Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at CON?

The model favors CON, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CON

4-4

8184

CON

2-8

WNBASat, May 30FinalSeriesCON leads series 1-0VegasLA -3.5

LA · top performer

Ariel Atkins

G · #7

14.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CON · top performer

Aneesah Morrow

F · #24

16.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLA ↔ CON

Biggest swing: 20pp · 4th Quarter · 52.0

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. OgwumikeF · #30	33	12	4-8	1-4	3-6	-13	3	2
D. HambyF · #5	30	11	4-13	0-2	3-5	-4	7	2
E. WheelerG · #17	30	13	5-12	0-4	3-5	-3	3	6
A. AtkinsG · #7	32	16	3-9	2-4	8-8	+5	4	1
R. BurrellG · #12	27	16	6-13	2-4	2-2	-6	5	1
Bench
C. BrinkF · #22	18	2	1-4	0-1	—	+11	4	3
K. MartinG · #21	13	2	1-2	0-1	—	+3	1	0
T. LatsonG · #0	5	3	1-1	1-1	—	-3	0	0
C. GrayG · #2	13	6	2-4	2-4	—	-5	2	1
Team		81	27-66	8-25	19-26		29	16
DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin, Jihyun, K. Plum

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. MillerF · #1	20	12	5-11	1-3	1-1	+2	1	2
A. MorrowF · #24	32	17	6-13	1-4	4-4	0	14	2
B. GrinerC · #42	15	9	3-5	—	3-4	-1	2	1
S. RiversG · #22	29	9	4-10	0-1	1-2	+6	0	4
L. LacanG · #47	21	12	5-14	1-6	1-4	+4	2	3
Bench
R. BeersF · #15	11	0	—	—	—	+4	7	2
N. AnglomaF · #33	11	2	0-2	0-1	2-2	-1	0	0
O. Nelson-OdodaC · #10	17	4	0-1	—	4-4	+3	4	1
K. BurkeG · #25	24	14	4-8	2-5	4-8	+3	6	0
C. Leger-WalkerG · #4	13	2	0-2	0-1	2-2	-3	1	3
G. KneepkensG · #5	6	3	1-1	1-1	—	-2	0	0
Team		84	28-67	6-22	22-31		37	18
DNP: A. Edwards

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

CON

Home

27-66

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

28-67

FG %

8-25

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

6-22

19-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-31

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CON leads series 1-0

May 30

LA81@

CON84today

Aug 18

LA@

CONupcoming

Aug 23

CON@

LAupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

168.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LA-18064%

CON+15040%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -3.5↗SpreadBet LA -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

168.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CON beat LA 84-81. A. Morrow led with 17 PTS, 14 REB, 2 AST. Rae Burrell's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CON vs LA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LAstarters 84% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 22 REB · 12 AST

GS 49

Bench(4)

13 PTS · 7 REB · 4 AST

GS 6

CONstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 19 REB · 12 AST

GS 39

Bench(6)

25 PTS · 18 REB · 6 AST

GS 24

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CON2nd Quarter · 7:23 · 18-22

+19pp→ 48% WP

Aneesah Morrow · kicked ball violation

LA4th Quarter · 6:18 · 64-70

+17pp→ 24% WP

Leila Lacan · misses 23-foot three point jumper

LA4th Quarter · 52.0 · 79-81

+20pp→ 27% WP

Rae Burrell · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dearica Hamby assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LA	18	18	24	21	81
CON	20	19	23	22	84

