MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2MIA

MIA

76-80

TEX

79-77

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

27,331 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.1%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
56.6%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.4%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.1%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.4± 1.9low
Jacob deGromTEX
6.3± 3.5low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
5.8± 2.8low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.6± 1.1high
Josh JungTEX
1.2± 0.8high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
1.1± 1.4high

Total bases

Otto LopezMIA
2.3± 2.0high
Josh JungTEX
1.7± 1.5high
Heriberto HernandezMIA
1.6± 2.4high

RBIs

Kyle StowersMIA
0.7± 1.1high
Elias DiazTEX
0.7± 1.1low
Heriberto HernandezMIA
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.3± 3.6low
Jack LeiterTEX
2.9± 2.6low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
2.7± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

TEX

.706

OPS

.715

.700

.324

OBP

◀

.319

.317

4.31

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

4.11

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.71

1.25

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.23

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 4 · TEX 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	0	0	2	1	0	1	0	0	4
TEX	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. MarseeCF	.319	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. RamirezC	.234	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
X. Edwards2B	.281	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
L. HicksC	.245	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. LopezSS	.248	4	1	3	1	0	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.277	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. HernandezLF	.263	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
G. Pauley3B	.235	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
B. Navarreto1B	.300	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
D. MyersCF	.235	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. WiemerRF	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Norby1B	.254	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Wagaman1B	.248	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	4	11	4	0	0	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.319

.234

.281

.245

.248

.277

.263

.235

.300

.235

.250

.254

.248

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
E. PerezSP	4.0	2	0	0	1	9	88
L. BacharRP	2.0	3	2	2	1	2	40
R. HenriquezRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	14
M. PetersenRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
G. SorianoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
Team	9.0	5	2	2	3	13	162

Player

4.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

162

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. PedersonDH	.180	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. LangfordLF	.242	2	1	1	1	1	2	1
A. OsunaLF	.209	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Tellez1B	.264	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Jung3B	.253	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
C. Freeman3B	.229	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
J. HeimC	.215	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
E. Duran2B	.230	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. HelmanCF	.247	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Smith2B	.251	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. HigashiokaC	.246	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	2	5	2	1	3	13

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. KellySP	4.1	7	3	3	0	4	73
J. LatzRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	10
C. WinnRP	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	13
R. GarciaRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	9
S. ArmstrongRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	14
P. MatonRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	2	12
Team	9.0	11	4	4	0	9	131

Team

MIA

TEX

3 sub-models, blended.

TEX vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.