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  • MLBMid 7
    MIN 7@PIT 8
    +34.9ppmedium
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FINAL+2TB
TB

TB

54-53

4
2
NYY

NYY

57-49

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
37,308 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 4 · NYY 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB2000100104
NYY2000000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Jul 28·Final/SeriesNYY win series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays went into New York Yankees and beat them, 4–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Jonny DeLuca

Jonny DeLuca

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Amed Rosario

Amed Rosario

3B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB54-53
4
2
NYY57-49
TB54-53·NYY57-49
TB

TB

54-53

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
0-44000001
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
0-22101022
SPRINT25.716
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
2-44120010
SPRINT25.29
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
1-55112100
SPRINT25.716
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
2-44021011
SPRINT27.251
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
0-44000012
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
1-22010000
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
2-44020000
M. ThaissM. Thaiss★C
1-44010002
J. DeLucaJ. DeLucaRF
1-11010000
J. CaballeroJ. CaballeroSS
1-22110001
SPRINT28.278
Team11-36364114159
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. RasmussenD. Rasmussen★SP
5.0422250
E. UcetaE. UcetaRP
2.0000040
G. CleavingerG. CleavingerRP
0.2100000
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
1.1100010
Team9.06222100
NYY

NYY

57-49

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-44000001
J. DominguezJ. Dominguez★LF
2-33120000
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-44110000
SPRINT27.560
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
1-44010002
SPRINT23.81
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
0-33001012
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
0-44000001
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
1-33011011
SPRINT2622
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-44000001
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
0-33000002
A. RosarioA. Rosario3B
1-11010000
SPRINT28.278
Team6-33332620210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SchlittlerC. Schlittler★SP
4.1733451
B. HeadrickB. HeadrickRP
1.2000030
I. HamiltonI. HamiltonRP
0.1100100
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
0.2111010
T. HillT. HillRP
1.0200000
J. BrubakerJ. BrubakerRP
1.0000000
Team9.01144591

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • D. Rasmussen
    81 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      42%·95.8 mph·12% whiff
    • FC
      30%·89.9 mph·30% whiff
    • SI
      21%·95.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      4%·80.6 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      2%·84.1 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      1%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Uceta
    23 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      43%·95.0 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      39%·89.6 mph·80% whiff
    • FC
      9%·89.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      4%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      4%·83.2 mph·— whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • SL
      53%·86.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      47%·97.7 mph·14% whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • SI
      42%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·81.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      25%·86.8 mph·50% whiff

NYY

  • C. Schlittler
    86 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      73%·98.0 mph·31% whiff
    • FC
      13%·90.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      8%·84.2 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      6%·89.0 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Headrick
    17 pitches·65% CSW
    • FF
      88%·95.1 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      12%·82.9 mph·100% whiff
  • L. Weaver
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      69%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·87.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      6%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Hill
    15 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      80%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Brubaker
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      46%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·87.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      15%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Hamilton
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      67%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·86.7 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

6

4

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

NYY win series 4-3

May 2TBTB0@NYYNYY3
May 3TBTB3@NYYNYY2
May 4TBTB7@NYYNYY5
Jul 28TBTB4@NYYNYY2today
Jul 29TBTB5@NYYNYY7
Jul 30TBTB4@NYYNYY5
Jul 31TBTB4@NYYNYY7

Season series

Series tied 4-4

Apr 17NYYNYY6@TBTB3
Apr 18NYYNYY1@TBTB0
Apr 19NYYNYY8@TBTB10
Apr 20NYYNYY4@TBTB0
May 2TBTB0@NYYNYY3
May 3TBTB3@NYYNYY2
May 4TBTB7@NYYNYY5
Jul 28TBTB4@NYYNYY2today
Jul 29TBTB5@NYYNYY7
Jul 30TBTB4@NYYNYY5
Jul 31TBTB4@NYYNYY7
Aug 19NYYNYY13@TBTB3
Aug 20NYYNYY6@TBTB4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 1st Inning

TBTB
J. DeLuca

J. DeLuca

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

D. Rasmussen

D. Rasmussen

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

NYYNYY
A. Rosario

A. Rosario

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

C. Schlittler

C. Schlittler

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 4 BB

How it ended

TB beat NYY 4-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYY vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+17pp→ 74% WP

Caminero · homered to left center (397 feet), Aranda scored.

TBTop 5th Inning · 3-2
+15pp→ 72% WP

J. Lowe · singled to center, Díaz scored, Aranda to third.

TBTop 7th Inning · 3-2
+12pp→ 83% WP

Aranda · doubled to right, Díaz to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB2000100104
NYY2000000002

Period scoring

TB won 2 · NYY won 0

2
2

Inn 1

Caminero 2

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Lowe 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

TB
NYY

Play-by-play · 577 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TB 4·NYY 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  3. B9

    Wells lined out to center.

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  6. B9

    McMahon to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  7. B9

    McMahon to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  10. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Austin Wells

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  11. B9

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  12. B9

    McMahon singled to right.

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

    +3pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  15. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Ryan McMahon

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  16. B9

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  17. B9

    Goldschmidt grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

    −3pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  22. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Paul Goldschmidt

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  23. B9

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  24. B9

    Chisholm Jr. flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

    −5pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  26. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  27. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  30. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Jazz Chisholm Jr.

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

4

Runs

2

11

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

15

TB

6

1

HR

0

5

BB

2

9

K

10

25

LOB

10

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jonny DeLucaTB · RF
    SPRINT2993
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Amed RosarioNYY · 3B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.0± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.2%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    56.5%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.3%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.8%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.21 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 22, 25sim 96
    32
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 96
    304
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 96
    132
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 96
    112
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 96
    301
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 95
    284
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs