• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Live · 8
  • MLBTop 3
    TOR 0@BAL 0
    -14.8pphigh
  • MLBBot 1
    MIA 0@NYM 0
    +5.7ppmedium
  • MLBBot 2
    MIN 1@PIT 2
    +29.4ppmedium
  • MLBTop 3
    SD 1@WSH 0
    -33.7ppmedium
  • MLBTop 3
    KC 0@TEX 1
    +10.4pphigh
  • MLBBot 2
    BOS 0@CLE 1
    +23.8pplow
  • MLBBot 2
    MIL 1@HOU 0
    -10.1ppmedium
  • MLBBot 1
    LAA 4@TB 1
    -52.8ppmedium
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+4MIA
MIA

MIA

65-72

5
1
NYM

NYM

73-64

Citi Field · Queens, New York
43,302 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 5 · NYM 1 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA1021100005
NYM0000001001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 64-42
62%Last 30 · 327-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 4, 25sim 98
    52
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 98
    53
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 97
    50
    13(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 4, 25sim 97
    33
    7(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 97
    232
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 96
    300
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 31·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins went into New York Mets and beat them, 5–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Agustin Ramirez

Agustin Ramirez

C

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Jeff McNeil

Jeff McNeil

2B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA65-72
5
1
NYM73-64
MIA65-72·NYM73-64
MIA

MIA

65-72

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
2-55020001
SPRINT2872
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
2-33220020
SPRINT27.765
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
2-44122111
SPRINT27.354
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
0-22001011
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
1-44110000
SPRINT25.614
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
2-44021002
SPRINT28.483
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
0-44000002
J. WiemerJ. Wiemer★RF
0-44000002
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
1-44110001
Team10-343451041410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. AlcantaraS. Alcantara★SP
7.0411160
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
1.0100020
F. TarnokF. TarnokRP
1.0000110
Team9.0511290
NYM

NYM

73-64

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
1-44010001
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT25.513
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-33010011
SPRINT28.278
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-44000001
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
2-44120000
SPRINT25.920
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
0-22000011
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
0-44000002
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
0-44001001
SPRINT27.662
H. SengerH. Senger★C
0-22000000
S. MarteS. MarteRF
0-11000001
Team5-3232151029
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. SengaK. Senga★SP
4.2755261
B. WaddellB. WaddellRP
4.1300240
Team9.010554101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • S. Alcantara
    104 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      33%·97.1 mph·7% whiff
    • FF
      24%·98.8 mph·24% whiff
    • CH
      21%·91.1 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      13%·90.6 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      9%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Faucher
    22 pitches·41% CSW
    • FC
      27%·92.0 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      27%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      23%·86.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      18%·96.9 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      5%·97.2 mph·100% whiff
  • F. Tarnok
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      35%·95.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      30%·79.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·85.7 mph·— whiff

NYM

  • K. Senga
    75 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      39%·94.8 mph·14% whiff
    • FO
      29%·82.3 mph·73% whiff
    • FC
      21%·88.7 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      8%·80.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      3%·88.8 mph·— whiff
  • B. Waddell
    58 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      33%·79.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      28%·91.1 mph·10% whiff
    • FF
      17%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      12%·86.6 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      10%·83.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

5

5

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

MIA wins series 4-3

Apr 7MIAMIA0@NYMNYM2
Apr 8MIAMIA5@NYMNYM10
Apr 9MIAMIA5@NYMNYM0
Aug 28MIAMIA7@NYMNYM4
Aug 29MIAMIA9@NYMNYM19
Aug 30MIAMIA11@NYMNYM8
Aug 31MIAMIA5@NYMNYM1today

Season series

Series tied 5-5

Mar 31NYMNYM10@MIAMIA4
Apr 1NYMNYM2@MIAMIA4
Apr 2NYMNYM6@MIAMIA5
Apr 7MIAMIA0@NYMNYM2
Apr 8MIAMIA5@NYMNYM10
Apr 9MIAMIA5@NYMNYM0
Aug 28MIAMIA7@NYMNYM4
Aug 29MIAMIA9@NYMNYM19
Aug 30MIAMIA11@NYMNYM8
Aug 31MIAMIA5@NYMNYM1today
Sep 26NYMNYM2@MIAMIA6
Sep 27NYMNYM5@MIAMIA0
Sep 28NYMNYM0@MIAMIA4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 21pp · Top 3rd Inning

MIAMIA
A. Ramirez

A. Ramirez

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

S. Alcantara

S. Alcantara

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

NYMNYM
J. McNeil

J. McNeil

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

K. Senga

K. Senga

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIA beat NYM 5-1. Ram's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYM vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIATop 3rd Inning · 3-0
+21pp→ 63% WP

Ram · írez homered to left center (386 feet), Marsee scored.

MIATop 4th Inning · 4-0
+7pp→ 81% WP

Hern · ández singled to right, Hicks scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA1021100005
NYM0000001001

Period scoring

MIA won 4 · NYM won 1

1
0

Inn 1

Lopez 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Ram 2

1
0

Inn 4

Hern 1

1
0

Inn 5

Edwards 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Mullins 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

MIA
NYM

Play-by-play · 549 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  2. B9

    ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  3. B9

    Mullins grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Vientos out at second.

    · ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  9. B9

    Freddy Tarnok pitches to Cedric Mullins

    · ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  10. B9

    · ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  11. B9

    Baty struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

    −1pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  18. B9

    Freddy Tarnok pitches to Brett Baty

    · ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  19. B9

    ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  20. B9

    Vientos walked.

    ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

    +0.9pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  27. B9

    Freddy Tarnok pitches to Mark Vientos

    ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  28. B9

    ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

  29. B9

    McNeil grounded out to first.

    ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

    −0.5pp

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 5·NYM 1

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

5

Runs

1

10

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

16

TB

7

1

HR

0

4

BB

2

10

K

9

15

LOB

12

Player projections

NYM vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.9%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    55.8%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.6%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.6%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.68 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872