MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

LAA

22-36

PregameSat, 4:10 PM EDT

35-19

ATS/TB -1.5O/U/7ML/TB-156

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

96 total idx

Tropicana Field run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

6-4

TB +0.2 vs LAA 0.0 margin

TB brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 970 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

Line movement

200 snapshots

TB spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.5 · -0.5

TB no-vig %

58.3%

open 60.3% · -2.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Reid Detmers

SP · #48

1-5

W-L

4.57

ERA

1.14

WHIP

63.0

Last 3 starts

vsTEX-8.0 IP1 ER14 K

vsATHL(1-5)5.2 IP8 ER8 K

@CLEL(1-4)5.2 IP2 ER6 K

Home starter

Drew Rasmussen

SP · #57

4-1

W-L

2.78

ERA

0.98

WHIP

55.0

Last 3 starts

@NYY-7.0 IP0 ER6 K

vsMIAW(4-1)5.1 IP2 ER2 K

@TORW(3-1)6.0 IP3 ER6 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 7

Money+129 / -156

Model edge

Win prob23% / 77%

LeanHome · 27pp

Confidence★ Lock

Head to head

SeriesTB leads series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take TB on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-156Bet TB ML↗-156Bet TB ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 7Bet the total↗O/U 7Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

TB vs LAA.

TB is 6-4 recently; LAA is 5-5.

77.1%

model · TB win prob

Recent form

TB6–4+0.2
LAA5–5+0.0

Situational

TB1d restB2B
LAA1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. TB has 0 straight road games; LAA has 4.

Model angle

+14.3ppon TB

TB's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Line steam is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.3pp
▲Model confidence+1.5pp
▲Venue split+1.5pp

Players to watch

Yandy DiazTB
2.4total bases · ±2.3
Yandy Diaz · 2.4 TB · last-10 2.7 vs season 1.9.
Zach NetoLAA
2.1total bases · ±2.6
Zach Neto · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.4 vs season 1.7.
Junior CamineroTB
1.9total bases · ±1.6
Junior Caminero · 1.9 TB · last-10 2 vs season 1.8.

Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1

TB is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-05-29LAA @ TB5–8

Line move

open -171→-156toward LAA

The market has moved 2.2pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

78.5%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
72.5%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
74.7%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
73.9%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.91 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like TB.

TB's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Line steam is the main caution flag.

+14.3

pp edge · TB

-2.07

CLV pp · steam

5.0u · large

on TB

77.1%

±4.7pp band

5u large — +16.2pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+18.8pp

+4.6pp post-cal

Kelly

41.4%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.64

+16.2pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 14.3pp · TB over LAA

▲
Model confidence90% conf
TB clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▲
Venue split64% conf
TB's venue form is 55.7pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.5pp
▲
Travel burden58% conf
LAA is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
+1.1pp
▼
Line steam72% conf
The market moved 2.1pp away from TB since open.
-0.8pp
▼
Recent form70% conf
LAA's recent form is stronger over the last 5.
-0.8pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
TB has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.6pp

Open price

-171

Close price

-156

Open no-vig

60.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Market faded the model hard

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+18.8pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

LAA

no live price

★ best

-156DraftKings

edge +18.8pp · implied 58.3%

Book	LAA	TB	Best edge
DraftKings	+129	-156★	+18.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TB vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts