MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

TOR

29-29

PregameSat, 4:05 PM EDT

BAL

26-32

ATS/TOR -1.5O/U/7.5ML/TOR-126

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

97 total idx

Oriole Park at Camden Yards run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

5-5

BAL +1.4 vs TOR +1.1 margin

BAL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 970 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.5 · -1.0

BAL no-vig %

46.7%

open 45.8% · +0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Trey Yesavage

SP · #39

2-2

W-L

2.25

ERA

1.06

WHIP

32.0

Last 3 starts

vsMIAL(2-2)6.2 IP5 ER6 K

@NYYW(2-1)6.0 IP0 ER8 K

@DET-6.0 IP2 ER6 K

Home starter

Brandon Young

SP · #63

3-1

W-L

3.47

ERA

1.40

WHIP

36.1

Last 3 starts

vsDET-6.2 IP0 ER4 K

@WSH-3.2 IP2 ER3 K

vsNYY-5.1 IP2 ER5 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 7.5

Money-126 / +105

Model edge

Win prob61% / 39%

LeanAway · 11pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesTOR leads series 2-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take TOR on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-126Bet TOR ML↗-126Bet TOR ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 7.5Bet the total↗O/U 7.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

BAL vs TOR.

BAL is 5-5 recently; TOR is 8-2.

38.9%

model · BAL win prob

Recent form

BAL5–5+1.4
TOR8–2+1.1

Situational

BAL1d restB2B
TOR1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. BAL has 0 straight road games; TOR has 2.

Model angle

+3.2ppon BAL

BAL's edge is mostly travel burden plus line steam. Head to head is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.3pp
▼Head to head-0.6pp
▼Model confidence-0.5pp

Players to watch

Ernie ClementTOR
2.1total bases · ±2.0
Ernie Clement · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.3 vs season 1.7.
Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.9total bases · ±2.7
Gunnar Henderson · 1.9 TB · last-10 2 vs season 1.8.
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.8total bases · ±1.9
Pete Alonso · 1.8 TB · last-10 1.9 vs season 1.6.

Head-to-head · 0-2 · last 2

BAL is 0-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-05-28TOR @ BAL2–1
2026-05-29TOR @ BAL6–5

Line move

open +109→+105toward BAL

The market has moved 0.9pp toward the home side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
49.8%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.4%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.5%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.87 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like BAL.

BAL's edge is mostly travel burden plus line steam. Head to head is the main caution flag.

+3.2

pp edge · BAL

+0.90

CLV pp

Pass

38.9%

±4.9pp band

Pass — model probability is at or below the coin flip line.

Edge

-7.8pp

-10.9pp post-cal

Kelly

—

no stake

Decimal

2.05

-9.9pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 3.2pp · BAL over TOR

▼
Head to head48% conf
TOR has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.6pp
▼
Model confidence68% conf
BAL is a lean, so the confidence layer stays modest.
-0.5pp
▲
Travel burden58% conf
TOR is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
+0.5pp
▲
Line steam67% conf
The market moved 0.9pp toward BAL since open.
+0.4pp
▼
Venue split68% conf
TOR's venue form trims BAL's edge by 8.3pp.
-0.4pp

Open price

+109

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

45.8%

Close no-vig

46.7%

Market came to the model

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.8pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

TOR

★ best

-126DraftKings

edge +7.8pp · implied 53.3%

BAL

no live price

Book	TOR	BAL	Best edge
DraftKings	-126★	+105	+7.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BAL vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts