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Live · 9
  • MLBBot 7
    MIN 7@PIT 8
    +39.0ppmedium
  • MLBTop 8
    KC 4@TEX 3
    -50.7ppmedium
  • MLBEnd 7
    BOS 2@CLE 1
    -52.7ppmedium
  • MLBTop 8
    SD 4@WSH 7
    +51.1pplow
  • MLBEnd 8
    TOR 4@BAL 1
    -48.8pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    LAA 7@TB 3
    -71.5pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    MIA 1@NYM 5
    +49.6pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    MIL 2@HOU 6
    +58.9pplow
  • WNBAEnd of 1st
    LA 18@CON 20
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+10NYM
MIA

MIA

63-72

9
19
NYM

NYM

73-62

Citi Field · Queens, New York
42,112 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

MIA 9 · NYM 19 (by 10)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYM +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0000400149
NYM5700010619

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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MLB·Fri, Aug 29·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

New York Mets held off Miami Marlins, 19–9. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Otto Lopez

Otto Lopez

SS

2.200OPS

5-4

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Brandon Nimmo

Brandon Nimmo

RF

3.050OPS

4-3

AB-H

4

R

4

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA63-72
9
19
NYM73-62
MIA63-72·NYM73-62
MIA

MIA

63-72

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-55110001
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-44200012
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
1-44010000
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
4-55144101
SPRINT28.381
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
1-55111101
SPRINT25.614
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
2-55120001
SPRINT2872
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
3-55231000
SPRINT26.326
E. WagamanE. Wagaman★1B
3-55131001
J. WiemerJ. Wiemer★RF
0-44001003
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja3B
0-11000000
SPRINT28.381
Team15-434391582110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. PerezE. Perez★SP
0.2355202
T. ZuberT. ZuberRP
1.0577211
V. BellozoV. BellozoRP
4.1411231
S. MartinezS. MartinezRP
1.0000010
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja3B
1.0666102
SPRINT28.381
Team8.0181919756
NYM

NYM

73-62

19
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
1-33112010
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
2-33222111
SPRINT25.513
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
3-66232100
SPRINT25.29
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
2-44321110
SPRINT25.513
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
3-44434210
SPRINT28.278
S. MarteS. Marte★RF
1-44211011
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
2-44220010
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
2-55224002
SPRINT28.891
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
1-44113110
SPRINT26.428
R. MauricioR. MauricioSS
1-22010000
C. MullinsC. MullinsCF
0-22000001
Team18-4141191819675
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. TongJ. Tong★SP
5.0641060
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
0.1444102
SPRINT26.428
R. HelsleyR. HelsleyRP
1.0100000
J. CastilloJ. CastilloRP
2.0411020
R. StanekR. StanekRP
0.2000020
Team9.015961102

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • V. Bellozo
    65 pitches·26% CSW
    • FC
      32%·84.5 mph·18% whiff
    • FF
      28%·91.1 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      18%·80.9 mph·60% whiff
    • ST
      14%·77.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·74.5 mph·— whiff
  • E. Perez
    39 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      62%·98.4 mph·10% whiff
    • SL
      18%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·90.7 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      5%·79.1 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      5%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·84.2 mph·— whiff
  • T. Zuber
    39 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      28%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      21%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·93.7 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      10%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Sanoja
    28 pitches·18% CSW
    • FA
      100%·61.5 mph·8% whiff
  • S. Martinez
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • FF
      31%·90.2 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      31%·77.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      15%·85.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      15%·88.9 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      8%·83.8 mph·— whiff

NYM

  • J. Tong
    97 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      61%·95.4 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      25%·85.6 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      13%·77.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      1%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Castillo
    47 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      43%·93.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      26%·85.4 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      21%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·86.5 mph·25% whiff
  • L. Torrens
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • FA
      84%·63.6 mph·17% whiff
    • EP
      11%·48.4 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      5%·59.0 mph·— whiff
  • R. Helsley
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      67%·97.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      25%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Stanek
    8 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·88.4 mph·75% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

