MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

MIL

34-20

PregameSat, 4:10 PM EDT

HOU

26-33

ATS/MIL -1.5O/U/8.5ML/MIL-114

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

8-2

MIL +1.8 vs HOU +1.6 margin

MIL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 970 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

Line movement

200 snapshots

HOU spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 9.0 · -0.5

HOU no-vig %

49.0%

open 48.9% · +0.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Brandon Sproat

SP · #23

1-3

W-L

5.84

ERA

1.54

WHIP

44.2

Last 3 starts

vsLADL(1-3)4.0 IP3 ER7 K

@CHC-4.2 IP3 ER5 K

vsSDW(1-2)5.1 IP3 ER6 K

Home starter

Peter Lambert

SP · #38

3-4

W-L

3.79

ERA

1.17

WHIP

40.1

Last 3 starts

@CHCW(3-4)5.0 IP3 ER5 K

vsTEXL(2-4)6.0 IP5 ER6 K

vsSEAL(2-3)7.0 IP3 ER6 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 8.5

Money-114 / -105

Model edge

Win prob61% / 39%

LeanAway · 11pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesMIL leads series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take MIL on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-114Bet MIL ML↗-114Bet MIL ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 8.5Bet the total↗O/U 8.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

HOU vs MIL.

HOU is 7-3 recently; MIL is 8-2.

38.6%

model · HOU win prob

Recent form

HOU7–3+1.6
MIL8–2+1.8

Situational

HOU1d restB2B
MIL1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. HOU has 0 straight road games; MIL has 1.

Model angle

+8.9ppon MIL

MIL's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. The signals lean the same way. Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.1pp
▲Model confidence+4.2pp
▲Venue split+4.2pp

Players to watch

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.3total bases · ±3.5
Yordan Alvarez · 2.3 TB · last-10 2.3 vs season 2.4.
Christian WalkerHOU
2.0total bases · ±2.9
Christian Walker · 2 TB · last-10 2 vs season 1.9.
Christian YelichMIL
2.0total bases · ±2.4
Christian Yelich · 2 TB · last-10 2.2 vs season 1.8.

Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1

HOU is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-05-29MIL @ HOU5–4

Line move

open -105→-105flat

The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.6%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
40.1%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
42.5%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
40.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like MIL.

MIL's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. The signals lean the same way.

+8.9

pp edge · MIL

-0.10

CLV pp

4.4u · large

on MIL

61.4%

±6.0pp band

4.35u large — +8.1pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+10.4pp

+1.5pp post-cal

Kelly

17.4%

4.3% sized

Decimal

1.88

+8.1pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 8.9pp · MIL over HOU

▲
Model confidence90% conf
MIL clears the model's lock threshold.
+4.2pp
▲
Venue split66% conf
MIL's venue form is 50pp stronger in the recent sample.
+4.2pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
MIL has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.6pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-114

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.0%

Line barely moved

Player projections

HOU vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts