Sep 12, 25sim 76
991
19(H)86
EloWin probTime of year
LA
36LiveHalftime
CON
39Updated 7:09 PM ET
HALFTIME+3CON
LA
4-3
3639
CON
1-8
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 371 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Updated 0s ago
LA · top performer
Ariel Atkins
G · #7
11.3Game score
10
Pts
3
Reb
1
Ast
CON · top performer
Aneesah Morrow
F · #24
7.4Game score
8
Pts
7
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Los Angeles Sparks at Connecticut Sun · live
WNBA · Box score
Halftime
LA4-3
3639
CON1-8
LA4-3CON1-8
LA
4-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 17 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 16 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | |
| 15 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | |
| 10 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -12 | |
| 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +7 | |
| 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +9 | |
| Team | 36 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 12 | ||
| DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin, Jihyun, K. Plum | ||||||||
CON
1-8
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 9 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| 15 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 15 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | |
| 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +3 | |
| 10 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +3 | |
| 10 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| Team | 39 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 8 | ||
| DNP: A. Edwards, R. Beers | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
46
7
Ast
11
Season series
May 30LA@CONtoday
LA@CONtodayAug 18LA@CONupcoming
LA@CONupcomingAug 23CON@LAupcoming
CON@LAupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LA -3.5
Between — and 5
Total
168.5
Standard · +3.5 vs avg
Moneyline
LA-18064%CON+15040%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
0.0 since open
Total
168.5
0.0 since open
Live · top performers so far
HalftimeGame flowLA ↔ CON
Recent swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 1.5
Just happened
End of the 2nd Quarter
LAA. Atkins
GLeading · Halftime · 14 min
10 PTS · 3 REB · 1 AST
On pace: 29 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST
CONA. Morrow
FLeading · Halftime · 15 min
8 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST
On pace: 21 PTS · 19 REB · 5 AST
How it's going
CON lead LA 39-36 (Halftime). A. Morrow led with 8 PTS, 7 REB, 2 AST. Aneesah Morrow's play in the 2nd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).
Win probability
CON vs LA
Starters vs bench
production by unitLAstarters 86% of ptsStarters(5)
31 PTS · 11 REB · 7 AST
GS 22
Bench(4)
5 PTS · 5 REB · 0 AST
GS 1
CONstarters 79% of ptsStarters(5)
31 PTS · 10 REB · 8 AST
GS 20
Bench(5)
8 PTS · 2 REB · 3 AST
GS 8
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCON2nd Quarter · 6:15 · 20-25
+8pp→ 50% WP
Erica Wheeler · misses 14-foot pullup jump shot
CON2nd Quarter · 7:23 · 18-22
+19pp→ 48% WP
Aneesah Morrow · kicked ball violation
CON2nd Quarter · 1.5 · 36-39
+9pp→ 41% WP
Gianna Kneepkens · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Charlisse Leger-Walker assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 18 | 18 | 36 |
| CON | 20 | 19 | 39 |
Period scoring
LA won 0 · CON won 2
18
20
Q1
Ogwumike 7
Lacan 7
18
19
Q2
Atkins 8
Griner 12
LA
CON
Shooting comparison
LA
CON
44%
12-27
FG
46%
16-35
44%
4-9
3PT
27%
3-11
67%
8-12
FT
67%
4-6
Play-by-play · 204 plays
period
event
player
- Q2·0.0
End of the 2nd Quarter
LA 36·CON 39
+2pp
- Q2·1.5
Gianna Kneepkens makes 25-foot three point jumper (Charlisse Leger-Walker assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LA 36·CON 39
+9pp
- Q2·10.7
Brittney Griner makes free throw flagrant 2 of 2
LA 36·CON 36
+3pp
- Q2·10.7
Sun offensive team rebound
LA 36·CON 35
−2pp
- Q2·10.7
Brittney Griner misses free throw flagrant 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
LA 36·CON 35
−8pp
- Q2·10.7
Kennedy Burke enters the game for Brittney Griner
·
LA 36·CON 35
- Q2·10.7
(00:10.7) [Sparks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
LA 36·CON 35
−1pp
- Q2·10.7
Erica Wheeler offensive foul turnover
LA 36·CON 35
- Q2·10.7
Erica Wheeler flagrant foul type 1
LA 36·CON 35
+1pp
- Q2·31.9
Saniya Rivers makes 15-foot pullup jump shot
LA 36·CON 35
+5pp
- Q2·46.9
Nneka Ogwumike makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 36·CON 33
−1pp
- Q2·46.9
Sparks offensive team rebound
LA 35·CON 33
+2pp
- Q2·46.9
Nneka Ogwumike misses free throw 1 of 2
LA 35·CON 33
+2pp
- Q2·46.9
Gianna Kneepkens personal foul
LA 35·CON 33
−4pp
- Q2·46.9
Sparks defensive team rebound
LA 35·CON 33
- Q2·48.4
Saniya Rivers misses 12-foot pullup jump shot
LA 35·CON 33
−1pp
- Q2·1:01
Rae Burrell makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 35·CON 33
+0.7pp
- Q2·1:01
Erica Wheeler enters the game for Ariel Atkins
·
LA 34·CON 33
- Q2·1:01
Chance Gray enters the game for Ta'Niya Latson
·
LA 34·CON 33
- Q2·1:01
Olivia Nelson-Ododa enters the game for Aneesah Morrow
·
LA 34·CON 33
- Q2·1:01
Rae Burrell makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 34·CON 33
−0.8pp
- Q2·1:01
Gianna Kneepkens personal foul
LA 33·CON 33
−4pp
- Q2·1:11
Brittney Griner makes driving layup (Aneesah Morrow assists)
·
LA 33·CON 33
+4pp
- Q2·1:23
Brittney Griner defensive rebound
LA 33·CON 31
- Q2·1:24
Ariel Atkins misses driving floating jump shot
LA 33·CON 31
+1pp
- Q2·1:42
Saniya Rivers steps out of bounds turnover
LA 33·CON 31
−2pp
- Q2·2:00
Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound
LA 33·CON 31
- Q2·2:00
Nneka Ogwumike misses free throw 2 of 2
LA 33·CON 31
+2pp
- Q2·2:00
Rae Burrell enters the game for Kate Martin
·
LA 33·CON 31
- Q2·2:00
Sparks offensive team rebound
LA 33·CON 31
+2pp
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
CON
Home
12-27
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
16-35
44
FG %
46
4-9
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
3-11
8-12
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
4-6
7
Assists
11
12
Turnovers
8
Betting line
LA -3.5·O/U 168.5·LA -180/CON +150
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q2away leadsCON leads
Key moments · live
newest firstEnsemble breakdown
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
28.3%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Live model · pick
Receipts
Player props
Player projections
CON vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
- Dearica HambyLA16.0± 8.0low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
Assists
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 0.8low
- Brittney GrinerCON0.6± 1.2low
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team rate stats
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LA
league avg
CON
50.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
40.7%
34.3%
3PT %
◀
32.6
26.0%
91.6
PPG
◀
85.4
74.7
21.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.9
16.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.8