Hits

18

9

Runs

19

0

Errors

2

Current series

MIA wins series 4-3

Apr 7MIAMIA0@NYMNYM2
Apr 8MIAMIA5@NYMNYM10
Apr 9MIAMIA5@NYMNYM0
Aug 28MIAMIA7@NYMNYM4
Aug 29MIAMIA9@NYMNYM19today
Aug 30MIAMIA11@NYMNYM8
Aug 31MIAMIA5@NYMNYM1

Season series

NYM lead series 5-3

Mar 31NYMNYM10@MIAMIA4
Apr 1NYMNYM2@MIAMIA4
Apr 2NYMNYM6@MIAMIA5
Apr 7MIAMIA0@NYMNYM2
Apr 8MIAMIA5@NYMNYM10
Apr 9MIAMIA5@NYMNYM0
Aug 28MIAMIA7@NYMNYM4
Aug 29MIAMIA9@NYMNYM19today
Aug 30MIAMIA11@NYMNYM8
Aug 31MIAMIA5@NYMNYM1
Sep 26NYMNYM2@MIAMIA6
Sep 27NYMNYM5@MIAMIA0
Sep 28NYMNYM0@MIAMIA4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 1st Inning

MIAMIA
O. Lopez

O. Lopez

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-5 · 1 HR · 2.200 OPS

V. Bellozo

V. Bellozo

RP

Top reliever

4.1 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

NYMNYM
B. Nimmo

B. Nimmo

RF

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.050 OPS

J. Tong

J. Tong

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 6 H

How it ended

NYM beat MIA 19-9.

Win probability

NYM vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+14pp→ 77% WP

J. Soto · homered to right center (398 feet), Lindor scored.

NYMBottom 1st Inning · 0-5
+11pp→ 92% WP

Nimmo · homered to right (380 feet), Alonso scored and Vientos scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0000400149
NYM57000106—19

Period scoring

MIA won 1 · NYM won 4

0
5

Inn 1

Nimmo 3

0
7

Inn 2

Alonso 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

4
0

Inn 5

Lopez 2

0
1

Inn 6

Nimmo 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
6

Inn 8

Wiemer 1

Torrens 3

4

Inn 9

Lopez 2

MIA
NYM

Play-by-play · 700 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIA 9·NYM 19

  2. T9

    Wiemer struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIA 9·NYM 19

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 9·NYM 19

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 9·NYM 19

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 9·NYM 19

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 9·NYM 19

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 9·NYM 19

  8. T9

    Ryne Stanek pitches to Joey Wiemer

    · ·

    MIA 9·NYM 19

  9. T9

    · ·

    MIA 9·NYM 19

  10. T9

    Wagaman struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIA 9·NYM 19

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 9·NYM 19

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 9·NYM 19

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 9·NYM 19

  14. T9

    Ryne Stanek pitches to Eric Wagaman

    · ·

    MIA 9·NYM 19

  15. T9

    Stanek relieved Torrens

    ·

    MIA 9·NYM 19

  16. T9

    ·

    MIA 9·NYM 19

  17. T9

    Johnston tripled to right, Norby scored.

    · ·

    MIA 9·NYM 19

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 9·NYM 19

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 9·NYM 19

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 9·NYM 19

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 9·NYM 19

  22. T9

    Luis Torrens pitches to Troy Johnston

    · ·

    MIA 9·NYM 19

  23. T9

    ·

    MIA 8·NYM 19

  24. T9

    Norby singled to center.

    ·

    MIA 8·NYM 19

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 8·NYM 19

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 8·NYM 19

  27. T9

    Luis Torrens pitches to Connor Norby

    ·

    MIA 8·NYM 19

  28. T9

    ·

    MIA 8·NYM 19

  29. T9

    Hicks homered to right (361 feet).

    ·

    MIA 8·NYM 19

  30. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 8·NYM 19

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

9

Runs

19

15

Hits

18

0

Errors

2

26

TB

39

2

HR

6

1

BB

7

10

K

5

23

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 17 players in cohort
  • Javier SanojaMIA · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Javier SanojaMIA · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

NYM vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.8%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    55.7%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.6%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.6%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.72 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 31, 25sim 90
    285
    21(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 89
    33
    13(H)20
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 89
    53
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 88
    50
    13(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 88
    2811
    21(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 4, 25sim 88
    52
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
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