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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1SEA
ATH

ATH

59-71

2
3
SEA

SEA

69-60

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
36,958 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

ATH 2 · SEA 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH1000000012
SEA000010203

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 22·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off Athletics, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Brent Rooker

Brent Rooker

DH

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Jorge Polanco

Jorge Polanco

1B

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH59-71
2
3
SEA69-60
ATH59-71·SEA69-60
ATH

ATH

59-71

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
0-33000011
SPRINT26.632
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
0-44000004
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
2-33221111
SPRINT27.148
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT26.735
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
1-44011000
SPRINT27.148
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
0-33000011
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
0-44000000
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
0-44000003
B. HarrisB. Harris★3B
0-22000000
C. CortesC. CortesRF
1-11010000
SPRINT25.716
Team5-32322521311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. MoralesL. Morales★SP
6.0211061
E. AlvaradoE. AlvaradoRP
1.0222012
J. SternerJ. SternerRP
1.0100010
Team8.0533083
SEA

SEA

69-60

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-44000001
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-33000001
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-33000000
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-33111100
SPRINT23.81
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-33111100
SPRINT25.818
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
2-33121101
SPRINT25.310
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
0-33000003
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
1-33010000
SPRINT25.513
C. YoungC. Young★2B
0-33000002
Team5-2828353308
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. WooB. Woo★SP
7.0111271
M. BrashM. BrashRP
0.2100010
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
0.1000010
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.0311120
Team9.05223111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

SEA

  • G. Speier
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      53%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·84.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Munoz
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      43%·97.5 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      43%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·89.9 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

5

2

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

SEA wins series 4-3

Mar 28ATHATH2@SEASEA4
Mar 29ATHATH7@SEASEA0
Mar 30ATHATH4@SEASEA2
Mar 30ATHATH1@SEASEA2
Aug 23ATHATH2@SEASEA3today
Aug 24ATHATH2@SEASEA1
Aug 24ATHATH4@SEASEA11

Season series

SEA leads series 6-5

Mar 28ATHATH2@SEASEA4
Mar 29ATHATH7@SEASEA0
Mar 30ATHATH4@SEASEA2
Mar 30ATHATH1@SEASEA2
May 6SEASEA6@ATHATH7
May 7SEASEA5@ATHATH3
May 7SEASEA6@ATHATH5
Jul 29SEASEA3@ATHATH1
Jul 30SEASEA1@ATHATH6
Jul 31SEASEA4@ATHATH5
Aug 23ATHATH2@SEASEA3today
Aug 24ATHATH2@SEASEA1
Aug 24ATHATH4@SEASEA11

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 9th Inning

ATHATH
B. Rooker

B. Rooker

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

L. Morales

L. Morales

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 2 H

SEASEA
J. Polanco

J. Polanco

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

B. Woo

B. Woo

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SEA beat ATH 3-2. Hernaiz's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

SEA vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 5th Inning · 1-1
+16pp→ 66% WP

Suárez homered to left (373 feet).

SEABottom 7th Inning · 1-2
+19pp→ 84% WP

Naylor · homered to right center (397 feet).

SEATop 9th Inning · 2-3
+19pp→ 81% WP

Hernaiz · flied out to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH1000000012
SEA00001020—3

Period scoring

ATH won 1 · SEA won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Rooker 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
2

Inn 7

Naylor 1

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

Wilson 1

ATH
SEA

Play-by-play · 490 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    ATH 2·SEA 3

  2. T9

    Bleday struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 2·SEA 3

    +19pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 2·SEA 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 2·SEA 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 2·SEA 3

  6. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to JJ Bleday

    · ·

    ATH 2·SEA 3

  7. T9

    · ·

    ATH 2·SEA 3

  8. T9

    Hernaiz flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 2·SEA 3

    +19pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 2·SEA 3

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 2·SEA 3

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 2·SEA 3

  12. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Darell Hernaiz

    · ·

    ATH 2·SEA 3

  13. T9

    · ·

    ATH 2·SEA 3

  14. T9

    Butler walked, Thomas to second, Soderstrom to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 2·SEA 3

    −15pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    ATH 2·SEA 3

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ATH 2·SEA 3

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 2·SEA 3

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 2·SEA 3

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 2·SEA 3

  20. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Lawrence Butler

    · ·

    ATH 2·SEA 3

  21. T9

    Thomas ran for Wilson

    ·

    ATH 2·SEA 3

  22. T9

    · ·

    ATH 2·SEA 3

  23. T9

    Wilson singled to center, Rooker scored, Soderstrom to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 2·SEA 3

    −9pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 2·SEA 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 1·SEA 3

  26. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Jacob Wilson

    · ·

    ATH 2·SEA 3

  27. T9

    · ·

    ATH 1·SEA 3

  28. T9

    Soderstrom singled to left, Rooker to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 1·SEA 3

    −6pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 1·SEA 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 1·SEA 3

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

2

Runs

3

5

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

9

TB

14

1

HR

3

3

BB

0

11

K

8

13

LOB

2

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

SEA vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low
  • Bryan WooSEA
    5.1± 4.1low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.1%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    56.1%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.4%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.6%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.21 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 19, 25sim 97
    132
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 28, 25sim 96
    304
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 96
    53
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 96
    112
    12(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 96
    284
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 95
    301
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs