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Live · 6
  • MLBTop 1
    MIN 0@PIT 0
    -5.8ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    SD 0@WSH 0
    -5.5ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    TOR 0@BAL 0
    -5.6ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    KC 0@TEX 0
    -5.9ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    MIA 0@NYM 0
    -5.5ppmedium
  • MLBBot 7
    DET 1@CHW 4
    +36.2pplow
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FINAL+3MIA
MIA

MIA

64-72

11
8
NYM

NYM

73-63

Citi Field · Queens, New York
42,726 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 11 · NYM 8 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA50300010211
NYM1131020008

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 64-42
62%Last 30 · 327-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 2, 25sim 93
    266
    21(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 22, 25sim 93
    2112
    15(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 93
    33
    13(H)20
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 93
    35
    6(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 92
    287
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 91
    246
    19(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Aug 30·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins went into New York Mets and beat them, 11–8.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Eric Wagaman

Eric Wagaman

1B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Juan Soto

Juan Soto

LF

5.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

3

R

3

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA64-72
11
8
NYM73-63
MIA64-72·NYM73-63
MIA

MIA

64-72

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-55110000
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-55110001
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
2-55220001
SPRINT27.354
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
2-44221001
SPRINT28.483
E. WagamanE. Wagaman★1B
2-33222011
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
1-22213020
SPRINT2872
D. MyersD. Myers★CF
0-11000001
J. WiemerJ. Wiemer★RF
3-55033001
SPRINT28.891
D. HillD. Hill★RF
0-44000002
T. JohnstonT. JohnstonRF
0-11000001
J. MarseeJ. MarseeCF
1-33011011
Team13-38381113100510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. CabreraE. Cabrera★SP
4.0865143
L. BacharL. BacharRP
1.0000110
C. GibsonC. GibsonRP
0.2222101
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
1.1100010
R. HenriquezR. HenriquezRP
1.0000110
T. PhillipsT. PhillipsRP
1.0100110
Team9.01287584
NYM

NYM

73-63

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
1-55211101
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
2-22323220
SPRINT25.513
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
2-55020001
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
2-55120001
SPRINT28.278
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-55113102
SPRINT25.513
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
1-44010010
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
2-44120010
SPRINT26.735
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
0-33000001
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
0-44000011
S. MarteS. MarteRF
0-11000001
H. SengerH. SengerC
1-11010000
Team12-39398127458
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. PetersonD. Peterson★SP
2.0888310
C. DevenskiC. DevenskiRP
3.0000130
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
1.0000020
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0211000
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.0000010
E. DiazE. DiazRP
1.0322130
Team9.01311115100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • E. Cabrera
    79 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      28%·94.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      22%·83.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      22%·97.5 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      15%·89.0 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      14%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Gibson
    23 pitches·13% CSW
    • CU
      30%·78.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      30%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      26%·78.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Bachar
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • ST
      50%·86.5 mph·43% whiff
    • SL
      28%·89.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      22%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Henriquez
    17 pitches·41% CSW
    • CH
      29%·93.2 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      29%·86.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      24%·87.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      18%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Faucher
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • FC
      53%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·87.6 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      13%·85.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      7%·96.8 mph·— whiff
  • T. Phillips
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • CU
      47%·84.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      33%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      7%·88.2 mph·— whiff

NYM

  • D. Peterson
    65 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      37%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·84.2 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      18%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·79.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Devenski
    42 pitches·24% CSW
    • CH
      33%·82.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      21%·85.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      19%·92.7 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      19%·78.5 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      7%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Diaz
    30 pitches·47% CSW
    • FF
      53%·97.5 mph·89% whiff
    • SL
      47%·90.3 mph·50% whiff
  • G. Soto
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      47%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      32%·84.2 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      11%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Raley
    15 pitches·47% CSW
    • ST
      47%·80.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      20%·82.7 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      20%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·89.4 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      73%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·73.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

12

11

Runs

8

2

Errors

0

Current series

MIA wins series 4-3

Apr 7MIAMIA0@NYMNYM2
Apr 8MIAMIA5@NYMNYM10
Apr 9MIAMIA5@NYMNYM0
Aug 28MIAMIA7@NYMNYM4
Aug 29MIAMIA9@NYMNYM19
Aug 30MIAMIA11@NYMNYM8today
Aug 31MIAMIA5@NYMNYM1

Season series

NYM lead series 5-4

Mar 31NYMNYM10@MIAMIA4
Apr 1NYMNYM2@MIAMIA4
Apr 2NYMNYM6@MIAMIA5
Apr 7MIAMIA0@NYMNYM2
Apr 8MIAMIA5@NYMNYM10
Apr 9MIAMIA5@NYMNYM0
Aug 28MIAMIA7@NYMNYM4
Aug 29MIAMIA9@NYMNYM19
Aug 30MIAMIA11@NYMNYM8today
Aug 31MIAMIA5@NYMNYM1
Sep 26NYMNYM2@MIAMIA6
Sep 27NYMNYM5@MIAMIA0
Sep 28NYMNYM0@MIAMIA4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 30pp · Bottom 6th Inning

MIAMIA
E. Wagaman

E. Wagaman

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 2 R · 1.417 OPS

E. Cabrera

E. Cabrera

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

NYMNYM
J. Soto

J. Soto

LF

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-2 · 2 HR · 5.000 OPS

C. Devenski

C. Devenski

RP

Top reliever

3.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 1 BB

How it ended

MIA beat NYM 11-8. J. Soto's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (30pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYM vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMBottom 6th Inning · 8-8
+30pp→ 61% WP

J. Soto · homered to right center (382 feet), Lindor scored.

NYMBottom 7th Inning · 9-8
+18pp→ 61% WP

McNeil · tripled to left.

MIATop 9th Inning · 9-8
+16pp→ 87% WP

Ram · írez doubled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA50300010211
NYM1131020008

Period scoring

MIA won 3 · NYM won 3

5
1

Inn 1

Wagaman 2

Lindor 1

0
1

Inn 2

Lindor 1

3
3

Inn 3

Marsee 1

Vientos 3

0
1

Inn 4

Soto 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Soto 2

1
0

Inn 7

Norby 1

0
0

Inn 8

2
0

Inn 9

Norby 2

MIA
NYM

Play-by-play · 683 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIA 11·NYM 8

  2. B9

    · ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

  3. B9

    Mullins struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

    −3pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

  8. B9

    Tyler Phillips pitches to Cedric Mullins

    · ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

  9. B9

    · ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

  10. B9

    Senger singled to left, Baty to second.

    · ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

    +2pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

  13. B9

    Tyler Phillips pitches to Hayden Senger

    · ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

  14. B9

    ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

  15. B9

    Baty grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, McNeil out at second.

    · ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

    −3pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

  19. B9

    Tyler Phillips pitches to Brett Baty

    · ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

  20. B9

    ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

  21. B9

    McNeil walked.

    ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

    +2pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

  27. B9

    Tyler Phillips pitches to Jeff McNeil

    · ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

  28. B9

    ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

  29. B9

    Vientos grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

    −2pp

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 11·NYM 8

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

11

Runs

8

13

Hits

12

2

Errors

0

19

TB

28

0

HR

4

5

BB

5

10

K

8

17

LOB

19

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872
  • Connor NorbyMIA · 1B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

NYM vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.3%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    57.2%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.4%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.1%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.46 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.