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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1ARI
SF

SF

75-76

5
6
ARI

ARI

77-75

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
26,431 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

SF 5 · ARI 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF4010000005
ARI0300200016

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 19, 25sim 97
    1510
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 97
    287
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 96
    174
    11(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 95
    261
    29(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 95
    17
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 95
    305
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Sep 16·Final/SeriesARI wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks held off San Francisco Giants, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Wilmer Flores

Wilmer Flores

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
A

Adrian Del Castillo

DH

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF75-76
5
6
ARI77-75
SF75-76·ARI77-75
SF

SF

75-76

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-44110001
SPRINT27.251
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-44110001
SPRINT25.716
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-33000010
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
0-33001000
W. FloresW. Flores★1B
2-44222100
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
1-44110000
SPRINT2872
J. EncarnacionJ. Encarnacion★RF
2-44022001
SPRINT26.735
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
0-44000000
A. KniznerA. Knizner★C
1-33010000
Team8-3333585113
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. BeckT. Beck★RP
3.0533011
T. McDonaldT. McDonaldSP
2.0322110
J. LucchesiJ. LucchesiRP
1.0000210
J. ButtoJ. ButtoRP
1.2300000
R. WalkerR. WalkerRP
0.1211100
Team8.01366431
ARI

ARI

77-75

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
1-33110011
SPRINT26.838
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
2-55021000
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
3-55131000
SPRINT29.496
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
1-44110010
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
1-44111001
SPRINT28.175
AA. Del Castillo★DH
1-22112100
SPRINT26.326
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
2-33020000
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
1-22110010
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
0-11000000
J. LawlarJ. LawlarLF
1-22011010
J. BarrosaJ. BarrosaCF
0-22000001
Team13-33336136143
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. RodriguezE. Rodriguez★SP
5.0855121
J. CurtissJ. CurtissRP
1.2000000
B. GarciaB. GarciaRP
0.1000000
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
1.0000000
A. SaalfrankA. SaalfrankRP
1.0000010
Team9.0855131

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • R. Walker
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • SL
      57%·83.1 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      43%·95.9 mph·0% whiff

ARI

  • B. Garcia
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      65%·98.0 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      29%·86.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      6%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Curtiss
    12 pitches·8% CSW
    • FF
      58%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·86.5 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      17%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·87.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

13

5

Runs

6

2

Errors

0

Current series

ARI wins series 4-3

Jul 1SFSF2@ARIARI4
Jul 2SFSF2@ARIARI8
Jul 3SFSF6@ARIARI5
Jul 4SFSF7@ARIARI2
Sep 16SFSF1@ARIARI8
Sep 17SFSF5@ARIARI6today
Sep 17SFSF5@ARIARI1

Season series

ARI leads series 7-5

May 13ARIARI2@SFSF1
May 14ARIARI6@SFSF10
May 14ARIARI8@SFSF7
Jul 1SFSF2@ARIARI4
Jul 2SFSF2@ARIARI8
Jul 3SFSF6@ARIARI5
Jul 4SFSF7@ARIARI2
Sep 9ARIARI5@SFSF11
Sep 10ARIARI3@SFSF5
Sep 10ARIARI5@SFSF3
Sep 16SFSF1@ARIARI8
Sep 17SFSF5@ARIARI6today
Sep 17SFSF5@ARIARI1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 5th Inning

SFSF
W. Flores

W. Flores

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

T. Beck

T. Beck

RP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 1 K · 3 ER · 5 H

ARIARI

A. Del Castillo

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

E. Rodriguez

E. Rodriguez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ARI beat SF 6-5. Marte's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFTop 1st Inning · 4-0
+16pp→ 80% WP

Encarnaci · ón doubled to right, Schmitt scored and Flores scored.

ARIBottom 2nd Inning · 4-3
+17pp→ 47% WP

Del Castillo · homered to right (380 feet), Alexander scored.

ARIBottom 5th Inning · 5-4
+18pp→ 55% WP

Marte · singled to right, Vargas scored, Perdomo to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF4010000005
ARI0300200016

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

5

Runs

6

8

Hits

13

2

Errors

0

13

TB

19

1

HR

1

1

BB

4

3

K

3

8

LOB

22

Win probability

ARI vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

SF won 2 · ARI won 3

4
0

Inn 1

Encarnaci 2

0
3

Inn 2

Castillo 2

1
0

Inn 3

Flores 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

Marte 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Lawlar 1

SF
ARI

Play-by-play · 538 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 6

  2. B9

    Lawlar reached on infield single to first, Carroll scored, Alexander to second, Moreno to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 6

    +8pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 6

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 5

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 5

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 5

  7. B9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Jordan Lawlar

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 6

  8. B9

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 5

  9. B9

    Alexander hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Alexander to first on error by second baseman Schmitt, Moreno to second, Carroll to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 5

    +11pp

  10. B9

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 5

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 5

  12. B9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Blaze Alexander

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 5

  13. B9

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 5

  14. B9

    Moreno walked, Carroll to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 5

    +8pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 5

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 5

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 5

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 5

  19. B9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Gabriel Moreno

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 5

  20. B9

    ·

    SF 5·ARI 5

  21. B9

    Carroll singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SF 5·ARI 5

    +9pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 5·ARI 5

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 5·ARI 5

  24. B9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Corbin Carroll

    ·

    SF 5·ARI 5

  25. B9

    McCray in right field.

    SF 5·ARI 5

  26. B9

    McCray in right field.

    SF 5·ARI 5

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SF 5·ARI 5

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    SF 5·ARI 5

  29. T9

    ·

    SF 5·ARI 5

  30. T9

    Lee grounded out to first.

    ·

    SF 5·ARI 5

Player projections

ARI vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.3%

ensemble · ARI favored

  • Elo Static

    56.7%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.2%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.9%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872