MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CLE

CLE

58-55

NYM

63-51

Citi Field · Queens, New York

39,895 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.0%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
54.8%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.6%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.4%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYM vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.2± 2.8low
Parker MessickCLE
5.8± 2.3low

Hits

Jose RamirezCLE
1.1± 1.1high
Carson BengeNYM
1.1± 1.5high
A.J. EwingNYM
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Carson BengeNYM
2.1± 3.6high
Jose RamirezCLE
2.0± 2.3high
Jared YoungNYM
1.8± 2.1high

RBIs

Bo BichetteNYM
0.6± 1.1high
Juan SotoNYM
0.6± 1.3high
Angel MartinezCLE
0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

Slade CecconiCLE
2.8± 2.5low
Joey CantilloCLE
2.7± 3.0low
David PetersonNYM
2.6± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

NYM

.689

OPS

◀

.715

.663

.317

OBP

◀

.319

.292

4.03

Runs / G

4.50

4.03

3.79

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.89

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.28

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 3 · NYM 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	3
NYM	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. KwanCF	.285	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
D. SchneemannCF	.232	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Ramirez3B	.296	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
K. Manzardo1B	.235	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. NaylorC	.179	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. AriasSS	.236	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
A. MartinezLF	.233	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. KayfusLF	.167	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. RocchioSS	.231	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
N. JonesRF	.216	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Santana1B	.229	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. FryRF	.172	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. HedgesC	.133	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	3	6	3	0	1	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.285

.232

.296

.235

.179

.236

.233

.167

.231

.216

.229

.172

.133

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
L. AllenRP	5.0	4	2	1	4	6	88
M. FestaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
K. AllardRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	16
J. JunisRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	4
C. SmithRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17
Team	9.0	4	2	1	4	9	139

Player

5.0

1.0

1.1

0.2

1.0

Team

9.0

139

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. MarteRF	.269	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. LindorSS	.251	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. SotoLF	.249	2	0	0	0	0	2	2
P. Alonso1B	.267	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. NimmoRF	.255	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Vientos1B	.232	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. McNeil2B	.252	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
F. AlvarezC	.247	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
T. TaylorCF	.200	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
Team		29	2	4	2	0	4	9

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. HolmesSP	5.0	3	2	2	1	6	75
G. SotoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
T. RogersRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	23
B. RaleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
R. HelsleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
Team	9.0	6	3	3	1	9	133

Team

CLE

NYM

3 sub-models, blended.

NYM vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs CLE.

3 sub-models, blended.