MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

32-24

PregameSat, 4:05 PM EDT

WSH

29-29

ATS/SD -1.5O/U/7.5ML/SD-126

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

6-4

WSH +1.6 vs SD -0.6 margin

WSH brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

WSH no-vig %

46.8%

open 46.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Michael King

SP · #34

4-3

W-L

2.76

ERA

1.15

WHIP

62.0

Last 3 starts

vsATHL(4-3)3.2 IP4 ER4 K

vsLADW(4-2)7.0 IP0 ER9 K

@MIL-5.2 IP1 ER5 K

Home starter

Foster Griffin

SP · #22

6-2

W-L

3.63

ERA

1.13

WHIP

62.0

Last 3 starts

@ATLW(6-2)6.0 IP0 ER6 K

vsNYMW(5-2)5.0 IP5 ER5 K

@CINL(4-2)4.1 IP9 ER7 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 7.5

Money-126 / +104

Model edge

Win prob61% / 39%

LeanAway · 11pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesSD leads series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take SD on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-126Bet SD ML↗-126Bet SD ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 7.5Bet the total↗O/U 7.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

WSH vs SD.

WSH is 6-4 recently; SD is 4-6.

39.1%

model · WSH win prob

Recent form

WSH6–4+1.6
SD4–6-0.6

Situational

WSH1d restB2B
SD1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. WSH has 0 straight road games; SD has 1.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.1pp

Players to watch

James WoodWSH
2.6total bases · ±2.6
James Wood · 2.6 TB · last-10 2.9 vs season 2.1.
CJ AbramsWSH
2.2total bases · ±2.5
CJ Abrams · 2.2 TB · last-10 2.3 vs season 2.
Keibert RuizWSH
2.1total bases · ±2.0
Keibert Ruiz · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.4 vs season 1.6.

Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1

WSH is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-05-29SD @ WSH7–5

Line move

open +104→+104flat

The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.1%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
47.9%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.8%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.3%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.03 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts