MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7ARI

75-75

ARI

76-75

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

21,521 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.5%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
55.4%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.2%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.5%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.82 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
6.1± 2.1low
Trevor McDonaldSF
5.4± 2.3low
Michael SorokaARI
5.2± 3.5low

Hits

Ketel MarteARI
1.6± 1.3high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.3± 1.2high
Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.3± 1.1high

Total bases

Ketel MarteARI
3.0± 2.2high
Casey SchmittSF
2.4± 2.2high
Willy AdamesSF
2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

Ketel MarteARI
1.1± 1.4high
Casey SchmittSF
0.9± 1.3high
Gabriel MorenoARI
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.5± 3.5low
Adrian HouserSF
3.1± 2.9low
Logan WebbSF
3.1± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

SF 1 · ARI 8 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SF	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
ARI	1	0	0	0	0	6	0	1	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
J. Lee★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
SPRINT27.148
W. Adames★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
SPRINT27.457
R. Devers★1B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
SPRINT25.716
M. Chapman★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
SPRINT28.175
B. Eldridge★DH	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. Ramos★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Bailey★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Schmitt★DH	2-3	3	1	2	1	1	0	1
SPRINT2872
D. Gilbert★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	2-29	29	1	2	1	1	2	10

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-3

0-4

0-4

0-3

0-3

0-3

0-3

2-3

0-3

Team

2-29

	Pitching
K. Teng★RP	4.0	2	1	0	1	5	0
M. GageRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. PegueroRP	0.1	1	2	2	2	0	0
J. LucchesiRP	0.2	3	3	2	0	0	1
K. WinnRP	2.0	2	1	1	0	1	0
Team	8.0	9	8	6	4	6	1

Pitching

Player

4.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

2.0

Team

8.0

	Batting
G. Perdomo★SS	3-3	3	1	3	2	0	2	0
SPRINT26.838
K. Marte★2B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Carroll★RF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
G. Moreno★C	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
B. Alexander★3B	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	2
I. Vargas★1B	1-4	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
SPRINT26.941
A. Thomas★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. McCann★C	1-4	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
SPRINT25.29
J. McCarthy★LF	1-4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT29.698
J. LawlarLF	1-1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. BarrosaCF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	9-33	33	8	9	7	1	4	6

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

G. Perdomo★SS

3-3