Period scoring

LA won 1 · CON won 3

Ogwumike 7

Lacan 7

Atkins 8

Griner 12

Burrell 9

Morrow 8

Wheeler 6

Burke 6

CON

Shooting comparison

CON

41%

27-66

42%

28-67

32%

8-25

3PT

27%

6-22

73%

19-26

71%

22-31

Play-by-play · 455 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LA 81·CON 84
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LA 81·CON 84
+1pp
Q4·2.2
Dearica Hamby makes 2-foot floating jump shot
LA 81·CON 84
−0.5pp
Q4·2.8
Dearica Hamby offensive rebound
LA 79·CON 84
Q4·3.0
Dearica Hamby misses driving floating jump shot
LA 79·CON 84
+0.5pp
Q4·3.4
Dearica Hamby offensive rebound
LA 79·CON 84
Q4·4.2
Olivia Nelson-Ododa blocks Nneka Ogwumike 's 25-foot three point jumper
·
LA 79·CON 84
+1pp
Q4·6.9
Sparks timeout
LA 79·CON 84
Q4·6.9
Kennedy Burke makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 79·CON 84
Q4·6.9
Sun offensive team rebound
LA 79·CON 83
−1pp
Q4·6.9
Kennedy Burke misses free throw 1 of 2
LA 79·CON 83
Q4·6.9
Rae Burrell personal take foul
LA 79·CON 83
+2pp
Q4·7.2
Kennedy Burke defensive rebound
LA 79·CON 83
+1pp
Q4·8.3
Ariel Atkins misses 22-foot three point jumper
LA 79·CON 83
+4pp
Q4·12.0
Sparks Full timeout
LA 79·CON 83
Q4·12.0
Olivia Nelson-Ododa makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 79·CON 83
−3pp
Q4·12.0
Olivia Nelson-Ododa makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 79·CON 82
+1pp
Q4·12.0
Nneka Ogwumike personal take foulBIG MOMENT
LA 79·CON 81
+13pp
Q4·18.5
Olivia Nelson-Ododa defensive rebound
LA 79·CON 81
+4pp
Q4·20.1
Dearica Hamby misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
LA 79·CON 81
+14pp
Q4·30.7
Aneesah Morrow lost ball turnover (Dearica Hamby steals)BIG MOMENT
·
LA 79·CON 81
−8pp
Q4·52.0
Rae Burrell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dearica Hamby assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LA 79·CON 81
−20pp
Q4·1:02
Sparks Full timeout
LA 76·CON 81
Q4·1:02
Sun delay of game violationBIG MOMENT
LA 76·CON 81
+5pp
Q4·1:02
Leila Lacan traveling turnoverBIG MOMENT
LA 76·CON 81
−5pp
Q4·1:05
Kennedy Burke defensive rebound
LA 76·CON 81
+2pp
Q4·1:07
Rae Burrell misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
LA 76·CON 81
+5pp
Q4·1:25
Kennedy Burke makes driving layup (Leila Lacan assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LA 76·CON 81
+8pp
Q4·1:37
Erica Wheeler makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
LA 76·CON 79
−7pp
Q4·1:48
Olivia Nelson-Ododa makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 74·CON 79
−4pp

Betting line

LA -3.5·O/U 168.5·LA -180/CON +150

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

onnecticut Sun held off Los Angeles Sparks, 84–81. Decided by 3.

CON +3.5 cashed (LA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 168.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CON

eFG%

shooting

47.0%

46.3%

TOV%

ball control

17.1%

16.6%

OREB%

offensive glass

30.6%

40.0%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

28.8%

32.8%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Aneesah MorrowCON · F
DRB%.37599+
Nneka OgwumikeLA · F
DRB%.25989
Dearica HambyLA · F
ORB%.10687
Saniya RiversCON · G
AST/TO2.179
Erica WheelerLA · G
AST/TO274

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

16.4%

ensemble · LA favored

Elo Static
31.6%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
28.1%
P(CON win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
29.1%
P(CON win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.47 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.60

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+225

Close price

+190

Open no-vig

29.5%

Close no-vig

33.1%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at CON?: The model favors CON, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+20.0pp

best edge · LA · DraftKings

★ best

-180DraftKings

edge +20.0pp · implied 61.6%

CON

no live price

Book	LA	CON	Best edge
DraftKings	-180★	+150	+20.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CON vs LA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Kelsey PlumLA
23.3± 15.0low
Nneka OgwumikeLA
17.9± 4.8high
Dearica HambyLA
15.1± 3.4high

Rebounds

Nneka OgwumikeLA
9.3± 3.1high
Aneesah MorrowCON
8.1± 5.0high
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
6.6± 3.1high

Assists

Kelsey PlumLA
6.6± 3.5low
Erica WheelerLA
5.9± 2.2high
Leila LacanCON
4.6± 1.5high

Blocks

Brittney GrinerCON
1.8± 1.0medium
Cameron BrinkLA
1.4± 0.8high
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
1.1± 1.2high

Steals

Leila LacanCON
2.0± 1.3high
Dearica HambyLA
1.8± 1.2high
Ariel AtkinsLA
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Los Angeles SparksConnecticut Sun

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop