HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 11
  • MLBTop 7
    ARI 2@CIN 2
    -7.3pppeak
  • MLBBot 6
    NYY 5@TOR 7
    +63.0pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    STL 3@MIN 1
    -39.7pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    SD 3@BAL 7
    +50.3pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    ATL 2@NYM 6
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBBot 2
    SEA 5@WSH 0
    -47.1pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    TEX 1@BOS 7
    +51.9pplow
  • MLBMid 6
    LAD 2@CHW 8
    +53.3pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    PHI 0@MIL 6
    +40.0pplow
  • WNBA1:16 - 4th
    TOR 79@WSH 83
    +23.3pppeak
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2TB
CLE

CLE

69-70

2
4
TB

TB

71-69

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida
8,306 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

CLE

league avg

TB

TB

.688

OPS

.715

▶

.722

.317

OBP

.319

▶

.336

4.01

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.57

3.80

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.91

1.26

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.22

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

CLE 2 · TB 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CLE0000000022
TB100102004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 65-32
61%Last 30 · 303-190
Receipts →

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
MLB·Thu, Sep 4·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 3-1

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays held off Cleveland Guardians, 4–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1C. MorelTB+26.6pp
  2. 2L. AllenCLE−13.3pp
  3. 3B. LoweTB+11.0pp

CLE · top performer

CLE
Kyle Manzardo

Kyle Manzardo

1B

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Carson Williams

Carson Williams

SS

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanCF
.2724000001
D. SchneemannCF
.2154000004
J. Ramirez3B
.2804121100
K. Manzardo1B
.2352111110
B. NaylorC
.1802000001
N. JonesRF
.2142000001
G. AriasSS
.2214000002
C. KayfusLF
.2001000010
B. RocchioSS
.2333000001
- A. MartinezLF
.2251000001
- D. FryRF
.1571000001
- A. HedgesC
.1461000000
- J. NoelRF
.1511000001
Team302322213

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
L. AllenRP
5.06432492
M. FestaRP
1.00000111
K. AllardRP
2.02000234
Team8.084327137

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonLF
.2904000001
Y. DiazDH
.2924000001
J. Caminero3B
.2634110000
B. Lowe2B
.2654010001
C. Morel1B
.2274231001
J. MangumLF
.2963120010
E. PereiraRF
.1462000002
N. FortesC
.1434000001
C. WilliamsSS
.2291012010
- J. LoweLF
.2392001000
Team32484027

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
R. PepiotSP
5.00002690
B. BakerRP
1.01000111
G. CleavingerRP
1.00000313
E. UcetaRP
1.00000212
P. FairbanksRP
1.02220121
Team9.0322213147

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

  • L. Allen
    92 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      37%·91.9 mph·24% whiff
    • ST
      27%·78.1 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      23%·81.8 mph·7% whiff
    • SI
      9%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      4%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Allard
    34 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      53%·89.2 mph·30% whiff
    • CH
      24%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      21%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·71.3 mph·— whiff
  • M. Festa
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • ST
      45%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      36%·90.7 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      18%·91.0 mph·0% whiff

TB

  • R. Pepiot
    90 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      61%·95.0 mph·19% whiff
    • CH
      20%·87.3 mph·55% whiff
    • SL
      13%·89.8 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      4%·79.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      1%·94.7 mph·— whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      62%·97.3 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      38%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • SL
      69%·87.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      15%·97.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      15%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Uceta
    12 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      67%·93.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      33%·88.3 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Baker
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • FF
      55%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      36%·84.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      9%·88.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

8

2

Runs

4

2

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 3-1

Sep 4CLECLE2@TBTB4today
Sep 5CLECLE7@TBTB1
Sep 6CLECLE3@TBTB2
Sep 7CLECLE2@TBTB1

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Aug 25TBTB9@CLECLE0
Aug 26TBTB0@CLECLE3
Aug 27TBTB3@CLECLE4
Sep 4CLECLE2@TBTB4today
Sep 5CLECLE7@TBTB1
Sep 6CLECLE3@TBTB2
Sep 7CLECLE2@TBTB1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 9pp · Bottom 1st Inning

CLECLE
K. Manzardo

K. Manzardo

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

L. Allen

L. Allen

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

TBTB
C. Williams

C. Williams

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

R. Pepiot

R. Pepiot

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 2 BB

How it ended

TB beat CLE 4-2.

Win probability

TB vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 76% WP

Morel · singled to left, Caminero scored, Morel to second, B. Lowe to third.

TBBottom 4th Inning · 0-2
+8pp→ 85% WP

Williams · reached on infield single to shortstop, Morel scored, Mangum to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CLE0000000022
TB10010200—4

Period scoring

CLE won 0 · TB won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Morel 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Williams 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Lowe 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

2

Inn 9

Ram 1

CLE
TB

Play-by-play · 542 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

  2. T9

    Arias grounded out to second.

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

    +0.9pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

  7. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Gabriel Arias

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

  8. T9

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

  9. T9

    Hedges grounded out to first.

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

    +2pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

  11. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Austin Hedges

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

  12. T9

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

  13. T9

    Martínez struck out swinging.

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

    +3pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 10 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

  24. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Angel Martinez

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

  25. T9

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

  26. T9

    Manzardo homered to right (376 feet).

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

    −3pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 1·TB 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 1·TB 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CLE 1·TB 4

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

TB

Home

2

Runs

4

3

Hits

8

2

Errors

0

9

TB

8

2

HR

0

2

BB

2

13

K

7

9

LOB

17

Player projections

TB vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.0± 3.5low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    6.0± 4.2low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    5.8± 2.3low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Junior CamineroTB
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.1± 1.7high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Junior CamineroTB
    1.8± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Ryan ViladeTB
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Angel MartinezCLE
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    2.8± 2.5low
  • Joey CantilloCLE
    2.7± 3.0low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.8%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    56.5%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.0%

    P(TB win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.7%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.