MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CLE

CLE

71-70

71-71

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida

10,046 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.5%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
55.9%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.1%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.1%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TB vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Drew RasmussenTB
6.0± 4.2low
Parker MessickCLE
5.8± 2.3low

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.3high
Jose RamirezCLE
1.1± 1.1high
Junior CamineroTB
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Yandy DiazTB
2.1± 1.7high
Jose RamirezCLE
2.0± 2.3high
Junior CamineroTB
1.8± 1.6high

RBIs

Ryan ViladeTB
0.8± 1.1high
Yandy DiazTB
0.8± 0.9high
Angel MartinezCLE
0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

Slade CecconiCLE
2.8± 2.5low
Joey CantilloCLE
2.7± 3.0low
Steven MatzTB
2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

.688

OPS

.715

▶

.722

.317

OBP

.319

▶

.336

4.01

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.57

3.80

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.91

1.26

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.22

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 3 · TB 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TB +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	3
TB	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. KwanCF	.275	4	0	2	1	0	1	0
G. ValeraLF	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. Ramirez3B	.283	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
K. Manzardo1B	.233	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
N. JonesRF	.217	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
D. SchneemannCF	.220	3	1	2	2	0	1	1
G. AriasSS	.221	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. NaylorC	.178	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. KayfusLF	.190	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
A. MartinezLF	.224	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. RocchioSS	.230	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		32	3	7	3	0	4	14

Player

AVG

RBI

.275

.250

.283

.233

.217

.220

.221

.178

.190

.224

.230

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
T. BibeeSP	6.2	5	2	2	1	3	92
E. SabrowskiRP	0.1	0	0	0	2	0	15
H. GaddisRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
C. SmithRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
Team	9.0	6	2	2	3	6	138

Player

6.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

138

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. SimpsonLF	.288	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. DiazDH	.293	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. Lowe2B	.262	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Caminero3B	.261	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. LoweLF	.243	3	1	1	1	1	1	1
J. MangumLF	.296	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Palacios2B	.267	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. FeducciaC	.127	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Gray3B	.237	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
C. Morel1B	.227	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Seymour1B	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. FortesC	.143	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. WilliamsSS	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		28	2	6	2	1	3	6

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. BazSP	5.0	5	2	2	1	8	82
G. CleavingerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	12
B. BakerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	21
E. UcetaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
P. FairbanksRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	21
Team	9.0	7	3	3	4	14	147

Team

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

TB vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TB vs CLE.

3 sub-models, blended.