +36.4ppmedium
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    TOR 2@BAL 1
    -43.3pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    KC 4@TEX 3
    -43.2ppmedium
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    BOS 2@CLE 1
    -52.7ppmedium
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    LAA 6@TB 3
    -71.5pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    MIA 1@NYM 4
    +49.6pplow
  • MLBEnd 7
    SD 3@WSH 7
    +51.1pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    MIL 2@HOU 6
    +58.9pplow
  • WNBA5:58 - 1st
    LA 8@CON 11
    +13.0ppmedium
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1ATL
ATL

ATL

72-83

6
5
DET

DET

85-70

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
38,079 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 6 · DET 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL0030000126
DET1010012005

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Sep 20·Final/SeriesATL wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves went into Detroit Tigers and beat them, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Nacho Alvarez Jr.

Nacho Alvarez Jr.

SS

3.000OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Zach McKinstry

Zach McKinstry

2B

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL72-83
6
5
DET85-70
ATL72-83·DET85-70
ATL

ATL

72-83

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
1-44011011
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
0-33000021
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
0-33100021
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
1-44112101
SPRINT26.632
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
1-44110000
SPRINT27.354
H. KimH. Kim★SS
1-44110000
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
0-33000011
S. LeonS. Leon★C
0-44000001
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
3-44233200
Team7-3333676366
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. WentzJ. Wentz★RP
5.0622270
H. StrattonH. StrattonRP
1.0111001
D. LeeD. LeeRP
0.2111020
P. JohnsonP. JohnsonRP
0.1111011
D. DoddD. DoddRP
1.0000010
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0000000
Team9.09552112
DET

DET

85-70

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. JonesJ. Jones★DH
3-44230001
SPRINT28.278
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
3-55130001
SPRINT25.18
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-33001003
SPRINT27.969
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
2-33123110
SPRINT26.123
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-44000002
A. IbanezA. Ibanez★2B
0-22000001
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-33000012
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
0-44000001
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
0-33000000
K. CarpenterK. CarpenterRF
0-11000000
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry2B
1-22111100
SPRINT26.941
J. JungJ. Jung3B
0-11000000
Team9-35355952211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. MonteroK. Montero★SP
3.0233422
T. KahnleT. KahnleRP
1.2000000
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
1.0000000
T. MeltonT. MeltonSP
1.1000000
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
1.0111121
W. VestW. VestRP
0.2422020
R. MonteroR. MonteroRP
0.1000100
Team9.0766663

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • J. Wentz
    84 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      37%·93.8 mph·37% whiff
    • CU
      25%·79.3 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      20%·84.7 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      18%·86.4 mph·14% whiff
  • D. Lee
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • SL
      47%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      42%·84.9 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      11%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Johnson
    13 pitches·8% CSW
    • CU
      69%·85.0 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      31%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      42%·89.0 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      8%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Stratton
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      50%·87.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      25%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Dodd
    6 pitches·50% CSW
    • FC
      50%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·94.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      17%·88.4 mph·0% whiff

DET

  • K. Montero
    69 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      49%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·84.1 mph·60% whiff
    • KC
      14%·79.5 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      13%·87.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      6%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Vest
    25 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      56%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      32%·88.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      12%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Finnegan
    24 pitches·42% CSW
    • FS
      75%·88.3 mph·56% whiff
    • FF
      25%·96.1 mph·— whiff
  • T. Melton
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      52%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      19%·78.6 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      19%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      10%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Kahnle
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • CH
      100%·86.6 mph·11% whiff
  • R. Montero
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FS
      56%·85.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      44%·93.8 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Holton
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      57%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      29%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·86.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

9

6

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 3-0

Sep 19ATLATL10@DETDET1
Sep 20ATLATL6@DETDET5today
Sep 21ATLATL6@DETDET2

Season series

ATL leads series 2-0

Sep 19ATLATL10@DETDET1
Sep 20ATLATL6@DETDET5today
Sep 21ATLATL6@DETDET2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 36pp · Top 9th Inning

ATLATL
N. Alvarez Jr.

N. Alvarez Jr.

SS

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.000 OPS

J. Wentz

J. Wentz

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

DETDET
Z. McKinstry

Z. McKinstry

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

K. Montero

K. Montero

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

How it ended

ATL beat DET 6-5. Profar's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (36pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

DET vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLTop 3rd Inning · 3-1
+22pp→ 62% WP

Baldwin · homered to right center (416 feet), Acuña Jr. scored.

DETBottom 7th Inning · 3-5
+31pp→ 89% WP

Torkelson · homered to left (436 feet), Jones scored.

ATLTop 9th Inning · 6-5
+36pp→ 82% WP

Profar · singled to right, Kim scored, Profar to second, Alvarez Jr. to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL0030000126
DET1010012005

Period scoring

ATL won 3 · DET won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Torkelson 1

0
0

Inn 2

3
1

Inn 3

Baldwin 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

McKinstry 1

0
2

Inn 7

Torkelson 2

1
0

Inn 8

Jr. 1

2
0

Inn 9

Jr. 1

ATL
DET

Play-by-play · 603 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATL 6·DET 5

  2. B9

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

  3. B9

    Torres lined out to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

    −6pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

  6. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Gleyber Torres

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

  7. B9

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

  8. B9

    Carpenter lined out to first.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

    −8pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

  13. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Kerry Carpenter

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

  14. B9

    Carpenter hit for Jones

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

  15. B9

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

  16. B9

    Jung popped out to second.

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

    −3pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

  18. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

  23. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Jace Jung

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

  24. B9

    Iglesias relieved Dodd

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

  25. B9

    Jung hit for Báez

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ATL 6·DET 5

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ATL 6·DET 5

  28. T9

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

  29. T9

    Acuña Jr. flied out to right.

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 5

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

DET

Home

6

Runs

5

7

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

16

TB

15

3

HR

2

6

BB

2

6

K

11

12

LOB

11

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 25, 25sim 98
    305
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 97
    174
    11(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 96
    1510
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 8, 25sim 95
    72
    5(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 95
    156
    6(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 94
    257
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 12 players in cohort
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

DET vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 70 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Dominic SmithATL
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Dominic SmithATL
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low
  • Keider MonteroDET
    2.5± 1.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.2%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    53.6%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.1%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.0%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.