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FINAL+3KC
TEX

TEX

62-65

2
5
KC

KC

65-61

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
14,176 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

TEX 2 · KC 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX1001000002
KC100001125

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Aug 19·Final/SeriesKC wins series 3-1

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals held off Texas Rangers, 5–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Corey Seager

Corey Seager

SS

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Vinnie Pasquantino

Vinnie Pasquantino

1B

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX62-65
2
5
KC65-61
TEX62-65·KC65-61
TEX

TEX

62-65

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
0-33000000
SPRINT27.354
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
0-33000013
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
1-33111100
SPRINT24.96
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
1-44111100
SPRINT25.716
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
0-33000010
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-33000011
R. TellezR. Tellez★1B
1-22010000
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF
0-22000001
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
1-22010010
SPRINT25.18
C. FreemanC. Freeman3B
0-11000000
J. JungJ. Jung3B
0-22000000
E. DuranE. Duran2B
0-11000000
Team4-2929242245
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KellyM. Kelly★SP
6.0222032
C. WinnC. WinnRP
1.1122121
D. CoulombeD. CoulombeRP
0.2000010
Team8.0655163
KC

KC

65-61

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
1-33211110
SPRINT2744
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-44112100
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
2-33221101
SPRINT25.411
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT27.765
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
0-22000000
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
0-22001001
JJ. Rave★RF
0-33000002
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
0-33000000
L. MaileL. Maile★C
0-33000001
R. GrichukR. GrichukRF
1-22010001
SPRINT26.735
Team6-2929565316
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. LugoS. Lugo★SP
6.1322252
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
1.2100100
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
1.0000100
Team9.0422452

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • M. Kelly
    71 pitches·28% CSW
    • CH
      24%·87.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      24%·90.3 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      18%·90.3 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      14%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Winn
    29 pitches·24% CSW
    • FC
      41%·91.6 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      28%·96.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      14%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·94.3 mph·— whiff
  • H. Milner
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • SI
      45%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      45%·79.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·88.0 mph·— whiff
  • D. Coulombe
    7 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      71%·90.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      14%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·89.2 mph·— whiff

KC

  • S. Lugo
    102 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      28%·91.9 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      19%·79.2 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      18%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      9%·77.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      8%·87.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      6%·91.7 mph·33% whiff
    • CS
      5%·70.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      3%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    29 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      52%·96.9 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      17%·90.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      14%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • FF
      36%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      27%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·92.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

6

2

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

KC wins series 3-1

Aug 18TEXTEX3@KCKC4
Aug 19TEXTEX2@KCKC5today
Aug 20TEXTEX6@KCKC3
Aug 21TEXTEX4@KCKC6

Season series

KC leads series 5-0

Jun 18KCKC6@TEXTEX1
Jun 19KCKC6@TEXTEX3
Jun 19KCKC4@TEXTEX1
Aug 18TEXTEX3@KCKC4
Aug 19TEXTEX2@KCKC5today
Aug 20TEXTEX6@KCKC3
Aug 21TEXTEX4@KCKC6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 21pp · Bottom 6th Inning

TEXTEX
C. Seager

C. Seager

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

M. Kelly

M. Kelly

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 2 H

KCKC
V. Pasquantino

V. Pasquantino

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

S. Lugo

S. Lugo

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

KC beat TEX 5-2. Yastrzemski's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Win probability

KC vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXTop 4th Inning · 2-1
+14pp→ 61% WP

Pederson · homered to right (428 feet).

KCBottom 6th Inning · 2-2
+21pp→ 52% WP

Yastrzemski · homered to right (405 feet).

TEXTop 8th Inning · 2-3
+20pp→ 34% WP

Heim · singled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX1001000002
KC10000112—5

Period scoring

TEX won 1 · KC won 3

1
1

Inn 1

Seager 1

Pasquantino 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Pederson 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Yastrzemski 1

0
1

Inn 7

India 1

0
2

Inn 8

Jr. 2

0

Inn 9

TEX
KC

Play-by-play · 508 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

  2. T9

    Jung flied out to right.

    · ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

    +0.9pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

  5. T9

    John Schreiber pitches to Josh Jung

    · ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

  6. T9

    ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

  7. T9

    Semien walked.

    ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

    −0.5pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

  13. T9

    John Schreiber pitches to Marcus Semien

    ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

  14. T9

    ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

  15. T9

    Carter lined out to right.

    ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

    +0.8pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

  18. T9

    John Schreiber pitches to Evan Carter

    ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

  19. T9

    ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

  20. T9

    Pederson grounded out to second.

    ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

    +2pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

  23. T9

    John Schreiber pitches to Joc Pederson

    ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

  24. T9

    Schreiber relieved Zerpa

    ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TEX 2·KC 5

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TEX 2·KC 5

  27. B8

    · ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

  28. B8

    Grichuk struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

  29. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

  30. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 2·KC 5

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

KC

Home

2

Runs

5

4

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

10

TB

16

2

HR

3

4

BB

1

5

K

6

7

LOB

8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 18, 25sim 98
    133
    7(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 97
    112
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 97
    173
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 96
    134
    7(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 28, 25sim 96
    304
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 96
    283
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

KC vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    5.7± 3.1low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 3.0high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Jake BurgerTEX
    0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.9%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    56.0%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.2%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.2%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872