MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

BOS

23-33

PregameSat, 4:10 PM EDT

CLE

34-25

ATS/CLE -1.5O/U/6.5ML/CLE-132

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

4-6

BOS +0.2 vs CLE -0.5 margin

BOS brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 970 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

CLE no-vig %

54.3%

open 56.3% · -2.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Sonny Gray

SP · #54

5-1

W-L

3.27

ERA

1.20

WHIP

44.0

Last 3 starts

vsMIN-4.0 IP3 ER4 K

@KCW(5-1)6.0 IP1 ER9 K

vsPHIW(4-1)6.0 IP1 ER6 K

Home starter

Parker Messick

SP · #77

6-1

W-L

2.24

ERA

1.04

WHIP

64.1

Last 3 starts

@PHIW(6-1)5.2 IP0 ER6 K

@DET-5.0 IP2 ER6 K

vsLAAW(5-1)6.2 IP2 ER7 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 6.5

Money+109 / -132

Model edge

Win prob35% / 65%

LeanHome · 15pp

Confidence★ Lock

Head to head

SeriesCLE leads series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take CLE on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-132Bet CLE ML↗-132Bet CLE ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 6.5Bet the total↗O/U 6.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

CLE vs BOS.

CLE is 7-3 recently; BOS is 4-6.

65.4%

model · CLE win prob

Recent form

CLE7–3-0.5
BOS4–6+0.2

Situational

CLE1d restB2B
BOS1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. CLE has 0 straight road games; BOS has 1.

Model angle

+9.0ppon CLE

CLE's edge is mostly model confidence plus recent form. Line steam is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.1pp
▲Model confidence+1.5pp
▼Line steam-0.8pp

Players to watch

Jarren DuranBOS
2.5total bases · ±2.9
Jarren Duran · 2.5 TB · last-10 3.1 vs season 1.6.
Willson ContrerasBOS
2.4total bases · ±1.5
Willson Contreras · 2.4 TB · last-10 2.7 vs season 1.8.
Travis BazzanaCLE
2.1total bases · ±2.0
Travis Bazzana · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.4 vs season 1.6.

Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1

CLE is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-05-29BOS @ CLE3–4

Line move

open -143→-132toward BOS

The market has moved 2pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.5%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
63.3%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.6%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.3%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.94 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like CLE.

CLE's edge is mostly model confidence plus recent form. Line steam is the main caution flag.

+9.0

pp edge · CLE

-1.99

CLV pp · steam

4.9u · large

on CLE

65.4%

±5.0pp band

4.94u large — +8.5pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+11.1pp

+2.1pp post-cal

Kelly

19.8%

4.9% sized

Decimal

1.76

+8.5pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 9.0pp · CLE over BOS

▲
Model confidence90% conf
CLE clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▼
Line steam72% conf
The market moved 2pp away from CLE since open.
-0.8pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
CLE is 3-2 over its last 5; BOS is 1-4.
+0.8pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
CLE has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.2pp

Open price

-143

Close price

-132

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Market faded the model hard

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.1pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

BOS

no live price

CLE

★ best

-132DraftKings

edge +11.1pp · implied 54.3%

Book	BOS	CLE	Best edge
DraftKings	+109	-132★	+11.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CLE vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts