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Live · 4
  • MLBEnd 1
    ATL 0@CIN 0
    -5.1ppmedium
  • MLBTop 2
    CHC 1@STL 0
    -32.7ppmedium
  • MLBBot 9
    LAA 14@TB 3
    -71.5pplow
  • WNBA6:51 - 3rd
    LA 41@CON 48
    +41.5pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CIN
TB

TB

53-53

1
2
CIN

CIN

56-50

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
20,258 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

TB 1 · CIN 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CIN +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0000000101
CIN200000002

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

58%Last 7 · 66-47
61%Last 30 · 329-206
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 28, 25sim 96
    304
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 95
    112
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 95
    112
    12(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 95
    32
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 95
    172
    25(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 95
    53
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Jul 27·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds held off Tampa Bay Rays, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Taylor Walls

Taylor Walls

SS

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
TJ Friedl

TJ Friedl

CF

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB53-53
1
2
CIN56-50
TB53-53·CIN56-50
TB

TB

53-53

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT29.496
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
0-33000001
SPRINT25.716
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
0-33000012
SPRINT25.29
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
0-44000001
SPRINT25.716
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
0-33000001
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
0-33000000
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
0-33000003
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
2-33121101
SPRINT27.765
M. ThaissM. Thaiss★C
0-22000001
Team3-28281311110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BazS. Baz★SP
5.0522250
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
1.0000020
M. EnglertM. EnglertRP
1.0000010
I. SeymourI. SeymourRP
1.0000000
Team8.0522280
CIN

CIN

56-50

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
1-33110010
SPRINT26.838
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
1-44110001
SPRINT28.586
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
0-44000003
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
1-44011000
SPRINT27.354
G. LuxG. Lux★LF
1-33011000
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
1-33010002
SPRINT28.992
J. FraleyJ. Fraley★RF
0-33000001
J. TrevinoJ. Trevino★C
0-33000001
S. EspinalS. Espinal★3B
0-22000010
Team5-2929252028
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SingerB. Singer★SP
7.1311181
T. SantillanT. SantillanRP
0.2000010
E. PaganE. PaganRP
1.0000010
Team9.03111101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • S. Baz
    100 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      40%·96.8 mph·27% whiff
    • KC
      31%·85.4 mph·36% whiff
    • FC
      22%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·87.3 mph·50% whiff
  • I. Seymour
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • CH
      53%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      20%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    12 pitches·67% CSW
    • FF
      83%·99.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      17%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Englert
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • CH
      40%·88.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      40%·87.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      10%·94.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      10%·93.8 mph·— whiff

CIN

  • B. Singer
    97 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      48%·92.4 mph·16% whiff
    • SL
      20%·83.4 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      14%·91.7 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      9%·87.2 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      8%·81.9 mph·33% whiff
  • E. Pagan
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      46%·96.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      38%·83.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      15%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Santillan
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      100%·95.5 mph·40% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

5

1

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

CIN wins series 3-0

Jul 25TBTB2@CINCIN7
Jul 26TBTB2@CINCIN6
Jul 27TBTB1@CINCIN2today

Season series

CIN wins series 3-0

Jul 25TBTB2@CINCIN7
Jul 26TBTB2@CINCIN6
Jul 27TBTB1@CINCIN2today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 10pp · Top 8th Inning

TBTB
T. Walls

T. Walls

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

S. Baz

S. Baz

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

CINCIN
T. Friedl

T. Friedl

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.833 OPS

B. Singer

B. Singer

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.1 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CIN beat TB 2-1.

Win probability

CIN vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 71% WP

Hays · reached on infield single to second, Friedl scored, McLain to second.

TBTop 8th Inning · 1-2
+10pp→ 19% WP

Walls · homered to right center (401 feet).

CINTop 9th Inning · 1-2
+7pp→ 89% WP

Díaz struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0000000101
CIN20000000—2

Period scoring

TB won 1 · CIN won 1

0
2

Inn 1

Hays 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Walls 1

0

Inn 9

TB
CIN

Play-by-play · 491 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

  2. T9

    Caminero flied out to shortstop.

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

    +4pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

  5. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Junior Caminero

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

  6. T9

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

  7. T9

    Aranda flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

    +6pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

  9. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

  15. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Jonathan Aranda

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

  16. T9

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

  17. T9

    Díaz struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

    +7pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

  22. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Yandy Diaz

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

  23. T9

    Pagán relieved Santillan

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

  24. T9

    Joe in left field.

    TB 1·CIN 2

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TB 1·CIN 2

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TB 1·CIN 2

  27. B8

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

  28. B8

    Hays flied out to center.

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

    −1pp

  29. B8

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

  30. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    TB 1·CIN 2

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

1

Runs

2

3

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

6

TB

5

1

HR

0

1

BB

2

10

K

8

6

LOB

8

Player projections

CIN vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low
  • Shane McClanahanTB
    5.0± 1.8low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.7%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    55.8%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.8%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.7%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483