MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+17TEX

LAA

62-71

320

TEX

68-67

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

22,353 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.3%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
58.6%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.1%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.8%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.07 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.7± 4.4low
Jose SorianoLAA
6.6± 2.9low
Jacob deGromTEX
6.3± 3.6low

Hits

Zach NetoLAA
1.1± 1.1high
Josh JungTEX
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Zach NetoLAA
2.1± 2.5high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.9± 2.4high
Joc PedersonTEX
1.9± 3.0high

RBIs

Vaughn GrissomLAA
1.0± 1.9high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.9± 1.4high
Mike TroutLAA
0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
4.0± 4.0low
Jack KochanowiczLAA
3.0± 2.9low
Jack LeiterTEX
3.0± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

LAA 3 · TEX 20 (by 17)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAA	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	3
TEX	4	3	0	4	1	0	8	0	20

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
Z. Neto★SS	2-4	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
SPRINT27.148
M. Trout★CF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. Ward★LF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
SPRINT27.457
J. Adell★RF	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
SPRINT27.867
L. Rengifo★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
L. O'Hoppe★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Moore★2B	2-4	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
O. Peraza★2B	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
SPRINT28.278
B. Teodosio★LF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. LugoLF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

Team	7-32	32	3	7	3	1	3	10

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

2-4

0-4

1-3

1-3

0-3

0-4

2-4

0-3

1-3

0-1

Team

7-32

	Pitching
J. Kochanowicz★SP	3.1	9	11	10	3	1	3
O. Peraza★2B	0.1	7	8	8	0	0	1
SPRINT28.278
A. ChafinRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	2	0
R. StephensonRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	0
J. FerminRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0
SPRINT27.148
N. Kavadas1B	1.2	3	0	0	1	1	0
Team	8.0	22	20	19	4	6	4

Pitching

Player

3.1

0.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.2

Team

8.0

	Batting
J. Smith★2B	1-6	6	1	1	0	0	0	1
W. Langford★LF	2-2	2	4	2	0	0	2	0
SPRINT2872
C. Seager★SS	2-2	2	3	2	2	1	1	0
SPRINT24.96
A. Garcia★RF	4-6	6	3	4	5	1	0	0
SPRINT26.735
J. Pederson★DH	2-6	6	3	2	5	1	0	1
SPRINT25.716
J. Jung★3B	3-6	6	1	3	1	0	0	0
R. Tellez★1B	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
K. Higashioka★C	2-5	5	1	2	5	1	0	1
SPRINT23.91
A. Osuna★LF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
M. HelmanCF	1-1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
E. Duran2B	2-3	3	1	2	2	0	0	0
C. Freeman3B	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team	22-46	46	20	22	20	4	4	6

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI